Some USA support of some countries is essential to the USA. Some is not. And some is in the middle ... important but not critical in a 25 to 50 ear time line. I don't desire to reward dictators on their road to conquest but not every war among distant countries requires a DEFCON 1 response.
Assuming some modest some short term actions, Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan are NOT in the category of essential. We don't have to draw the line there. And ditto for much of Europe.
But even if a USA defense of a country isn't in the 25 to 50 year essential category, the USA should establish some rules that let friends and foes know what it takes for a relatively free western oriented country to gain sizable USA support. First, a country worthy of USA support and if such country is in a 25 year window of existential risk, this country needs to show the USA and the world that they are serious about their defense of their country.
Serious about defense is subject to some negotiation but the effort by the at risk country needs to be substantial and sustained for the entire period a country is in the 25 year risk category. My criteria would be defense expenditures at least 10% annually of prior year GDP and the ability to create an army equal to 10% of the population ready to go into battle in less than 30 days. Serious preparation for countries seriously at risk.
Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan have not and are not serious about their survivability as a country and are not doing all they can and should do. Until they do, it's time to reconsider unending support.
If they don't and we don't find it in our interest to support, we certainly should invite the population of these countries to the safety of the USA. Most of these people would be an addition to our economic wealth and likely better individual contributors then many of the millions recently arrived on our shores.
It's complicated but also simple. People at immediate risk should be willing to 'pay' more than a USA that might assist them in their defense.
The CSIS study estimates that the US would need 5,000 LRASMs in the first month of a conflict with the PRC over China. Based on current production orders, the US would have 460 LRASMs by 2026. 460. We'll be Winchester long before we start running into ship repair and replacement problems.
The silver lining is that the window between Typhoon season and Winter is almost over, Xi's ongoing purges of the senior defense leadership and the PRC on-going economic woes may buy a little bit more time.
What has happened in the Black Sea is quite encouraging with respect to China. Ukraine, with no navy and a vestigal air force, has driven the Russian Navy to Novorossisk, 900 km from the nearest Ukraine-controlled shoreline. Whatever the Chicoms spend on building ships, we only have to spend 5% of that to sink those ships. But we do have to spend that money soon and let's have a good safety margin, like at least 100%. There is another good sign from Ukraine. Robert Work said that we have to eat the initial Chicom salvo. Ukraine has been hit with some 2,500 ballistic missiles and other flying things and is still in good condition.
If there is a fight for Taiwan in the fall of 24 we need a right now list.
In ships:
- Let autonomy wait and use the Ghost fleet overlord and MUSV ships as manned patrol/missile boat replacements. Mariner and Ranger are the same design. Seacor Marine has 2 more just like them we could get hold of and 2 very similar larger ships. If the MUSV prototype can be manned that would be 7 compatible ships plus Vanguard and Nomad.
- We have to find a means to upgrade the Coast Guard's ships.
- We need real UAV and point defense everywhere.
In Munitions: Get more weapons integrated in existing platforms so they don't know what capability to expect from what they see they are facing.
- NSM on helos, not ships
- Anything that can be used against a ship integrated on P-8
- We need every Mk 70 launcher we can get our hands on so any ship with a flight deck can be a strike threat. Even better, just stick them on auxiliaries so the helo decks can stay useful. If it has a 40' x 8' space with weight and stability, and the ability to network.
In the air:
-Get ASW gear available and make sure any existing aircraft that can carry it are familiar.
- Get STOVL Mojave/Reapers out in the fleet as a faster means to proliferate UAV ISR for AS purposes. MQ-25 is too slow to get here.
I DO have to take exception to " democracies — Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan " Ukraine is anything but a "democracy", it is one of the most corrupt oligarchies in memory. Taiwan and Israel deserve our support; Ukraine does NOT.
It is incredible just how much both the international and domestic situations have deteriorated since January 2021. Energy. Inflation. Debt. Wokeness. The southern border. Afghanistan. Ukraine. Israel. Taiwan. Iran. BRICS. Etc. Donald Trump cannot return to the White House soon enough.
We should find some near-surface seamounts or reefs that are within mutually supporting range of each other, dredge up sand and build hardened air bases with long-range AA & AS missiles on them.
