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Yes, possibly so but I think the USN will be the losers there, long supply lines, no will to fight in DC.

And traitors in our midst handing the PLAN our secrets and codes.

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Those in DC go off and chase their grandiose dreams, while in the real world the hard hand of war still reigns supreme....

Hey, that rhymed!

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Indeed!

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I can see future operational reasons for the PRC learning more about those areas. “You fight the way you train,” right? I also sure Sun Tzu said something about making the most of all your opportunities.

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founding

But...but....

CLIMATE CHANGE!!!!!!!

Thats the priority.

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No reason to worry about a Pacific Island strategy. They will all be underwater in ten years anyway.

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author

That right there might be the comment of the week.

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It will only take about a 1 foot rise in the South China Sea to put all of China's bases built on atolls like the Paracels and the Spratley's to be underwater and useless.

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So...what you're saying is maybe Climate Change isn't all bad?

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The PLA doesn't need to complete five years' worth of environmental impacts statements and spend another ten years in court before commencing dredging. They will have no problem keeping their bases above sea level should the need arise.

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The CCP declaring that they were building up the PLAN to take the Pacific away from PACFLT, could be taken as a subtle hint as to their intentions.

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The Chinese have the same right as any other nation to freely navigate the open seas and build up a preeminent navy. Why not? If that sucks then let's remember who is creating the vacuum. I can hear the Orffish music when I read this.

O Fortuna, like the moon, with an ever-changing state

Always waxing or waning

The gifts she gives to me, she snatches away

Truly it is said, Fortuna has a full head of hair

But when your opportunity is there!—she is bald

The wheel of fortune turns; I descend, having been brought down

Another is raised up; he is exalted—too much!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AP_CSQgBPpQ

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Because the CCP doesn't believe in "open seas"...

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War Plan Orange. China learned it. Backward to front.

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founding

The Chinese didn't raise a generation of Really Smart People who think they don't need to learn from History, because its over.

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If they think the next war will be fought like the last WW, they are in for a few surprises.

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When can we get a good IADS on Guam? Also, there's been some clearance of the old airfields at Tinian in the past decade. Let's run that again.

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Apr 25, 2023·edited Apr 25, 2023

Belt and Road. Belt and Road. all the goodies and markets China needs lie in Africa, mid-East, central Asia, Siberia....a bit of Australia. Need a decent Navy to absolutely dominate the Indian Ocean, Malacca Strait, keep pesky American's off our backs.

A lot easier to move armies westward than to try to rehash Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere; and those little central Asian countries? why, they're not really sovereign states anyway.....

Uhm, Siberia? lets make nice with old nemesis Russia, while we build up nuclear forces. Then we can wave a Sino-Russian MAD at em while we pull an Asian version of Barbarossa. (neat that Ukraine is bleeding them for us a bit)

Taiwan? phooey. let little bro NORKs start tossing a fit and stuff around, distract both the US and Japan, why, we can then slip over and reunify with no problem at all.

Lets build that Navy first though. Yep, let's do that........

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It took about 15 years for the USN and IJN to go from experiments with carrier aviation to the Battle of Midway. The PLAN is about five years into this learning curve.

Also, watch for tests of coordinated MPRF and ASBM operations. The find-fix-fire chain has a lot of potential problems.

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My guess is they've read a few books, watched a few videos and purloined the appropriate USN material. IMO? They cut five years off.

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founding

It is difficult for me to believe that those that "lead" the Navy do not take the Chinese more seriously. They have been very transparent in communicating what it is that they are in the process of doing. Apparently, in order to be on the top rungs all you have to do is buy into the woke messaging and be ignorant of what your job truly is in lieu of doing your duty.

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Those that lead are selected for the yes and follow, they are not the men and women of even ten years ago.

All that military melted after Kabul now it is fighting climate change and racism, training against Homophobia and Normal sexual preferences.

The first day of any War with China is going to be a bloody, gut bustin' Navy war Let's hope the right people rise up to defend us.

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Give them credit; if they win, they deserve to.

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There it is, they are working on it paying dues, and bleeding while training.

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The CCP may “have the Americans in Guam staring them in the face” but I doubt if the Americans will do anything to thwart China’s actions.

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If we are lucky the Chinese will allow us the eastern Pacific from Hawaii to California.

The days of freedom of the seas will be guaranteed by the Chinese Navy.

All according to the "Plan" ™ Global Elites.

Somehow I believe they won't like it when it happens.

Then the US will feel some sanctions.

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"They have a long way to go up the learning curve in conducting carrier operations. They know it, but they are not discouraged.."

- Why? The first day/week of the war is going to go them and they will replay December 1941. We on the other hand won't be able be able to reprise even the carrier raids of February 1942.

We can only hope their ASW is atrocious and our skippers are allowed to go full Lockwood.

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Need more weapons and more places to reload. Need State Dept to get off their tails and finalize updated Compacts of Free Association with CNMI, FSM, ROP, RMI.

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We need the sea train that "will be ready to conduct prompt and sustained combat incident to operations at sea."

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And we can hope that our ASW is not anemic as well. As I mentioned over on Eagle One's substack post last week, I think it is not unreasonable to expect that PLAN submarine forces will extend as least as far as they can maintain maritime aerial reconnaissance. How much of the South China Sea and Philippine Sea that encompasses we will just have to find out.

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Apr 26, 2023·edited Apr 26, 2023

Unfortunately, a geographic barrier is only as good as the will and resources to defend it. The Phillipines is poor. South Korea and Japan face a demographic crisis. And which of them will voluntarily join a woke, weak, bankrupt, demoralized and corrupt USA? It is most likely that in any future conflict the US will stand alone. Why should White sailors fight and die for a culturecthat hates them and has no use for them? Why should Black and Hispanic sailors die for a culture they have been told is racist, sexist, homophobic and not worth defending? Especially when they are going to be outnumbered, outclassed, and will have 0 public support. I predict the PLAN is going to have a very easy time.

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I just like the name: People’s Liberation Army Navy. 😂😂

When they play their annual football game against the People’s Liberation Army, is it the “Army Army Navy” game? Are some on the Army Navy side really just on the Army side and screw up on purpose to throw the game? Or the other way around? Or are there Army guys that play “both ways”?...I’m confused...

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