95 Comments

No they are not. They are not playing at all.

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155mm Artillery shell production is in the news pretty constantly due to Ukraine. How is bomb production doing?

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More importantly - is the bomb production in a purple swing state.

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Don: The IDF has been moving armor to the north in earnest. Supply of artillery and tank shells is a big issue, and part of the reason why Israel has had to hold off for many months.

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CDR Sal: Now that is world class perspective framing. By providing comparative maps, you give the "casual" U.S. centric reader non-DoD reader (perhaps linking in from, say, Instapundit) an easily understandable sense of the scope and scale of this conflict. OBTW, the numbers are huge, and impressive, especially considering the relatively small size of the "impact area". BUT, what is the impact of the precision of these strikes, especially in combination with the intel gathered from the recent pager / walky talky / internet of things detonation? Possible assessment of movements prior to detonation? Stalin said (IIRC) "at some point mass has a quality of its own" or something like that. MASS combined with PRECISION has to have a multiplier effect on the "effects based operation" campaign that the IDF is currently waging. Given their situation, have to believe they see this is a last resort type of action, and are burning sources and methods in a very profligate manner to prevent complete disaster. They are almost certainly correct.

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8 hrs ago·edited 8 hrs agoLiked by CDR Salamander

What's a km, let alone a square one?

— "casual" U.S. centric reader non-DoD reader

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And non-veteran readers. In 1980 veterans made up 18% of the U.S. population. By 2022 that was down to 6% and 1/3 of them being Vietnam-era or earlier. Over the next decade or so it is going to be a heck of a lot easier finding that vacant Veterans parking spot at the Home Depot.

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The challenge here in conducting that huge number of strikes in a confined space takes on the appearance of indiscriminate bombing with undoubtedly a significant number of civilian casualties. Israel has already demonstrated that this is a war of emotion and that they lack restraint, this further proves the point and will erode international support and reduce legitmacy to their strategic aims (which remain unclear as they continue to expand this war).

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Yesterday was already the bloodiest single day since the end of the Lebanese civil war decades ago

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9 hrs ago·edited 8 hrs ago

Israel's strategic aim is to live in peace. Hezbollah starting bombing Northern Israel on October 7 (leaving no doubt that Iran was behind October 6-7) without Israel provocation. Israel gave them 11 months to stop and they didn't. Now they will receive their just reward for their actions.

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Israel’s actions do not indicate a desire to live in peace, and as they’ve shown no ability to be discriminate in their attacks (a simple release of pre-/post imagery to the public would go a long way in demonstrating “restraint”), and until they demonstrate an openness on their means to achieve strategic aims then this has every appearance of indiscriminate and at odds with international norms (comparing their actions to those of Russia in Ukraine). Their is no intellectual honesty in stating my strategic aim is to live in peace as it has no logical end state.

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8 hrs ago·edited 8 hrs ago

Now it's Hezbollah turn to whine and cry that is Israel is playing too rough after bombing Israel for the past 11 months. The details will surely follow but the intel/ops with the pagers and beepers is already legend. They went right after the leadership of these monsters. Don't ever forget the American blood that Hezbollah has on their hands from the Beirut bombing 40 years ago.

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800+ strikes in an area slightly larger than the District of Columbia reaks of a lack of discrimination in selecting targets, and more of a carpet bombing campaign. Show us the proof of the legitimacy of this level of aggression, or take a step back and examine your true end-state with intellectual honesty. Israel does not get a pass simply for being Israel - which is what you appear to be arguing.

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7 hrs ago·edited 7 hrs ago

Estimates of Hezbollah's total rocket count range from 40,000 to 120,000. How many is that per square km?

https://www.twz.com/news-features/hezbollah-converted-soviet-tu-143-jet-drone-into-cruise-missile-says-idf-just-like-ukraine

It appears that while Hoover couldn't deliver a chicken in every pot, Hezzbollah has promised everyone a missile in every home.

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Or the USS Liberty or Jonathan Pollard.

