115 Comments

Seems like evolving mind-shifting navel-gazing exercise ...

The Overton Window - places ideas / models on a continuum

of social acceptability, for a given group, at a given time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window?wprov=sfti1

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It's like this never happened before.......oh wait.

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solution?

More FON cruises

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Sure would be nice to have a 500-ship Navy and six month deployments. Fortunately our self-sacrificing young officers and recruits are made of hardy stuff and have no problems with 9-12 month deployments.

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Too bad they will never have a chance to have kids and pass on the good genes.

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It would be nice if the CCP would just come out and say which imperial dynasty and tributary states they consider to be the "historical norm" that they are working from. I'm sure their border nations would like to know that as well. Recognizing, of course, that there are diplomatic and military benefits that they avail themselves to by maintaining the current nebulosity.

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They have said it. Not in English mind you, but they have said that they want to re-capture the territory formally held under the Qing dynasty. And yes, that includes Taiwan. Xi Jinping Thought also contemplates reorganizing the international world order "Under Heaven", i.e. under the PRC, that is under Xi Jinping. Again, I really cannot believe that academics in 2023 are still trying to argue that we do not know what the CCP under Xi wants. You can only hold that position if you are completely ignorant of what the CCP messaging is to their own population and in their Mandarin published documents.

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Their telling DoD to fuck-off tells you they see themselves as large and in charge.

That along with the departure of some our own previously stalwart vassal states should be setting off alarms in D.C.

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Like the Martians in "MARS ATTACKS" they keep telling Joe Inc and Milley one thing but doing the other.

Joe Inc and Milley are told they won't attack but then will.

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Good Info!

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Really well put here, Sal.

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Thanks!

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It was!

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I know the dividing lines between "brown water navy," "green water navy," and "blue water navy" are blurry. But can the PLAN project power with lasting effect past the Straits of Malacca?

If a rival navy decided to park some combatants in the Indian Ocean astride China's oil umbilical cord, what plausible response by the PLAN would keep China from running dry?

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Your comment is exactly why the ChiComs are so intent on building a Navy. They depend on trade. After WWII the USN kept the sea lanes open. Now, as the CDR said, "As our budget and fleet shrinks in real terms," who will keep the oceans open for China's trade?

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In THIS regard, they have a long way to go. Air dominance ensures their missile tubes on ships will never get close. They have a long way to go to having substantial, trained air wings on their newest carrier with CATOBAR. If they sortied against a US Carrier group one on one, they would be sunk. They have a ways to go to even up the numbers with the US in capital ships.

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War with the US is not the issue. Pirates, and nation states are. As our Navy collapses into piles of rust, who is going to keep the sea lanes open? Our ships can't leave the pier. For China, which is dependant on trade, a blue-water navy is a must.

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China is actually very anti-pirate per policy. It's probably window dressing to build out a military relationship with the Gulf states but they also have a lot of cultural aversion to piracy and disorder in general.

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And, most importantly, they are absolutely dependant on international sea-borne trade. If the sea lanes are closed, millions of Chinese will starve.

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This is true. It doesn't mean they have to have this type of aggressive military response to that - merely enough to ensure their ability to participate in international security arrangements in concert with other nations against such threats in a cooperative framework.

No, that isn't what they are doing. They are building an expeditionary force capable of projecting offensive firepower in areas they do not control and to protect those illegal claims or forceful acquisitions.

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Kill their tankers.

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Aye, and take out their pre-positioned munition stockpiles and logistics.

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Yeah, I think PRC leadership knows that vulnerability exists. Look at their attempt to broker a maritime relationship with Iran/Saudi Arabia/UAE and their BRI efforts in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Cambodia. They are definitely trying to expand their capacity to reduce that vulnerability.

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The PRC is fully aware that their "blue water" navy has never steamed a CSG (with logistical fleet support ships) a distance to/from the Strait of Hormuz to it's own ports. Vulnerability of essential materials (oil, food, strategic minerals, fertilizers, etc.) is clearly self-evident to the CCP. Any interdiction on our part would be a major escalation and I wouldn't bet on having the resolve and backing of the international community behind us for such actions. Very messy proposition.

