It would be nice if the CCP would just come out and say which imperial dynasty and tributary states they consider to be the "historical norm" that they are working from. I'm sure their border nations would like to know that as well. Recognizing, of course, that there are diplomatic and military benefits that they avail themselves to by maintaining the current nebulosity.
I know the dividing lines between "brown water navy," "green water navy," and "blue water navy" are blurry. But can the PLAN project power with lasting effect past the Straits of Malacca?
If a rival navy decided to park some combatants in the Indian Ocean astride China's oil umbilical cord, what plausible response by the PLAN would keep China from running dry?
I am not, by any measure, a fan of the CCP. That said, has China ever renounced their claim to Taiwan from the time it was peeled off from them? Has China ever waivered in it's claim to Formosa from the time it was invaded by Japan in 1894? Post-WWII, has the CCP ever hinted at anything less than the full reintegration of Taiwan? Should we expect anything less in the way of rhetoric from the PRC's senior military leadership in response to the "Taiwan" question? China has never displayed anything less than a full expectation of reintegration and has not had the means until now to produce an outcome that reintegrates Taiwain into China. In light of the century of shame and the "unequal treaties", I imagine this is a fight that CCP is prepared to mete out to it's adversaries to also settle some "old scores." Now the CCP believes it has both the resolve and the means to satisfy the aim they've have always had and I deeply skeptical they we have the means or the resolve for the consequences that will eventually follow should conflict arise. What we have now is reckless rhetoric and posturing by political "elites" (who I would note will not pay the price in human treasure should conflict come) and who are very likely strengthening the CCP's resolve.
This is the biggest issue that I have with Jeff Meiser's article and approach. They either assume without demonstrating that the current PRC leadership is uncertain about their long-term strategic end goals or mistake a perceived intelligence gap about the PRC's leadership intentions with a black box, an unknowable unknown. Neither is the case. Very simply. "When the PRC tells you who they are..." believe them. More accurately, when they tell their people, who they are and what they want; and they show the world who they are, than believe them. One does not have to shift through ancient Chinese history or compare what Deng did to what Mao did in order to know what Xi has done, is doing and what he is telling his own people in his own language to get ready for.
Secondly, the alarm over the latest aggressive unprofessional behavior by the PLA(+/- etc.) is warranted. Yes, the Soviets may have done worse at times, but we also had a direct line of military-to-military communication with the Soviets and treaties regarding the proper conduct for making approaches in order to prevent escalation. Neither exist between the US and PRC today. And the efforts over the past six-months by the Biden Administration to get military-to-military communication have been rebuffed by the CCP. Moreover, Xi and his lackeys have made it clear that absent pretty unwarranted concessions by the Biden Administration, military-to-military communication will not be established.
Right on Sal. I intercepted and “escorted” many Russian Bear aircraft in the Med years ago. Frequently checked out the PLAYBOY centerfolds the rear gunner held up in his window. Watch the PRC carefully but watch the “cry wolf” stuff.
"For China, we always say mind your own business, take good care of your own vessels, your fighter jets, take good care of your own territorial airspace......."
Two takeaways,
1. Please paint your ships they look like shit.
2. Would someone please forward that to the leaders of Canada and the USA? - China has now officially authorized them to shootdown big balloons.
Chinese military aged males are sneaking into our borders on the order of thousands. It is estimated that they have close to 5000 military aged males in the US right now. That’s enough for 5-7 battalions. Suppose their weapons are already cached in the US? They aren’t here looking for jobs or escaping China. Recalling the one child policy, that resulted in mostly male children, and knowing the value the families in China place on these young men, it’s doubtful they could be here with out some type of contact and approval of the parents. The CCP also applies pressure and monitors it’s citizens very closely. This also means these militray age males are also likely here by permission or assignment. Why are they here? “Unrestricted Warfare” is the answer. Interesting times. We have a front row seat.
Over the past thirty years, I've seen some number of videos of close encounters between US Navy warships and Russian warships,. And now we have one involving a Chinese warship.
The first thing I saw in watching this video, in comparison with other videos from years past, was the extensive rust on the US destroyer's foredeck, in stark contrast with the clean rust-free hull and superstructure of the Chinese warship.
The poor condition of our navy's fleet is one more indication among several that the United States is not prepared, either materially or psychologically, to deal with Chinese aggression in the western Pacific.
A few Olympics ago, and I don't remember which one, the comments section of the SFGate (San Francisco Chronicle) was flooded with comments from aggressive PRC operatives, saying things like the United States doesn't actually belong to Americans, because the natives had migrated from Asia. They said openly that China had more claim to the land because they were here first. I'm not commenting on this or that military incident going on now, I want to point out the attitude behind it. Taiwan is not the real prize, the USA is. They told us openly in comments.
China is imperial, not militant. When they are strong, they expect tribute from vassals. When they are weak, they simply rename the conquerors to maintain neat records. E.g. Mongol conquerors become "Yuan dynasty."
America need only remind xi that China is weak. They have shiny new toys, bit no culture fit to use them in coordinated fashion. Eighty years ago, Nipponese navy had no fire control. Today, PRC has no integrated-arms capabilities.
Walk around the table. Imagine how to play the position from the other side's perspective.
