I remain utterly boggled by our inability to get a package together to get India off Russian tech. The sort of low-level foot-dragging describing here seems to be indicative of a refusal to prioritize what should be a key relationship in any attempt to actually compete with China.
India is a fascinating state--another dysfunctional democracy, but more a neurosis than a psychosis although if you are a woman or from certain castes the psychosis is real. Too, India was in bed with the Soviet Union for so long that old habits vis-a-vis Russia die hard.
She sits astride a geopolitical disaster waiting to happen with Pakistan, China, the other "Stans," and then places like Iran and Afghanistan serving as petri dishes for further diffusion of nastiness. But demographics will out. Having a large, semi-free, literate population will always be a huge advantage, it is why autocracies kill intellectuals first. But yeah, Sal, we need to keep the largest democracy on the face of the planet firmly in focus...
It is not just at the US end that things are screwed up. Dealing India's bureaucracy makes our State Dept. look like a model of speed an efficiency. The desire to ween India off of Russian weapons come up against that same bureaucracy and India understandable desire to design and build local (which is hampered by that same bureaucracy) For example: It took years for India's bureaucracy to finalize the purchase of 24 American MH-60R Seahawks. India's military preferred the Israeli made Spike ATGM but the government forced the purchase of the was going with the locally made Nag ATGM.
When I was the India Policy Director for USPACOM back in 2012-2015, I used to say that putting resources/energy/emphasis on India was an investment and doing the same was insurance when it came to China. The problem has been and will continue to be for some time is that India is the Jan Brady of the Indo-Asia-Pacific...and it's all about Marcia, Marcia, Marcia.
Thank you for an intelligent and professional discussion.
I am of Indian birth (before Partition) and spent 20-years as an adult researching India-Pakistan-China security (along with keeping up with US/NATO/Russia etc). I've also written 30+ books focused on Indian security.
With all respect to the Commander and his State department source:
1. India wants everything from US including protection if attacked by China, but wants to give US as little as possible. India as a democracy did not condemn Russia over Ukraine, took the opportunity to buy cheap oil, and justified itself by saying we need to look after our own interests.
2. India is not a rules based and morals based society but acts opportunistically. It is a different culture from ours. Its way of thinking cannot be deciphered by the best psychologist.
3. Though India has only a $3 trillion GDP, it wants US to accept it as a threshold superpower heading for superpower status. Meanwhile, it sees its role as a superpower as lecturing everyone (same always) which earned India the label of hypocrisy personified.
4. PRC is choking India on all fronts and India is so scared of PRC it denies that PRC is bit-by-bit taking over territory.
5. I kept in close touch with US Embassy Delhi and please accept that no one worked harder to improve relations with a Job-like patience, accepting every insult India gave. State (and US in general) dont understand that India knows to respect only force.
6. I agree with John, Carl, and Chris that we must keep trying to improve relations, but I warn that when a crisis between US and China erupts, India will be be found in a cave hiding.
7. Matthew, India explicitly rejects any appearance of an anti-China US-India relationship because it is frightened to death of PRC. Again, the want all advantages of an alliances without giving back anything meaningful.
Purely BTW, after the junk USSR/Russia with which India filled its arsenals, India is amazed and delighted at their new capabilities from US. It has taken them a very long to understand that on a life-cycle + capability basis, US weapons are the most cost effective in the world. Its just that India has too few. For eg, there is a clear need for 30 P-8, but India has only 16, and GOI wont sanction money for more. GOI agreed to 24 C-17, but sanctioned only 11, and now this aircraft which is critical to Indian logistics against PRC is out of production.
Last, militarily China knows as of now it will get thrashed by India. But (a) since China began modernization in 2017, the gap is closing rapidly and (b) Politically and top PLA brass have only contempt for India because Delhi is so easily outmaneuvered - all the way back to 1950.
There is much more to India's totally mixed up approach to the US, but I dont want to bore you.
Our SecState, Anthony Blinken served in the Clinton, Obama and now the Biden administrations, all of which leaned leftward toward diplomatic schmoozing up to Islam in ways that IMO netted the U.S. few good results. You could make a case that Republican administrations didn't fare much better. I just don't believe it is in any Democrat's DNA to want to achieve any meaningful rapprochement with India even if it has the third-largest Muslim population in the world because only about 11% of India is Muslim and those are probably seen as oppressed by the majority religion. Let's remember too, that Blinken served and trained under SecState John Kerry. Even if I got it wrong in the above, Blinken doesn't even have the chops to rename Main Street to MLK Boulevard in East Podunk, NE. There'll be a 2 year wait at least to even dream of cozying up to India in a meaning way. Maybe more if the other side can fine tune the election process.