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Israel follows the dogma of that midevil warrior monk who order the Cathar city in France put to the sword, kill them all let God sort it out, we shall have security when no one left to defend themselves

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"Israel’s actions do not indicate a desire to live in peace"

Killing the people that want to kill you indicates a desire to live in [people] peace. If my neighbor was throwing grenades in my window occasionally, I'd sure as heck do something about it.

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By your logic the mere possession of armed deterrence indicates that a nation does not want to live in peace. Perish the thought that one might take the fight to an enemy whose raison d'etre is your extermination. With respect, your evaluation of this matter is remarkably naive. It is called war and it has many faces.

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8 hrs agoLiked by CDR Salamander

Gee, I don't know why there would be emotion involved. Doesn't everyone stand around and calmly debate things after a mob of medieval barbarians attacks, rapes and murders over a thousand of your people?

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The challenge here is that in a year since that horrific attack, the emotion from Israels leadership has not subsided. There does not appear to be a rational evaluation of strategic end-states, methods, and rationale behind what Israel is doing now. They don't get a pass to do whatever the hell they want, just because they were attacked first. Restraint, with a calculated rationale behind each move is how they should be prosecuting this war, instead we revert to carpet bombing the enemy with a significant amount of collateral damage that could likely be avoided.

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Restraint when retaliating against attempted genocide is suicidal. The right response is to flatten the attackers and kill them all.

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It appears that both sides of this war may have genocide on their minds. Neither is right!

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General LeMay would like a word with you.

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Actually, they do get a pass. Restraint is an option the IDF has exercised continuously and will disregard as circumstances dictate.

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What Israel should be doing is carpet bombing and creating a buffer zone between them and their enemies.

Total victory is the only option

They’ve had their existence threatened for decades.

Time to end it

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Yes, emotion is always a factor, but in the end a war must have a logical conclusion or end-state in order to continue to be waged, and absent a political end-state, this takes on a more-and-more indiscriminate "us vs the world" mentality in which emotion is the only driver of decision-making. This is a classic art of war discussion in which it appears Israel is just leaping at every boogeyman and does not have any real objective.

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Logical conclusion: destruction of the barbarians.

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7 hrs ago·edited 7 hrs ago

Patrick: International legitimacy is for the Useless Nations.

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No, international legitimacy is how alliances are forged and maintained. Isolated nations do not fare well in the lens of history.

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That’s what South Africa said for decades.

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5 hrs ago·edited 5 hrs ago

Dan: The successful South Africa bowed down to the "international community" and became the dysfunctional mess it is today. "International legitimacy" is just Marxism with a happy face.

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Re: ISW map, it reflects the recognized international perspective on the situation. ISW is not a USG entity, and the US recognition of the Golan as Israeli was unilateral, not reflected by the UN or the rest of the world generally speaking. I’ll think they’re trying to present a general perspective rather than a US one

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Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the Golan Heights as part of Israel and no one in the Deep State is going to give him credit for doing so. Just look at who works for these think tanks. At the ISW you will find names like Kagan and Kristol. At the AEI who will find the name Cheney. Need I say more? The thinks tanks are little more than farm teams or retirement homes for future and past members of the Uniparty. They really have little to offer.

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The best and the brightest told us that the Arab street would explode in anger if Donald Trump kept his promise about Jerusalem. He did so and the reaction was a big yawn. The Deep State especially hates him when he shows them he's right and they are not.

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Also, this isn’t a “long-simmering border conflict”. The Israeli-Lebanese border is internationally recognized. At its heart, this is a Jihadi-Western Civilization conflict.

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They seem to have no problem pledging their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor (Naw! Not really) in support of the Uniparty candidate and their continued grift.

https://www.nsl4a.org/nsl4a-announcements/nsl4a-endorsement-harris

"We are former public servants who swore an oath to the Constitution. Many of us risked our lives for it. We are retired generals, admirals, senior noncommissioned officers, ambassadors, and senior civilian national security leaders. We are Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. We are loyal to the ideals of our nation—like freedom, democracy, and the rule of law—not to any one individual or party."

Nice of them to put their names to this letter. A good marketer now has a short list of individuals with the best wine cellars on the Potomac.

