Running the Executive Branch of our government has elements of managing a very complicated, high risk company. Sal noted "Biden brought in Obama’s B-team with all their unfulfilled bag of bad ideas which in a few short years begat ISIS and Iranian proxies joining together in renewed strength in Syria and Iraq enough to attack US bases in Jordan, Syria, and Iraq." I would point out that Class A managers hire Class A people. Class B managers hire Class C people.
My first reaction was that the whole event appeared to be choreographed to allow Iran to save a minimal amount of dignity but do no damage to Israel and then to not having Israel strike back, which they obviously would do and could possibly still do.
I would add the administration's energy policies to its ongoing list of failures that enabled Iran. Their Green New Deal should really be called Make Iran Rich Again as it allowed Iran to subsidize HAMAS, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Under Trump, America became a net exporter of energy. Upon taking office, Biden reversed every Trump policy and the price of gas skyrocketed. The price receded only by tapping into the SPR and by making deals with Venezuela.
I disagree with item #1. I think the objective was not to swamp Israeli defenses. If so, it would have ben a real surprise TOT hit. It was not a surprise, I was telegraphed far enough in advance so everything could be brought online. Iran told Turkey and others what was going to go down to ensure no surprise. Enough warning for no mass casualties or mass damage. It was a way for Iran to save some face.
I think it was also a way from Iran to gain some intel of what the air defense system was capable of. Some Ballistic Missiles got through to one of the air bases. Did that help the Iranians understand what worked and what didn't? Conversely, did this strike help Israel understand what Arrow and Davids sling can do? Did it help USN understand what SM-3 can do?
But I think you are spot on with the rest of the points.
Sal, the mission has certainly matured since those very nascent capabilities we put to sea in LAKE ERIE and first demonstrated in January 2002. Not only did our Sailors and industrial partners blaze a trail but it was done much to the chagrin, at times, of legacy naval thinking and with significant headwinds. The work is not nearly complete as this is merely the vanguard of the future where navy’s battlespace is outer space! Sail Safe and Good Hunting Yall!
I have been reading you since close to the beginning, and this is the best analysis you have done. Clear and concise, no BS. I just don't think folks realize how bad a shape we are in. This should be a wake-up call, but it won't be.
From a recent Reuters report: "ANKARA, April 14 (Reuters) - Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be "within certain limits"."
If this report is accurate, our natl sec team participated in a "wag the dog" event with an avowed enemy of the US. We permitted the enemy to attack a sovereign nation and ally, so long as it didn't go over some unidentified red line, whatver that could possible be.
Color me cynical, but I don't see this ending any time soon ... or well.
BTW, BZ to the AW team. But, how much of the Standard Missile stockpile did we expend in this attack, and over the last few months. Repleneshment plan?
Did Israeli leadership know of this? And how do you seel this to the Israeli population. I'm not sure Israeli citizens appreciate that we foiled what appears to be a scripted attack.
Much like Steel City, I too thought initially that it was a more expansive version of firing rockets into the desert like they did after Soleimani. Now I'm leaning more towards a testing of air defenses to see if the low level intercept capabilities would be as poor as it was during the attacks on the Khurais and Abqaiq refineries in Saudi Arabia.
Something about pushing with a bayonet until you hit resistance.
So important thing I’m observing. Iran demonstrated that they have the will (intent) and the capability to strike Israel. They have likely calculated that they are all in and that all their proxies will attack also. Israel understand that based on this new calculus, Israel is now facing an “existential threat”. That is to say, Israel will take extraordinary measures now to decapitate Iranian leadership, destroy Iranian missile manufacturing complexes and industry including oil production and will likely, yes very likely, use nuclear weapons to destroy Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. It’s a whole new game folks.
"We remember everything but learn nothing." Most of America remembers nothing because they weren't paying enough attention for the sight, sound or printed word to make an impression. What was never learned can't be remembered.
Thanks for the VAQ shoutout! Folks are finally recognizing the necessity of controlling the EMS.