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The IJN was scoffed at by the US up till Pearl Harbor, not so much after.

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I don't think it's a healthy thing to underestimate what the PLAN can do or not. While they don't have operational experience with a carrier strike group steaming very far from their shores, they will most certainly gain that experience in time. And given how the PLAN spits out type 055 destroyers like gumballs, building out a meaningful fleet of logistical support ships is likely; as well as an intent to get good at fleet replenishment. They will also have the benefit of lessons learned from studying everyone else's past mistakes.

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What was your experience in learning to do your job in your first billet on a ship? Who did you learn your job from - a CPO? Senior Chief? Master Chief? Where are those guys in the PLAN?

How about the officers? How long do you think it takes them to learn how to operate the ship, fight the ship, fight in coordination with other ships in a DESRON or surface action group? Much less support carrier operations or learn strategy and tactics for joint operations of a carrier group?

Where is the salt in the veins of the PLAN that gives them the institutional experience and knowledge of these things? It is all theoretical for them...and it will take time and evolutions to learn all of these things - many that won't be learned until after a fight.

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We’d get the chance to see how much our ASW skill has degraded. And can you imagine the green nut backers of the current admin after the USN covers the coast of Pakistan and India with a million barrels of crude? Can you imagine the Indian and Pakistani public response?

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A good spinmeister could easily make the case that some spilled crude oil is a nothing burger, that they are befouling their section of Gaia already and that any effluvia sent to their coasts in no way matches what they dump into their own environment now. In addition to that, we could double down in our self-crippling war on carbon based energy as a mea culpa.

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They've been making strides on ASW and have regained a lot of expertise. And those P-8s are great platforms, too.

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They will wait a thousand years to set that straight, We think in four year Leaders and policies, they think in longer time spans.

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Build ships, build subs, build missiles. Keep building planes on the current schedule. That will do it.

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Build ships? Which ships? The little crappy ships? The gunless cruiser-sized destroyer with the radar that does not work. The CVNs that can't launch planes? Which would you like?

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The SPY-6 works great, so I don't know what you are talking about - and they are putting missile tubes in to replace the gun mounts on the Zumwalts. But yeah, build a lot of Burke IIIs and the Constellation frigates - all with VLTs - would make a huge difference. Heck, even more NSCs could be laid down. a lot better than the LCSs! But you've got to be able to build 4 of each every year, not struggle to lay down 2.

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I am not, by any measure, a fan of the CCP. That said, has China ever renounced their claim to Taiwan from the time it was peeled off from them? Has China ever waivered in it's claim to Formosa from the time it was invaded by Japan in 1894? Post-WWII, has the CCP ever hinted at anything less than the full reintegration of Taiwan? Should we expect anything less in the way of rhetoric from the PRC's senior military leadership in response to the "Taiwan" question? China has never displayed anything less than a full expectation of reintegration and has not had the means until now to produce an outcome that reintegrates Taiwain into China. In light of the century of shame and the "unequal treaties", I imagine this is a fight that CCP is prepared to mete out to it's adversaries to also settle some "old scores." Now the CCP believes it has both the resolve and the means to satisfy the aim they've have always had and I deeply skeptical they we have the means or the resolve for the consequences that will eventually follow should conflict arise. What we have now is reckless rhetoric and posturing by political "elites" (who I would note will not pay the price in human treasure should conflict come) and who are very likely strengthening the CCP's resolve.

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Given your statement regarding the CCP's resolve over the Taiwan issue, I find it breathtaking that you still have academics like Meiser arguing that Xi's CCP is "uncertain" about what they want. If it is in any way true (he hasn't demonstrated this imho), it certainly is not the case in regards to Taiwan. And Taiwan is the most likely spark in a future Sino-American conflict.