It is difficult to take Europe seriously. Never let an opportunity go to waste to push a narrative, even if that opportunity is a war. Who would have thought the UKR-RUS would bring a platform to discuss the environmental benefits of taking agricultural land out of production and planting trees for carbon capture. In 30-40 years, you will have a natural defensive speed bump against the invading RUS empire.
From the "Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank."
Defensive Rewilding: Where Military and Environmental Protection Overlap (20 October 2023)
A supplemental appropriation of $105 BILLION is a serious chunk of money, and sorta shows we are serious.
But, just printing more money, or going to the effort of actually trying to borrow it does not convey the seriousness of the threats or our commitment.
Congress needs to take that $105 Billion out of other FY 2024 spending. Yes, slashing free Obama phones and welfare, social security and defense spending would be painful, but it would immediately give all Americans actual skin in the game and encourage them to decide if fighting endless foreign wars (of whatever degree of relevance to our vital national security) is more important than our other spending wants.
When we are $34 TRILLION in debt, we cannot just throw around money like drunken politicians. Time to have a serious discussion on our national priorities. Some we can afford, and some we can no longer afford. Our elected officials will have to make some hard, and likely unpopular choices.
Remember, a billion dollars is a Thousand times one million dollars. $105 Billion is an incomprehensible amount of money.
I agree that Taiwan and it's microchip industry is a vital strategic interest of the US. I just wish that Taiwan took their situation seriously. I always thought their military was organized and armed like the ROK. Everything I am reading lately is that their reserves are not organized and their mandatory draftees serve about four months and are not well trained. It is hard to be more worried about the Taiwanese than they are about themselves.
Well if Taiwan is that important for the US why do you still recognise it as a part of PRC?
I note that Poland spends 3.9% of its GDP on defense. Just sayin’.
Some USA support of some countries is essential to the USA. Some is not. And some is in the middle ... important but not critical in a 25 to 50 ear time line. I don't desire to reward dictators on their road to conquest but not every war among distant countries requires a DEFCON 1 response.
Assuming some modest some short term actions, Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan are NOT in the category of essential. We don't have to draw the line there. And ditto for much of Europe.
But even if a USA defense of a country isn't in the 25 to 50 year essential category, the USA should establish some rules that let friends and foes know what it takes for a relatively free western oriented country to gain sizable USA support. First, a country worthy of USA support and if such country is in a 25 year window of existential risk, this country needs to show the USA and the world that they are serious about their defense of their country.
Serious about defense is subject to some negotiation but the effort by the at risk country needs to be substantial and sustained for the entire period a country is in the 25 year risk category. My criteria would be defense expenditures at least 10% annually of prior year GDP and the ability to create an army equal to 10% of the population ready to go into battle in less than 30 days. Serious preparation for countries seriously at risk.
The USA did spend at this level post WW2 through around 1970: https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/defense_spending_history
Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan have not and are not serious about their survivability as a country and are not doing all they can and should do. Until they do, it's time to reconsider unending support.
If they don't and we don't find it in our interest to support, we certainly should invite the population of these countries to the safety of the USA. Most of these people would be an addition to our economic wealth and likely better individual contributors then many of the millions recently arrived on our shores.
It's complicated but also simple. People at immediate risk should be willing to 'pay' more than a USA that might assist them in their defense.
The CSIS study estimates that the US would need 5,000 LRASMs in the first month of a conflict with the PRC over China. Based on current production orders, the US would have 460 LRASMs by 2026. 460. We'll be Winchester long before we start running into ship repair and replacement problems.
The silver lining is that the window between Typhoon season and Winter is almost over, Xi's ongoing purges of the senior defense leadership and the PRC on-going economic woes may buy a little bit more time.
What has happened in the Black Sea is quite encouraging with respect to China. Ukraine, with no navy and a vestigal air force, has driven the Russian Navy to Novorossisk, 900 km from the nearest Ukraine-controlled shoreline. Whatever the Chicoms spend on building ships, we only have to spend 5% of that to sink those ships. But we do have to spend that money soon and let's have a good safety margin, like at least 100%. There is another good sign from Ukraine. Robert Work said that we have to eat the initial Chicom salvo. Ukraine has been hit with some 2,500 ballistic missiles and other flying things and is still in good condition.
