CDR, great job; I think you got the planning assumptions right. This was in the works for a long time, and is a horrific intelligence failure on the part of Israel and the U.S.. To anyone who says "we saw this coming", I'll refer them to Jake Sullivan's recent article (and subsequent "revised" version). Not even a foreign policy moron would publish that article if they knew better. How far up the chain does this go is to me THE critical question. Iran is definitely involved, but were they calling the shots with respect to the timing (50th anniversary) and level of violence? Are other players involved outside of the Middle East (Russia, China) and how deeply? If they are, what is the goal of this unfolding disaster? Wiping Israel off the map, just stirring up trouble, or fulfilling the Iranian Millenial belief in the 12th Imam / Mahdi? This last is why Iran getting a nuke is so dangerous, as they are the most likely to use it because part of their culture would feel it is their duty / destiny to do so...
I think of Hamas, ISIS, and the Central American drug cartels in the same regard in terms of sheer ruthlessness and non-concern for their own population. I find it mind-boggling unbelievable that the UN and 30% of US thinks it's cruel that Israel has stopped fuel shipments to Gaza. The fuel would be used for one purpose only...to fire more rockets at Israel. There is only good endgame result...the elimination of Hamas from the human gene pool.
I honestly think we are over-focusing on what Hamas planned to get out of this. Hamas leadership are beholden to Iran, and the rank and file just want to kill Jews.
The more important way to look at this is as COA from an IRANIAN planning perspective.
In that respect, I think the goal for the operation, from the start was deliberately to provoke a massive Israeli ground response.
Were it not for the hostages, Israel could tighten the screws, sit back and pick off Hamas leadership with drones and airstrikes while reinforcing the border. They could open the spigot on humanitarian supplies to lessen world condemnation, and then just begin an unrelenting air campaign that everyone would mostly tune out after the first month, provided it remained 'surgical'.
Taking the hostages was the deliberate play to ensure Israel would have to invade, while also giving Hamas some sort of leverage. the barbaric cruelty was DESIGNED to provoke an emotional response from Israel.
Iran - and Hamas - WANT a ground war in Gaza, because they think it lets them inflame the passions of the arab - and to some extent the entire muslim - street.
They WANT to re-awaken global jihad against the west.
See, as I posted earlier in response to a question about whether Sunni or Shiite extremism was the greater threat, for the most part, AlQaida, AQAP, ISIS, etc, became locked into the 'Anti-West (Anti US)' struggle, and for many, Israel became a backwater issue.
Iran despises the West and especially the US. I'm certain they are sincere in their hatred of Israel ass well, but it is a part of their larger hatred of the West.
But Iran recognized that the arab nations were willing to reconcile with Israel, and put aside the Palestinian issue.
But most arab/muslim populations have NOT forgotten. For the people of those countries, their leadership is 180 from them. The peoples of those countries would focus far more on Israel than on the west.
And so, Iran's plan is to draw Israel into a bloody ground war, that will prevent the arab states from moving closer to Israel (lest their populations string them up), and in so doing, bring the entire muslim world back on track to hating Israel AND the west, since that hatred of Israel and a protracted war will provide ample fodder for blaming the west for Israel's 'crimes'.
Keep in mind, I'm 100% pro-Israel here. I just think we've allowed the idiots to run things for too long, and Israel got complacent.
I KNOW Israel has to invade. I HOPE they have planner smarter than me who can see that just because they have no choice, and they are allowing the enemy to have the initiative, doesn't mean they can't still be creative.
I'm really not sure what a good outcome looks like here.
My guess is that Hamas (et al) wants a protracted, brutal war with the goal of Israel expending all of its robust munitions and exhausts its ability to beg or borrow more. Then they go man-to-man in a slug fest with knives, clubs & guns using the tactical advantage of millions of young Arab men with no futures who are eager to kill Jews or die trying and who'll go straight to Paradise and their 72 virgins. No doubt the West will be horrified but probably relieved in the end when one side wins and the other side is annihilated and this can be put to bed permanently or kicked down the road for 10-15 years. Hamas wants COA-C. https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/10/this-is-totally-fine/
The reason is best expressed in the movie Independence Day in the scene where the President confronts the captured alien. No peace, we want you to die.
Excellent analysis that would easily earn an "A" at the NWC.
My guess is that the Israelis are holding the bulk of their forces in reserve and building up supplies just in case of an all out attack by Iran and its proxies. HAMAS itself will be dealt with slowly over time. One building destroyed at a time. One tunnel cleaned out at a time. One terrorist killed at a time. There will be no infantry assaults on heavily fortified positions.
The UN will pass resolutions, but it's very unlikely that any countries will send their soldiers to die on behalf of Gaza.
I heard a story - which may be apocryphal - that General Dyan was once asked what would happen in the future. He said that would you see today is what you will see tomorrow.