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I simply don't understand how the word "uncertain" creeps into any of this given the legacy of China's perspective on the Taiwan question. For reasons I cannot explain, I don't believe we are compelling and persuasive deterrent in any of this. As to uncertainty on Xi's part? Probably more on weighing the risks of a successful amphib landing on the scale of the landing at Sicily during WWII. My personal (uninformed) opinion on the matter is that Taiwan's greatest opportunity to keep things status quo is an expansive and sustainable offensive/defensive mine warfare strategy... along with a deeply nested, redundant IADs and a few 100K inexpensive drones with a great affinity for small landing craft.

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It is short-sighted to look at China through a western lens. Importantly, the PRC is not the only entity which says that Formosa is part of "one China." The Republic of China thinks exactly the same, Formosa is part of "one China." We are not dealing with a situation where Taiwan wants to be left alone as an independent nation. Both governments continued to claim legitimacy as the government of all of China.

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I'm hardly looking at this through a western lens. This is a historical position that doesn't appear to have changed one wit from the perspective of the mainland since the Japanese occupation and, subsequently, post WWII when the Kuomintang fled to Formosa. As to the matter of "legitimacy" ... perhaps I'm not the one looking at this through a "western lens"??? The "legitimacy" of China's "nine dash line" was supposedly "settled" by a ruling of The Hague's International Tribunal which the PRC ignored entirely. Legitimacy from the PRC's perspective is in the eye of the beholder and who possesses the means to an end.

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Have been to Taiwan several times 50+ years ago. The people there seemed happy in their own nationhood apart from Red China. I wish them well and am no Red China fan. Now imagine if in August 1974 President Richard Nixon, knowing of his imminent impeachment, imprisonment and defeat had looted Fort Knox, absconded with 75,000 loyal troops and executive branch camp followers to Puerto Rico and claimed to be "El Presidente de los Estados Unidos, incluida la tierra principal ocupada (the main land)" and had stood firm with his Kuomintang until the present day. DC would be a little miffed, I think. So too, Peking.

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Well, being that they were actually fighting a civil war...not just having a political kerfuffle...I don't think the Nationalists gave a hoot in hell what Mao and the CCP thought. They both agree on one China, just not who the rightful government is. China wants to continue the war and settle it by force. We supported the Nationalists, until we didn't (Vinegar Joe saw to that)...and they still have a right to defend themselves against the claims of the CCP.

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This is the biggest issue that I have with Jeff Meiser's article and approach. They either assume without demonstrating that the current PRC leadership is uncertain about their long-term strategic end goals or mistake a perceived intelligence gap about the PRC's leadership intentions with a black box, an unknowable unknown. Neither is the case. Very simply. "When the PRC tells you who they are..." believe them. More accurately, when they tell their people, who they are and what they want; and they show the world who they are, than believe them. One does not have to shift through ancient Chinese history or compare what Deng did to what Mao did in order to know what Xi has done, is doing and what he is telling his own people in his own language to get ready for.

Secondly, the alarm over the latest aggressive unprofessional behavior by the PLA(+/- etc.) is warranted. Yes, the Soviets may have done worse at times, but we also had a direct line of military-to-military communication with the Soviets and treaties regarding the proper conduct for making approaches in order to prevent escalation. Neither exist between the US and PRC today. And the efforts over the past six-months by the Biden Administration to get military-to-military communication have been rebuffed by the CCP. Moreover, Xi and his lackeys have made it clear that absent pretty unwarranted concessions by the Biden Administration, military-to-military communication will not be established.

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All snark aside? The Chinese are feeling the unconstrained arrogance of a totalitarian state that has not had a national humiliation in over a generation with the last carriers to cruise the Taiwan Straits.

Like 1940's Japan? They are a generation that has never lost a confrontation.

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The Americans are feeling the unconstrained arrogance of a state that has not had a national humiliation in over a generation.

They are a generation that has never lost a confrontation (that mattered).

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You are partially correct. But not for the reasons you think.