If there is a fight for Taiwan in the fall of 24 we need a right now list.
In ships:
- Let autonomy wait and use the Ghost fleet overlord and MUSV ships as manned patrol/missile boat replacements. Mariner and Ranger are the same design. Seacor Marine has 2 more just like them we could get hold of and 2 very similar larger ships. If the MUSV prototype can be manned that would be 7 compatible ships plus Vanguard and Nomad.
- We have to find a means to upgrade the Coast Guard's ships.
- We need real UAV and point defense everywhere.
In Munitions: Get more weapons integrated in existing platforms so they don't know what capability to expect from what they see they are facing.
- NSM on helos, not ships
- Anything that can be used against a ship integrated on P-8
- We need every Mk 70 launcher we can get our hands on so any ship with a flight deck can be a strike threat. Even better, just stick them on auxiliaries so the helo decks can stay useful. If it has a 40' x 8' space with weight and stability, and the ability to network.
In the air:
-Get ASW gear available and make sure any existing aircraft that can carry it are familiar.
- Get STOVL Mojave/Reapers out in the fleet as a faster means to proliferate UAV ISR for AS purposes. MQ-25 is too slow to get here.
Just spit balling
LOVE the thought of Taiwan being "spiney"
I DO have to take exception to " democracies — Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan " Ukraine is anything but a "democracy", it is one of the most corrupt oligarchies in memory. Taiwan and Israel deserve our support; Ukraine does NOT.
Great ideas if only we had the money. The usa is bankrupt moral and finically like most of the west. Its past time we worry about our own house
It is incredible just how much both the international and domestic situations have deteriorated since January 2021. Energy. Inflation. Debt. Wokeness. The southern border. Afghanistan. Ukraine. Israel. Taiwan. Iran. BRICS. Etc. Donald Trump cannot return to the White House soon enough.
DO we really think the US can stop China if they decide to "take" Taiwan. We can't even protect our own country from the ongoing invasion.
We should find some near-surface seamounts or reefs that are within mutually supporting range of each other, dredge up sand and build hardened air bases with long-range AA & AS missiles on them.
How can the US decouple from Europe when it is one (WEFers the other) of the main causes of instability there?
It is difficult to take Europe seriously. Never let an opportunity go to waste to push a narrative, even if that opportunity is a war. Who would have thought the UKR-RUS would bring a platform to discuss the environmental benefits of taking agricultural land out of production and planting trees for carbon capture. In 30-40 years, you will have a natural defensive speed bump against the invading RUS empire.
From the "Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank."
Defensive Rewilding: Where Military and Environmental Protection Overlap (20 October 2023)
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/defensive-rewilding-where-military-and-environmental-protection-overlap
FDR and Harry Truman both had to figure out you can't pivot to the Pacific. What is the definition of insanity again?
A supplemental appropriation of $105 BILLION is a serious chunk of money, and sorta shows we are serious.
But, just printing more money, or going to the effort of actually trying to borrow it does not convey the seriousness of the threats or our commitment.
Congress needs to take that $105 Billion out of other FY 2024 spending. Yes, slashing free Obama phones and welfare, social security and defense spending would be painful, but it would immediately give all Americans actual skin in the game and encourage them to decide if fighting endless foreign wars (of whatever degree of relevance to our vital national security) is more important than our other spending wants.
When we are $34 TRILLION in debt, we cannot just throw around money like drunken politicians. Time to have a serious discussion on our national priorities. Some we can afford, and some we can no longer afford. Our elected officials will have to make some hard, and likely unpopular choices.
Remember, a billion dollars is a Thousand times one million dollars. $105 Billion is an incomprehensible amount of money.
I agree that Taiwan and it's microchip industry is a vital strategic interest of the US. I just wish that Taiwan took their situation seriously. I always thought their military was organized and armed like the ROK. Everything I am reading lately is that their reserves are not organized and their mandatory draftees serve about four months and are not well trained. It is hard to be more worried about the Taiwanese than they are about themselves.