Perhaps the answer lies in the observation that Hamas et al are the agents of Iranian policy, the objective of which is to have their proxies conduct the war in Gaza and Israel. Why fight the war Iran has designed, planned & prepared for?
Isolate Gaza, the West Bank & Lebanon from resupply. Do not enter Gaza in the near term. Fortify the Israeli border and prepare to decimate sorties out of those isolated bastions if they come into the open.
In the mean time identify Iranian targets that support the proxies, either by manufacturing munitions/components, or shipping them (along with any other relief supplies). Destroy the Iranian capacity to sustain the war by hitting those Iranian targets with sustained air/missile strikes.
Hold Israeli nukes, but warn that movement of Iranian armed forces to directly strike Israel will be met with the destruction of such forces and the decapitation of the Iranian government.
I understand that Hamas wants Israel destroyed with all its Jews. They have refused to cooperate with Israel or others to end the issue or at lease to lesson the tension. They are not really interested in anything else. the Bible promises mean nothing to them. I am certain Hamas will have to be hit HARD where it hurts unless you want this to go on for another 50 years. Not sure the US has the gonads for it.
Good points, Sal. Israel is really in the "Damned if you/damned if you don't" infinite Do Loop. Hamas now states that 50 hostages have been killed by IDF bombing - and if you believe that then you probably believe that "Palestinians" are Allah's chosen people. And IF Israel stops bombing they might release "more". Hamas is assuming the IDF will play by the old rules - "we kill some, they come kill some, we make peace, we get to keep 98% of our organization intact, and start re-arming".
I had a flash of a mental picture when the news first broke of the Hamas raids...an image of John Wayne in The Searchers rubbing down his horse while saying “It shapes up to be a murder raid.” Hamas wants to fight on its own ground, the hostages are to ensure that the Israelis accept the invitation.
First thought when news came out about the Maine shooter that there's a real good chance he's Palestinian. All these Palestinian protestors in the US, I would have the FBI keeping real close tabs on their leaders. They honestly think that they should dictate US foreign policy. I'd start deporting them real soon.
Some men just want to watch the world burn.
Same as the irredeemable scorpion with the frog.
What do they want? Death to Israel, Israelis and Jews worldwide. For a start. These Hamas vermin must be hunted and killed; there is no other way.
CDR, great job; I think you got the planning assumptions right. This was in the works for a long time, and is a horrific intelligence failure on the part of Israel and the U.S.. To anyone who says "we saw this coming", I'll refer them to Jake Sullivan's recent article (and subsequent "revised" version). Not even a foreign policy moron would publish that article if they knew better. How far up the chain does this go is to me THE critical question. Iran is definitely involved, but were they calling the shots with respect to the timing (50th anniversary) and level of violence? Are other players involved outside of the Middle East (Russia, China) and how deeply? If they are, what is the goal of this unfolding disaster? Wiping Israel off the map, just stirring up trouble, or fulfilling the Iranian Millenial belief in the 12th Imam / Mahdi? This last is why Iran getting a nuke is so dangerous, as they are the most likely to use it because part of their culture would feel it is their duty / destiny to do so...
I think of Hamas, ISIS, and the Central American drug cartels in the same regard in terms of sheer ruthlessness and non-concern for their own population. I find it mind-boggling unbelievable that the UN and 30% of US thinks it's cruel that Israel has stopped fuel shipments to Gaza. The fuel would be used for one purpose only...to fire more rockets at Israel. There is only good endgame result...the elimination of Hamas from the human gene pool.
Israel having to hit Gaza and Lebanon at the same time is going to be difficult, but might buy them a decade of relative peace.
And the Iranians will be stuck mumbling about relying on Arabs.
Sal,
I honestly think we are over-focusing on what Hamas planned to get out of this. Hamas leadership are beholden to Iran, and the rank and file just want to kill Jews.
The more important way to look at this is as COA from an IRANIAN planning perspective.
In that respect, I think the goal for the operation, from the start was deliberately to provoke a massive Israeli ground response.
Were it not for the hostages, Israel could tighten the screws, sit back and pick off Hamas leadership with drones and airstrikes while reinforcing the border. They could open the spigot on humanitarian supplies to lessen world condemnation, and then just begin an unrelenting air campaign that everyone would mostly tune out after the first month, provided it remained 'surgical'.
Taking the hostages was the deliberate play to ensure Israel would have to invade, while also giving Hamas some sort of leverage. the barbaric cruelty was DESIGNED to provoke an emotional response from Israel.
Iran - and Hamas - WANT a ground war in Gaza, because they think it lets them inflame the passions of the arab - and to some extent the entire muslim - street.
They WANT to re-awaken global jihad against the west.
See, as I posted earlier in response to a question about whether Sunni or Shiite extremism was the greater threat, for the most part, AlQaida, AQAP, ISIS, etc, became locked into the 'Anti-West (Anti US)' struggle, and for many, Israel became a backwater issue.