I remain utterly boggled by our inability to get a package together to get India off Russian tech. The sort of low-level foot-dragging describing here seems to be indicative of a refusal to prioritize what should be a key relationship in any attempt to actually compete with China.
India is a fascinating state--another dysfunctional democracy, but more a neurosis than a psychosis although if you are a woman or from certain castes the psychosis is real. Too, India was in bed with the Soviet Union for so long that old habits vis-a-vis Russia die hard.
She sits astride a geopolitical disaster waiting to happen with Pakistan, China, the other "Stans," and then places like Iran and Afghanistan serving as petri dishes for further diffusion of nastiness. But demographics will out. Having a large, semi-free, literate population will always be a huge advantage, it is why autocracies kill intellectuals first. But yeah, Sal, we need to keep the largest democracy on the face of the planet firmly in focus...
best, John (T. Kuehn)
It is not just at the US end that things are screwed up. Dealing India's bureaucracy makes our State Dept. look like a model of speed an efficiency. The desire to ween India off of Russian weapons come up against that same bureaucracy and India understandable desire to design and build local (which is hampered by that same bureaucracy) For example: It took years for India's bureaucracy to finalize the purchase of 24 American MH-60R Seahawks. India's military preferred the Israeli made Spike ATGM but the government forced the purchase of the was going with the locally made Nag ATGM.
When I was the India Policy Director for USPACOM back in 2012-2015, I used to say that putting resources/energy/emphasis on India was an investment and doing the same was insurance when it came to China. The problem has been and will continue to be for some time is that India is the Jan Brady of the Indo-Asia-Pacific...and it's all about Marcia, Marcia, Marcia.
Thank you for an intelligent and professional discussion.
I am of Indian birth (before Partition) and spent 20-years as an adult researching India-Pakistan-China security (along with keeping up with US/NATO/Russia etc). I've also written 30+ books focused on Indian security.
With all respect to the Commander and his State department source:
1. India wants everything from US including protection if attacked by China, but wants to give US as little as possible. India as a democracy did not condemn Russia over Ukraine, took the opportunity to buy cheap oil, and justified itself by saying we need to look after our own interests.
2. India is not a rules based and morals based society but acts opportunistically. It is a different culture from ours. Its way of thinking cannot be deciphered by the best psychologist.
3. Though India has only a $3 trillion GDP, it wants US to accept it as a threshold superpower heading for superpower status. Meanwhile, it sees its role as a superpower as lecturing everyone (same always) which earned India the label of hypocrisy personified.
4. PRC is choking India on all fronts and India is so scared of PRC it denies that PRC is bit-by-bit taking over territory.
5. I kept in close touch with US Embassy Delhi and please accept that no one worked harder to improve relations with a Job-like patience, accepting every insult India gave. State (and US in general) dont understand that India knows to respect only force.
6. I agree with John, Carl, and Chris that we must keep trying to improve relations, but I warn that when a crisis between US and China erupts, India will be be found in a cave hiding.
7. Matthew, India explicitly rejects any appearance of an anti-China US-India relationship because it is frightened to death of PRC. Again, the want all advantages of an alliances without giving back anything meaningful.
Purely BTW, after the junk USSR/Russia with which India filled its arsenals, India is amazed and delighted at their new capabilities from US. It has taken them a very long to understand that on a life-cycle + capability basis, US weapons are the most cost effective in the world. Its just that India has too few. For eg, there is a clear need for 30 P-8, but India has only 16, and GOI wont sanction money for more. GOI agreed to 24 C-17, but sanctioned only 11, and now this aircraft which is critical to Indian logistics against PRC is out of production.
Last, militarily China knows as of now it will get thrashed by India. But (a) since China began modernization in 2017, the gap is closing rapidly and (b) Politically and top PLA brass have only contempt for India because Delhi is so easily outmaneuvered - all the way back to 1950.
There is much more to India's totally mixed up approach to the US, but I dont want to bore you.
Our SecState, Anthony Blinken served in the Clinton, Obama and now the Biden administrations, all of which leaned leftward toward diplomatic schmoozing up to Islam in ways that IMO netted the U.S. few good results. You could make a case that Republican administrations didn't fare much better. I just don't believe it is in any Democrat's DNA to want to achieve any meaningful rapprochement with India even if it has the third-largest Muslim population in the world because only about 11% of India is Muslim and those are probably seen as oppressed by the majority religion. Let's remember too, that Blinken served and trained under SecState John Kerry. Even if I got it wrong in the above, Blinken doesn't even have the chops to rename Main Street to MLK Boulevard in East Podunk, NE. There'll be a 2 year wait at least to even dream of cozying up to India in a meaning way. Maybe more if the other side can fine tune the election process.