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I know a few people who signed this screed. Not honorable people. DEI and all.

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I imagine the Epstein Island visitor’s logs contain many of those names.

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They are propagandists for the more-war-all-the-time UniParty

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Just one more step in creating Eretz Israel, meaning from the river to the sea. Over 800,000 Israeli Jews (and none of the 23% of Israel’s citizens who are Arabs) live in illegally occupied areas outside Israel’s boundaries.

Unfortunately, once the Eretz Israel project is completed there will be as many indigenous Arabs inside that expanded version of Israel as there are Jews.

It’s long been recognized that Israel could be a both a majority Jewish state and a democracy, but only if it stayed within the boundaries of the nation as internationally recognized. Or it could expand to incorporate what Jews refer to as Judea and Samaria along with East Jerusalem and, eventually, Gaza, but it couldn’t be a democracy unless it wanted to give equal rights to the non-Jews in Eretz Israel who demographically will before long be a majority of the population. How could it be a Jewish state if Jews are a minority of the population?

Neither the Jews nor the indigenous Arabs are going away and few, if any, nations, including even the United States, will tolerate endless ethnic preferences or, far worse, ethnic cleansing. And, it’s clear that when politicians reference a two state solution involving truly sovereign nations they are playing charades. There will be no two state solution.

Trump has no more long term vision for the Levant than Biden or Harris have. They are trolling for campaign cash and votes.

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A Kagan is married to Victoria Nuland as well

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No mention at all of the brilliant pager attack? Thats like few thousand injured Hamas members and associates. More than any airstrike ever did.

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That was called preparing the battlefield. Master stroke.

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When Israel dropped that MOAB last week I knew a new phase of the war has been entered…

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Not to be ‘That Guy’, - but wasn’t The 1998 bombing of Iraq 'Operation Desert Fox', and not 'Desert Storm'?

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8 hrs agoLiked by CDR Salamander

I think you meant Desert Fox, not Desert Storm

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author

I did. Mefixie.

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8 hrs agoLiked by CDR Salamander

Simply.amazing.

But our political types aren't paying attention, really. To reach back into history, we're looking more and more like the last days of Rome.

Our "elites" couldn't be a more stereotypical group of self-aggrandizing narcissists on the Lido deck of the Titantic than if we'd ordered them from Cecil B. DeMille's casting shop.

Or the bunker, from "Downfall," if you're really wanting to get dark.

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founding

The Israelis are, at last, doing the necessary, and despite the bleating from our current "Administration". We need to give them any help they need and get out of the way.

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What more “help” can we give our charitable ward beyond an absurd percentage of total foreign aid and endless free supplies of sophisticated arms that the US military could itself use?

Perhaps we could establish an American military footprint within Israel that is roughly equal to that which we have within Qatar? Qatar, of course, pays for a great deal of Central Command’s presence there and Israel could do the same.

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founding

IDF doesn't need our military. We should ask them what they need and provide it--without strings attached.

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Why? Our national interests often diverge greatly from those of Israel. Or do you just have a knee-jerk reaction on this, no matter what?

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"What more “help” can we give our charitable ward beyond an absurd percentage of total foreign aid and endless free supplies of sophisticated arms that the US military could itself use?"

Allow them to defeat their foes so badly that unconditional surrender is the only option other than extinction.

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Why? See my above comment.

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What was there before the Al-Aqsa mosque? How old is the Jewish Cemetery on Mount Olive? It ain't the Jews who are the foreign occupiers.

Lindbergh loves ya' baby!

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Really? You’re clearly more interested in the Hasbara of a foreign country than what’s best for the US.

So your argument is that Arabs who have been on that land for 1000+ uninterrupted years and 8000 generations aren’t legitimately indigenous and thus deserve to have their land and homes relentlessly stolen by a squatter movement? Are you writing from a West Bank settlement?

I’m not arguing that Jews didn’t live in our Holy Land millennia ago (so did Samaritans…) or that Jews should leave. I follow the Jewish carpenter and know that the New Testament was written almost entirely by Jews with Jews as the primary target audience. I know Christ would be aghast at what is happening now. By all means stay.

