There Goes Diego...Garcia

another piece of red, left my atlas, today ... effectively

History will judge this for what it is; folly at the highest level, an order of magnitude greater even than the British sending the Soviets their jet engine in the late 1940s. Governments and technology change, geography doesn’t.

As in all things, let’s first go to the chart.

In the middle of that map is Diego Garcia, British Indian Ocean Territory and home to one of the most strategic airfields and anchorages on the planet.

I’ve spent some time this century in, on, and working the GWOT importance of Diego Garcia. I distinctly believe those in the British government responsible for this epic own-goal have no clue what they have done—they do and simply do not care—or get a masochist’s thrill from damaging themselves and their nation—perhaps a national security mental disorder of 'self-cutting'.

Join me in an angry little rant.

Diego Garcia was British for the reasons every other bit of land on this planet is owned by this nation or that: it earned it and kept it through discovery and force of arms.

The red circle is 2,000 nautical miles from the island. The purple circle is 1,150 nautical miles, roughly the distance from London to Malta, that represents the distance from Diego Garcia, affectionally known to its friends as “Dodge” and civilized people will defer things on the island to Provisional Peoples'
Democratic Republic of Diego Garcia. That circle is also the distance from Diego Garcia to the island of Mauritius, and uninhabited island until discovered by the Europeans a few hundreds of years ago, passing through Dutch, French, and finally English hands, populated by a multi-ethnic mix of people brought there or emigrating there over the centuries—or as the left likes to call them, “settler colonialists.”

Elections have consequences, so does the abandonment of the institutions by conservatives - especially in foreign affairs. We keep hiring from the same leftist institutions and allow them to control the hiring process so their ducks pick ducks, and then we wonder why from Israel to the Indian Ocean, just plain stupid, self-destructive, soft, and myopic decisions continue to be made throughout the West.

Goodness knows the People’s Republic of China would not do this, but they are a serious nation whose decision makers can read a map and history books.

Before we expand on that, let’s do a little history travel. You can read it here or just the screen shot below, but here’s what I wrote on the topic over a dozen years ago:

First let’s see the announcement by David Lammy, Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs

I’ll comment on the above, taken from the official press release, later down-post.

Next let’s see the quote tweet of the above by John Healey the British Secretary of State for Defense.

What repeated talking points unseriousness.

The official press release is a farcical exercise if self-delusional excuse making.

I’ll grab a few talking points for you.

deal ensures long term secure operation of the UK-US military base on Diego Garcia, a vital facility for maintaining international security

No, a 99 year lease is not “long term.” You turned over the actual land to an island that was once one of the most secure and safe military installations on the planet to an island nation 1,150nm away that is weak, regularily unstable, unreliably led, and with the growing influence by the People’s Republic of China.

“Inernational security?” Really? Laughable.

For the first time in more than 50 years, the status of the base will be undisputed and legally secure, following a political agreement between the UK and Mauritius.

It has only been argued for 50 years because successive British governments allowed it to be. Decline is a choice, and this is a perfect example.

The agreement underpins the UK’s steadfast duty to keep the country safe, with the operation of the military base unchanged, in an increasingly volatile world.

Giving up soverign control of strategic land undermines, not underpins, keeping a nation “safe.” How does this “underpin” British control of, say, Gibralter?

Saying operation will be “unchanged” is simply gasslighting. Everyone’s planning assumptions and risk mitigation plans have to be changed now. If you can’t Red Team this out 4 to 5 plays down the road, then get out of the national security arena and move in to some place where you will do less harm to later generations.

Without today’s agreement, the long-term, secure operation of the military base would be under threat, with contested sovereignty and legal challenges – including through various international courts and tribunals.

What a weak and pathetic paragraph. Only someone whose bedroom habits you really don’t want to know about would try to defend that paragraph with a straight face.

The weakest cheese is this near the end.

Diego Garcia has also seen a small number of vulnerable migrants arrive since 2021, subsequently launching asylum claims. The agreement will shut down any possibility of the Indian Ocean being used as a dangerous illegal migration route to the UK, with Mauritius taking responsibility for any future arrivals.

Again, this is 100% under British control. Just like the problem we have in the USA with illegal migrants, what happens when people force themselves onto your shores is 100% under the control of that nation. No serious person is convinced by that paragraph. Like almost everthing I’ve read this AM on the topic, bumbled out by the British government, is an insult to anyone who read it.

Even funnier, the British are paying for the humiliation.

To enable this partnership the UK will provide a package of financial support to Mauritius.  This will include an indexed annual payment for the duration of the agreement and the establishment of a transformational infrastructure partnership, underpinned by UK grant funding, to deliver strategic projects generating meaningful change for ordinary Mauritians and boosting economic development across the country.  

I could fisk the whole thing, but why bother.

In the end, the round is out of the tube and the USA will have to adjust accordingly, as will the UK. We need to assume that there is a non-zero chance that we will no longer be able to have a secure Diego Garcia. Political, espionage, and other risks just went from very small to orders of magnitude greater.

This is a sad strategic loss, but not an existential one.

We have to take it for what it is. If nothing else we can use it as a perfect example of, as I pointed out on X, the strategic self-loathing of the British Labout Party that is trans-generational, intentional, and knows no bounds. The British “Conservative” government is equally to blame as they—wormridden as they are with leadership seeping externalized self-loathing. It is just the British version of the fetid world view one finds in most of the Anglospheric left. There is no reason to argue the point, it is all clear as day.

This was a long time coming, and in a way, inevitable. For serious right of center national security types, never let the “not a hill worth dying on” argument win every time it is used. If you do, eventually those who do not have your best interests in heart will own all the high ground—or islands—and have you surrounded. At that point, don’t wonder how you got there. You put yourself there.

(NB: For those paid subscribers who listened to yesterday’s UNCLAS Read Board expecting a post about the new Japanese Prime Minister, that got bumpted to next Monday in order to make room for this post, as this is breaking news and exceptionally important.)