Iran despises the West and especially the US. I'm certain they are sincere in their hatred of Israel ass well, but it is a part of their larger hatred of the West.
But Iran recognized that the arab nations were willing to reconcile with Israel, and put aside the Palestinian issue.
But most arab/muslim populations have NOT forgotten. For the people of those countries, their leadership is 180 from them. The peoples of those countries would focus far more on Israel than on the west.
And so, Iran's plan is to draw Israel into a bloody ground war, that will prevent the arab states from moving closer to Israel (lest their populations string them up), and in so doing, bring the entire muslim world back on track to hating Israel AND the west, since that hatred of Israel and a protracted war will provide ample fodder for blaming the west for Israel's 'crimes'.
Keep in mind, I'm 100% pro-Israel here. I just think we've allowed the idiots to run things for too long, and Israel got complacent.
I KNOW Israel has to invade. I HOPE they have planner smarter than me who can see that just because they have no choice, and they are allowing the enemy to have the initiative, doesn't mean they can't still be creative.
I'm really not sure what a good outcome looks like here.
My guess is that Hamas (et al) wants a protracted, brutal war with the goal of Israel expending all of its robust munitions and exhausts its ability to beg or borrow more. Then they go man-to-man in a slug fest with knives, clubs & guns using the tactical advantage of millions of young Arab men with no futures who are eager to kill Jews or die trying and who'll go straight to Paradise and their 72 virgins. No doubt the West will be horrified but probably relieved in the end when one side wins and the other side is annihilated and this can be put to bed permanently or kicked down the road for 10-15 years. Hamas wants COA-C. https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/10/this-is-totally-fine/
The reason is best expressed in the movie Independence Day in the scene where the President confronts the captured alien. No peace, we want you to die.
https://youtu.be/dZc1V67XzNw?si=14jRzaGsjJX0qaSV
Excellent analysis that would easily earn an "A" at the NWC.
My guess is that the Israelis are holding the bulk of their forces in reserve and building up supplies just in case of an all out attack by Iran and its proxies. HAMAS itself will be dealt with slowly over time. One building destroyed at a time. One tunnel cleaned out at a time. One terrorist killed at a time. There will be no infantry assaults on heavily fortified positions.
The UN will pass resolutions, but it's very unlikely that any countries will send their soldiers to die on behalf of Gaza.
I heard a story - which may be apocryphal - that General Dyan was once asked what would happen in the future. He said that would you see today is what you will see tomorrow.
What a absurd situation. The Muslim world can’t make a fridge and all they can do is hate.
These young men keep getting manipulated by fat cats that sit back watching other men die.
Like I said, absurd.
Perhaps the answer lies in the observation that Hamas et al are the agents of Iranian policy, the objective of which is to have their proxies conduct the war in Gaza and Israel. Why fight the war Iran has designed, planned & prepared for?
Isolate Gaza, the West Bank & Lebanon from resupply. Do not enter Gaza in the near term. Fortify the Israeli border and prepare to decimate sorties out of those isolated bastions if they come into the open.
In the mean time identify Iranian targets that support the proxies, either by manufacturing munitions/components, or shipping them (along with any other relief supplies). Destroy the Iranian capacity to sustain the war by hitting those Iranian targets with sustained air/missile strikes.
Hold Israeli nukes, but warn that movement of Iranian armed forces to directly strike Israel will be met with the destruction of such forces and the decapitation of the Iranian government.
Just thinking out loud.
I understand that Hamas wants Israel destroyed with all its Jews. They have refused to cooperate with Israel or others to end the issue or at lease to lesson the tension. They are not really interested in anything else. the Bible promises mean nothing to them. I am certain Hamas will have to be hit HARD where it hurts unless you want this to go on for another 50 years. Not sure the US has the gonads for it.
Good points, Sal. Israel is really in the "Damned if you/damned if you don't" infinite Do Loop. Hamas now states that 50 hostages have been killed by IDF bombing - and if you believe that then you probably believe that "Palestinians" are Allah's chosen people. And IF Israel stops bombing they might release "more". Hamas is assuming the IDF will play by the old rules - "we kill some, they come kill some, we make peace, we get to keep 98% of our organization intact, and start re-arming".
I am hopeful they grossly miscalculated.
They want me dead. They want all Jews dead, all Christians converted to mohammedanism, and to rule the world.
I do not wish to be dead. We may an argument about that.
I had a flash of a mental picture when the news first broke of the Hamas raids...an image of John Wayne in The Searchers rubbing down his horse while saying “It shapes up to be a murder raid.” Hamas wants to fight on its own ground, the hostages are to ensure that the Israelis accept the invitation.
First thought when news came out about the Maine shooter that there's a real good chance he's Palestinian. All these Palestinian protestors in the US, I would have the FBI keeping real close tabs on their leaders. They honestly think that they should dictate US foreign policy. I'd start deporting them real soon.