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I remember the saber-rattling Taiwan Straits Patrols. What a great opportunity for ELINT and updating the EW EOB, not that surface ship ELINT did anything but poison the database. (sigh) Are those patrols even a thing anymore? Does the PLA pitch tents and picnic on Quemoy and Matsu on weekends?

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Right on Sal. I intercepted and “escorted” many Russian Bear aircraft in the Med years ago. Frequently checked out the PLAYBOY centerfolds the rear gunner held up in his window. Watch the PRC carefully but watch the “cry wolf” stuff.

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Pardon my ignorance. Which airplane had a tail gunner when B-52s were flying around?

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Well, he did say this too!

"For China, we always say mind your own business, take good care of your own vessels, your fighter jets, take good care of your own territorial airspace......."

Two takeaways,

1. Please paint your ships they look like shit.

2. Would someone please forward that to the leaders of Canada and the USA? - China has now officially authorized them to shootdown big balloons.

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Chinese military aged males are sneaking into our borders on the order of thousands. It is estimated that they have close to 5000 military aged males in the US right now. That’s enough for 5-7 battalions. Suppose their weapons are already cached in the US? They aren’t here looking for jobs or escaping China. Recalling the one child policy, that resulted in mostly male children, and knowing the value the families in China place on these young men, it’s doubtful they could be here with out some type of contact and approval of the parents. The CCP also applies pressure and monitors it’s citizens very closely. This also means these militray age males are also likely here by permission or assignment. Why are they here? “Unrestricted Warfare” is the answer. Interesting times. We have a front row seat.

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Jesus dude lay off the drugs.

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There are panels of analysts discussing this right now. Michael Yon is verifying with video interviews in the Darien Gap

https://rumble.com/v2q97yo-webinar-kinetic-war-on-the-u.s.-home-front-the-ccps-plans-to-attack-america.html

https://twitter.com/SebGorka/status/1664663085154459648

Stop being a Normie and consider the possibility and the consequences.

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There are thousands of military aged males from the PRC in America right now.... they study in your colleges and work in your companies.

Wouldn't the CPC/PLA send them on planes and live normal lives?

the fuck would they walk across the border lol? you so stupid.

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Chinese Citizens at the Southern Border, Explained

Thousands of Chinese nationals are trekking through Latin America to seek asylum in the U.S.

By Harvest Prude

Jun 3, 2023

It's been documented.

They walked across the border.

lol! you so stupid!

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So you should welcome them then? Escaping the evil CCP.... save the freedom loving Chinaman.

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They aren’t escaping. They are on PCS orders. Their families wouldn’t accept them “abandoning” China nor would they be permitted to leave by the CCP. You should seriously step out of the normalcy bias.

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Kinda' depends. As a kid I had friends that families had either escaped the White Terror or one of Mao's purges. In both cases the families wanted to be American. -That's okay.

However, my son's recent experience going to college with mainland, well connected CCP Chinese at university? As a young black male he has found them and their no BMW rule to be amusing.

What is the BMW rule? Their parents forbid them from having Black, Mexican, or White friends.

As a professional? I've found most educated Chinese to be both elitist and arrogant towards coworkers they felt were beneath their own status. Which kinda' contradicts the official CCP policy of Common Prosperity to bolster social equality and economic equity.

The modern young CCP connected youth is a piece of shit that should be purged. But, if you're here to be an American? Come on in. Guess it just depends on your elitist status, don't it?

Orwell smiles.

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Don't care if they're seeking asylum or here for other purposes.

Country is full, deport them all.

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Say goodbye to your high tech sector then.

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Cut the personal attacks or I'll ban you. Two strikes.

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OK fair enough. Hope the other posters also get the same warning...

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Chinese “police stations” are discovered in the United States and Canada (and other countries) with the explicit mission of coercion and control of the Chinese agents in our colleges and corporations.

Your use of “your colleges” demonstrates you’re not American infact I bet you need to clear the comments you post with your Chinese Boss.

Chinese infiltration of our border is common knowledge and an open secret among BP and DHS.

