Welcome to my Post-Fall of Kherson JOPG

momentum is a terrible thing to waste

Usually things flow from here to twitter, but now and then I pop something off that - knowing that not everyone who reads CDRSalamander is on twitter - deserves to flow the other way.

As a Navy guy who spent almost half a decade doing an Army guy's job as an operational planner, a few ideas popped in to my head this AM about "what next" in Ukraine.

Generally I'm not a fan of winter offensives, but when they work - they work. I am even more not a fan of wasting momentum when your larger enemy is on the back foot.

So, three Courses of Action for you to consider ... with absolutely no Commander's Intent or Higher Direction and Guidance ... but when has that ever stopped a core Joint Operational Planning Group's Core Planning Team from sketching some ideas out?

We all need plans to deviate from:

cdrsalamander @cdrsalamander

With the fall of Kherson seeming to be a matter of days, what do you do with the momentum if you are the Ukrainians? You have to plan a winter offensive. Salamander COA-A: "Liberate the Partisans" /1

cdrsalamander @cdrsalamander

COA-B: "Panic to Kerch" To a great extent than COA-A, this depends on full use of riverine and watercraft numbers and capabilities up the Dnipro River above and below the Kakhovka dam. /2

cdrsalamander @cdrsalamander

COA-C: "Big Bet" Growing in risk and assumptions about UKR capabilities - but a good staff offers an aggressive option in case there is unwritten higher D&G that is driving that direction. BT NNNN