But it might be good to, of all things, have Israel’s 800,000 Jewish citizens who live illegally on the West Bank and East Jerusalem return to live inside Israel’s borders (note that none of the 23% of Israelis who are Arabs are squatters).

There are now an equal number of Arabs (Christians and Muslims) and Jews in Palestine/Israel. Neither tribe is leaving and ethnic cleansing and sustained gross ethnic preferences won’t be tolerated.

It’s up to Israel to figure out the answer, not Uncle Sugar. We’d do well to step back and motivate them to do that.

Don’t forget the USS Liberty or Jonathan Pollard. The two countries have differing interests. We aren’t Israelis. At least I am not.

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I wonder if the USA is being set up for another intervention in Lebanon on behalf of Israel.

Will the unconditional support for a wealthy nuclear power seeking to expand its territory at the expense of Palestinian olive farmers ever end?

I was around, off Ras Beirut for a couple of weeks in May 1983 for the last intervention. That was not in the interest of the United States and didn't end well.

We've been bled in Middle East conflicts related to Israel for the last 40 years, and soon we'll get our ass kicked by China because we let ourselves be bled.

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"......at the expense of Palestinian olive farmers ever end?"

Which came first? Mount Olive or the Olive farmers. Herod would like a word with you.

Don't interfere with Israel.

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Israel is not the US. It’s another country. Our national interests often don’t coincide with those of Israel.

Maybe it isn’t for you, though.

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Gee Dan, read the last sentence.

Perhaps your Gazan pals shouldn't have gone ape schittt on Oct 7th. My reaction would have been to go all Arthur Harris/Dresden on them.

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I’m a Marine. There was no reason for the Marines to be in Beirut in 1983. What national interest was served by that gross tragedy?

I’m in no way a Hamas supporter but there are abundant numbers of extraordinary people in Gaza and I’m not nearly as cavalier about killing innocents as you are, apparently. Israel is not becoming more secure and it’s too bad that the IDF was inept in defending its border on 10/7 despite all the weaponry we’ve given it. One thing I can assure you is that Israel can’t kill them all, no matter how much we divert from the US military and take from American taxpayers.

The US did a bunch of misguided stuff after 9/11. Look at how that investment of $7 trillion and hundreds of thousands of lives turned out. Perhaps you’ve forgotten the recent triumph in Afghanistan…

Temper tantrums are poor substitutes for sober strategic decision making.

With Israel being a charitable ward of the US it is absolutely place conditions on our ceaseless aid. We do that with every country we assist.

And, Israel is a completely separate country from us. We aren’t them and they aren’t us.

Sorry for disrupting the echo chamber.

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"We've been bled in Middle East conflicts related to Israel for the last 40 years, and soon we'll get our ass kicked by China because we let ourselves be bled."

If it wasn't for State's penchant for nation building and rainbow diversity spreading in the Sandbox, the doves would had "peace divend-ed" away the entire DOD budget and reallocated it to Medicaid, the War on Poverty, and high priced condo reclaimation of waterfront real estate. At least the Navy can still barely serve as a speed bump (Assuming the PLAN doesn't target our pitiful handful of oilers.)

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founding

One of those oilers just ran herself aground off Oman.

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7 hrs ago·edited 7 hrs ago

Thomas: The US has fueled the conflict for the past 40 years, through greed (for oil, gas and influence) and profound ignorance.

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Regardless of your opinion of support of the Israel, past 23 years are example of how well intentioned policies of multiple administrations of both parties aimed at progressing US interests, from removing Saddam Hussein to supporting rebels in Syria, led in a brilliant demonstration of the law of unintended consequences to Shia-controlled highway from Iran to Lebanon that could not be better created if Khomeini himself rose from the grave to enact his dreams.

