What about India?
the PRC smiles
As I mentioned on Sunday's Midrats, I've been thinking a lot recently about the implications mid-century of this graph;
Along with the larger reasons that India and the United States should further grow their relationship for both security reasons and the simple fact we are both republics, reasonable people would think that American diplomatic and other parts of our government would be giving this relationship the attention is clearly needs.
Well, you know my opinion of our State Department.
Some related thoughts from our friend Cleo Paskal;
The United States sends mixed messages to India.On the one hand, Washington highlighted the importance of India’s rise and leadership in its Indo-Pacific Strategy, designated India a Major Defense Partner, and renamed PACOM as INDOPACOM in recognition of India’s important role in the region.
On the other hand, in spite of statements about the importance of people-to-people relations, it currently takes years for someone in Delhi to get an appointment for a US visa, India’s efforts to feed and provide power for its people are described as being against the greater good and, well, Pakistan.
...
Unfortunately, when it comes to India, State seems to be one of the departments least interested in improving relations. As a result, the first step in improving relations with India would be to ensure that engagement strategy is truly a US strategy and not just a State strategy.
That would mean reforming State’s relationship to the rest of the executive branch—having it become more consistently, reliably, even-handed and less selectively integrated in the decision-making disciplines of the executive branch and even in Congressional oversight.
As with so many things, it seems that the US State Department is doing as much as it can to not do much to advance American interests abroad.
Without civil service reform specifically aimed at State so the ossified blob can be excised and progress made - the nomenklatura will continue to see their job as ensuring they and others have a job ... not to look at where they need to invest their efforts towards advancing the interests of the United States ... often when opportunities are right there being offered to us as it is with India.
All we have to do is have people and processes that will do it. We don't seem to quite have it.
Thank you for an intelligent and professional discussion.
I am of Indian birth (before Partition) and spent 20-years as an adult researching India-Pakistan-China security (along with keeping up with US/NATO/Russia etc). I've also written 30+ books focused on Indian security.
With all respect to the Commander and his State department source:
1. India wants everything from US including protection if attacked by China, but wants to give US as little as possible. India as a democracy did not condemn Russia over Ukraine, took the opportunity to buy cheap oil, and justified itself by saying we need to look after our own interests.
2. India is not a rules based and morals based society but acts opportunistically. It is a different culture from ours. Its way of thinking cannot be deciphered by the best psychologist.
3. Though India has only a $3 trillion GDP, it wants US to accept it as a threshold superpower heading for superpower status. Meanwhile, it sees its role as a superpower as lecturing everyone (same always) which earned India the label of hypocrisy personified.
4. PRC is choking India on all fronts and India is so scared of PRC it denies that PRC is bit-by-bit taking over territory.
5. I kept in close touch with US Embassy Delhi and please accept that no one worked harder to improve relations with a Job-like patience, accepting every insult India gave. State (and US in general) dont understand that India knows to respect only force.
6. I agree with John, Carl, and Chris that we must keep trying to improve relations, but I warn that when a crisis between US and China erupts, India will be be found in a cave hiding.
7. Matthew, India explicitly rejects any appearance of an anti-China US-India relationship because it is frightened to death of PRC. Again, the want all advantages of an alliances without giving back anything meaningful.
Purely BTW, after the junk USSR/Russia with which India filled its arsenals, India is amazed and delighted at their new capabilities from US. It has taken them a very long to understand that on a life-cycle + capability basis, US weapons are the most cost effective in the world. Its just that India has too few. For eg, there is a clear need for 30 P-8, but India has only 16, and GOI wont sanction money for more. GOI agreed to 24 C-17, but sanctioned only 11, and now this aircraft which is critical to Indian logistics against PRC is out of production.
Last, militarily China knows as of now it will get thrashed by India. But (a) since China began modernization in 2017, the gap is closing rapidly and (b) Politically and top PLA brass have only contempt for India because Delhi is so easily outmaneuvered - all the way back to 1950.
There is much more to India's totally mixed up approach to the US, but I dont want to bore you.
When I was the India Policy Director for USPACOM back in 2012-2015, I used to say that putting resources/energy/emphasis on India was an investment and doing the same was insurance when it came to China. The problem has been and will continue to be for some time is that India is the Jan Brady of the Indo-Asia-Pacific...and it's all about Marcia, Marcia, Marcia.