Perfect cover for the elite captured in our government to destroy a border policy by admitting millions of mouth breathers of other nationalities so that a couple of thousand Chinese military agents slip in as well. Brilliant strategy actually.

Your stupid comment indicates: 1. you are ignorant of Chinese “unrestricted warfare”, historical 5th column activities (including Japanese agents in Hawaii prior to Pearl Harbor) or

2. You’re complicit in the gaslighting by denying the very fact that Chinese males are entering illegally.

I’m gonna go with 2.

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No im in Australia mate.

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You’re gonna be the first ones to feel Chinese military action. You have a massive land mass and a compliant population post Covid vax. Good luck holding the Chinese back. You’re gonna need it.

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CPC doesn't even need a physical "station". Everything can be reported through wechat.

You haven't addressed what advantage the PLA would gain by sending people on foot over flying on commercial flights, and having the correct work/study visas?

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Because they are on a mission. It’s not rocket science.

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Lol WeChat… you don’t seem to grasp the facts. Oh well.

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Without discussing them in detail? The advantages are both manifold and obvious to anyone who is cognizant of what's going on.

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I find it disturbing that, upon discovery, that the police stations were not shut down instantly, and all materials found confiscated.

But Biden would have his Chinese money endangered by that. They have bought him, fair and square.

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Over the past thirty years, I've seen some number of videos of close encounters between US Navy warships and Russian warships,. And now we have one involving a Chinese warship.

The first thing I saw in watching this video, in comparison with other videos from years past, was the extensive rust on the US destroyer's foredeck, in stark contrast with the clean rust-free hull and superstructure of the Chinese warship.

The poor condition of our navy's fleet is one more indication among several that the United States is not prepared, either materially or psychologically, to deal with Chinese aggression in the western Pacific.

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Fleet readiness levels continue to decline. Our fleet logistic support ships are really struggling in terms of their readiness levels and we clearly lack the hulls to do the job properly. For all the the "pivot to Asia" commentary, the latest Insurv report on fleet readiness and recent photos of AB's covered in rust does not a warm & fuzzy make as to our resolve. And that is deeply distressing.

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We also lack the manpower. Navy recruiting not gonna hit goal this year.

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And that is very unlikely to change any time soon.

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Certainly not with the current Joint Chiefs running our military. They have no interest in being an actual military force.

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Watch what happens with the new Chairman of the JCS, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. Recruiting and retention are likely to take a swan dive into a waterless concrete pool. Won't matter though. Manpower shortfalls can always be made up with CAT 4's, felons and the morbidly obese.

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I worked for CQ Brown some time ago and thought he was great then. Now I keep hearing that all is not going well. He seems to have taken a left turn somewhere along the way.

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A few Olympics ago, and I don't remember which one, the comments section of the SFGate (San Francisco Chronicle) was flooded with comments from aggressive PRC operatives, saying things like the United States doesn't actually belong to Americans, because the natives had migrated from Asia. They said openly that China had more claim to the land because they were here first. I'm not commenting on this or that military incident going on now, I want to point out the attitude behind it. Taiwan is not the real prize, the USA is. They told us openly in comments.

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Agree with you on this one, even if we differ in who we support.

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China is imperial, not militant. When they are strong, they expect tribute from vassals. When they are weak, they simply rename the conquerors to maintain neat records. E.g. Mongol conquerors become "Yuan dynasty."

America need only remind xi that China is weak. They have shiny new toys, bit no culture fit to use them in coordinated fashion. Eighty years ago, Nipponese navy had no fire control. Today, PRC has no integrated-arms capabilities.

Walk around the table. Imagine how to play the position from the other side's perspective.

* Demographic fail and utter inability to accept immigration.

* Aging, unproductive economy, trapped between innovative West and far lower cost competitors like Vietnam and a host of others, now including even India.

* Woefully misdirected infrastructure spending, now lost.

Sad to be xi. His foreign adventures are a mere distraction to put off his fall.

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