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Discussion about the nature of war today hinges on whether or not wars can be fought without collateral damage (i.e., non-combatant casualties and infrastructure). We seem to have a bit of amnesia about the nature of war. William Tecumseh Sherman: "War is cruelty. There is no use trying to reform it. The crueler it is, the sooner it will be over." And, "My aim....was to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom." Now, you may or may not agree with this approach, but we wrapped up WWII with two atomic bombs in Japan, and obliteration of key German cities. Israelis have endured years of missile attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah (non-state actors backed by a non contiguous state - Iran) without much reaction from the West. Western indifference to how Jews are treated has a long history, which Jews are more than attuned to. So "Never Again," has an imprimatur that we in the West shouldn't dismiss as rhetoric. We didn't finish the job about punishing those who were behind the Beirut Barracks bombing -- but it appears the IDF has done that for us. So bully for them. I feel sorry for the Lebanese and Gaza civilians who are themselves indirectly held hostage to radical Muslim militants who have essentially ruined the Middle East I remember Beirut pre-Hezbollah, and it was very much a civilized and prosperous place in the 1960s. The next time I saw it was in 1983....

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You saw it before the 70% Christian Lebanon let the barbarian PLO through the city gates in '75. We are now living with the 85% Muslim vassal state of Iran.

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Hoy cow. Get real. Lebanon is about 35% Christian.

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The Paris of the Eastern Med existed for a reason...the last 30-years has seen that title scrapped-off the sign at the city limits and it's no different than any other seaside slum.

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Hezbollah are no different the inner city US Gangs. They are a cancer and multiply.

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Okay Dan, I've seen different numbers as well.

You saw it before the 70% Christian Lebanon let the barbarian PLO through the city gates in '75. We are now living with the 65% Muslim vassal state of Iran.

Sure doesn't change the narrative much does it? My point stands.

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"Airstrike"???? What does that mean? ISW alleged to be in the business of studying war. So use precise warrior terms.

The Schweinfurt Raid was an Airstrike

A Sortie is an Airstrike

A released munition is an Airstrike

The differences are huge.

What are we talking about? I think we are counting booms, meaning high order munitions dropped

Other opinions?

On the Golan question, Dept of State maps seem to show the Golan as disputed, while the CIA Fact book shows it as Israel. Perhaps the Biden Admin defers to Syria

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Dropping 2000 lb bombs with a 350 yard kill radius on a Gaza area designated as a safe zone is an air strike.

A completely immoral airstrike. 17000 infants and children dead thus far.

Using bombs charitably supplied by the US. How the American national interest is served by this is unclear.

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After Oct 7th?

“Before we're through with them, the Japanese language will be spoken only in hell”

Is the only appropriate response.

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All warfare is immoral if you want to argue that. Who is more culpable in this madness, the cowards who initiated this and use civilians as shields or the ones seeking their just revenge as a matter of survival? Honor only means something when recognized by both combatants. Our interests lie with the only democratic nation in the sandbox.

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The US is not the final arbiter of the status of the Golan Heights.

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author

Who is?

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Either rule of law, aka UN charter, which forbids annexation of foreign territory, OR brute force in which case it is Israel on the spot.

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author

Which "rule of law" would you be referring to? The 1862 border, the 1920 border, the 1923 border, the 1936 border, the 1946 border, the 1949 border, the 1967 border, the 2000 border, or the 2019 border...none of which everyone has agreed to. Syria started the fight in '67 where they lost the Golan, not Israel. Also, in the larger context, I refer you to Kosovo, South Sudan, The Falkland Islands, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, N. Macedonia, Bosnia ... etc - all gained by force of arms after the UN charter you refer to.

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This went into my Reference Notes.

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Disbanding of the Yugoslavia did not result in annexations of other countries. - hell even Serbs ended up not annexing Serb parts of the Croatia and Bosnia.

Neither did Albania annex Kosovo.

Similarily, South Sudan seceded after civil war, and was not captured by third party like say, Ethiopia or Kenya.

Falkland Islands have been temporarily de facto conquered by Argentine and was reclaimed justly , de facto AND de iure by UK.

As for the 1967, Israel and Han shot first. With devastating results in both cases :P

So, basically, the rule of international law is :Thou shall not steal land. Especially by force.

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author

You are incorrect WRT Syria’s entrance in to the ‘67 war. Study that front.

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