Great succinct summary of the tactical, operational, and strategic environment. the bang box should read "we're in trouble" in bold 36 font
Running the Executive Branch of our government has elements of managing a very complicated, high risk company. Sal noted "Biden brought in Obama’s B-team with all their unfulfilled bag of bad ideas which in a few short years begat ISIS and Iranian proxies joining together in renewed strength in Syria and Iraq enough to attack US bases in Jordan, Syria, and Iraq." I would point out that Class A managers hire Class A people. Class B managers hire Class C people.
But … but …. but ….. he said “Don’t “ forcefully 🤗
My first reaction was that the whole event appeared to be choreographed to allow Iran to save a minimal amount of dignity but do no damage to Israel and then to not having Israel strike back, which they obviously would do and could possibly still do.
Superb
Excellent summary by CDR Sal.
I would add the administration's energy policies to its ongoing list of failures that enabled Iran. Their Green New Deal should really be called Make Iran Rich Again as it allowed Iran to subsidize HAMAS, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Under Trump, America became a net exporter of energy. Upon taking office, Biden reversed every Trump policy and the price of gas skyrocketed. The price receded only by tapping into the SPR and by making deals with Venezuela.
I disagree with item #1. I think the objective was not to swamp Israeli defenses. If so, it would have ben a real surprise TOT hit. It was not a surprise, I was telegraphed far enough in advance so everything could be brought online. Iran told Turkey and others what was going to go down to ensure no surprise. Enough warning for no mass casualties or mass damage. It was a way for Iran to save some face.
I think it was also a way from Iran to gain some intel of what the air defense system was capable of. Some Ballistic Missiles got through to one of the air bases. Did that help the Iranians understand what worked and what didn't? Conversely, did this strike help Israel understand what Arrow and Davids sling can do? Did it help USN understand what SM-3 can do?
But I think you are spot on with the rest of the points.
Sal, the mission has certainly matured since those very nascent capabilities we put to sea in LAKE ERIE and first demonstrated in January 2002. Not only did our Sailors and industrial partners blaze a trail but it was done much to the chagrin, at times, of legacy naval thinking and with significant headwinds. The work is not nearly complete as this is merely the vanguard of the future where navy’s battlespace is outer space! Sail Safe and Good Hunting Yall!
I have been reading you since close to the beginning, and this is the best analysis you have done. Clear and concise, no BS. I just don't think folks realize how bad a shape we are in. This should be a wake-up call, but it won't be.
From a recent Reuters report: "ANKARA, April 14 (Reuters) - Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be "within certain limits"."
If this report is accurate, our natl sec team participated in a "wag the dog" event with an avowed enemy of the US. We permitted the enemy to attack a sovereign nation and ally, so long as it didn't go over some unidentified red line, whatver that could possible be.
Color me cynical, but I don't see this ending any time soon ... or well.
BTW, BZ to the AW team. But, how much of the Standard Missile stockpile did we expend in this attack, and over the last few months. Repleneshment plan?
Did Israeli leadership know of this? And how do you seel this to the Israeli population. I'm not sure Israeli citizens appreciate that we foiled what appears to be a scripted attack.
Much like Steel City, I too thought initially that it was a more expansive version of firing rockets into the desert like they did after Soleimani. Now I'm leaning more towards a testing of air defenses to see if the low level intercept capabilities would be as poor as it was during the attacks on the Khurais and Abqaiq refineries in Saudi Arabia.
Something about pushing with a bayonet until you hit resistance.
So important thing I’m observing. Iran demonstrated that they have the will (intent) and the capability to strike Israel. They have likely calculated that they are all in and that all their proxies will attack also. Israel understand that based on this new calculus, Israel is now facing an “existential threat”. That is to say, Israel will take extraordinary measures now to decapitate Iranian leadership, destroy Iranian missile manufacturing complexes and industry including oil production and will likely, yes very likely, use nuclear weapons to destroy Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. It’s a whole new game folks.
I think the attack was as close to counting coup as you can get using Ballistic and Cruise missiles.
"We remember everything but learn nothing." Most of America remembers nothing because they weren't paying enough attention for the sight, sound or printed word to make an impression. What was never learned can't be remembered.