* Demographic fail and utter inability to accept immigration.
* Aging, unproductive economy, trapped between innovative West and far lower cost competitors like Vietnam and a host of others, now including even India.
* Woefully misdirected infrastructure spending, now lost.
Sad to be xi. His foreign adventures are a mere distraction to put off his fall.
Seems like evolving mind-shifting navel-gazing exercise ...
The Overton Window - places ideas / models on a continuum
of social acceptability, for a given group, at a given time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window?wprov=sfti1
It's like this never happened before.......oh wait.
solution?
More FON cruises
It would be nice if the CCP would just come out and say which imperial dynasty and tributary states they consider to be the "historical norm" that they are working from. I'm sure their border nations would like to know that as well. Recognizing, of course, that there are diplomatic and military benefits that they avail themselves to by maintaining the current nebulosity.
Really well put here, Sal.
I know the dividing lines between "brown water navy," "green water navy," and "blue water navy" are blurry. But can the PLAN project power with lasting effect past the Straits of Malacca?
If a rival navy decided to park some combatants in the Indian Ocean astride China's oil umbilical cord, what plausible response by the PLAN would keep China from running dry?
Build ships, build subs, build missiles. Keep building planes on the current schedule. That will do it.
I am not, by any measure, a fan of the CCP. That said, has China ever renounced their claim to Taiwan from the time it was peeled off from them? Has China ever waivered in it's claim to Formosa from the time it was invaded by Japan in 1894? Post-WWII, has the CCP ever hinted at anything less than the full reintegration of Taiwan? Should we expect anything less in the way of rhetoric from the PRC's senior military leadership in response to the "Taiwan" question? China has never displayed anything less than a full expectation of reintegration and has not had the means until now to produce an outcome that reintegrates Taiwain into China. In light of the century of shame and the "unequal treaties", I imagine this is a fight that CCP is prepared to mete out to it's adversaries to also settle some "old scores." Now the CCP believes it has both the resolve and the means to satisfy the aim they've have always had and I deeply skeptical they we have the means or the resolve for the consequences that will eventually follow should conflict arise. What we have now is reckless rhetoric and posturing by political "elites" (who I would note will not pay the price in human treasure should conflict come) and who are very likely strengthening the CCP's resolve.
This is the biggest issue that I have with Jeff Meiser's article and approach. They either assume without demonstrating that the current PRC leadership is uncertain about their long-term strategic end goals or mistake a perceived intelligence gap about the PRC's leadership intentions with a black box, an unknowable unknown. Neither is the case. Very simply. "When the PRC tells you who they are..." believe them. More accurately, when they tell their people, who they are and what they want; and they show the world who they are, than believe them. One does not have to shift through ancient Chinese history or compare what Deng did to what Mao did in order to know what Xi has done, is doing and what he is telling his own people in his own language to get ready for.
Secondly, the alarm over the latest aggressive unprofessional behavior by the PLA(+/- etc.) is warranted. Yes, the Soviets may have done worse at times, but we also had a direct line of military-to-military communication with the Soviets and treaties regarding the proper conduct for making approaches in order to prevent escalation. Neither exist between the US and PRC today. And the efforts over the past six-months by the Biden Administration to get military-to-military communication have been rebuffed by the CCP. Moreover, Xi and his lackeys have made it clear that absent pretty unwarranted concessions by the Biden Administration, military-to-military communication will not be established.
Right on Sal. I intercepted and “escorted” many Russian Bear aircraft in the Med years ago. Frequently checked out the PLAYBOY centerfolds the rear gunner held up in his window. Watch the PRC carefully but watch the “cry wolf” stuff.
Well, he did say this too!
"For China, we always say mind your own business, take good care of your own vessels, your fighter jets, take good care of your own territorial airspace......."
Two takeaways,
1. Please paint your ships they look like shit.
2. Would someone please forward that to the leaders of Canada and the USA? - China has now officially authorized them to shootdown big balloons.
Chinese military aged males are sneaking into our borders on the order of thousands. It is estimated that they have close to 5000 military aged males in the US right now. That’s enough for 5-7 battalions. Suppose their weapons are already cached in the US? They aren’t here looking for jobs or escaping China. Recalling the one child policy, that resulted in mostly male children, and knowing the value the families in China place on these young men, it’s doubtful they could be here with out some type of contact and approval of the parents. The CCP also applies pressure and monitors it’s citizens very closely. This also means these militray age males are also likely here by permission or assignment. Why are they here? “Unrestricted Warfare” is the answer. Interesting times. We have a front row seat.
Over the past thirty years, I've seen some number of videos of close encounters between US Navy warships and Russian warships,. And now we have one involving a Chinese warship.
The first thing I saw in watching this video, in comparison with other videos from years past, was the extensive rust on the US destroyer's foredeck, in stark contrast with the clean rust-free hull and superstructure of the Chinese warship.
The poor condition of our navy's fleet is one more indication among several that the United States is not prepared, either materially or psychologically, to deal with Chinese aggression in the western Pacific.
A few Olympics ago, and I don't remember which one, the comments section of the SFGate (San Francisco Chronicle) was flooded with comments from aggressive PRC operatives, saying things like the United States doesn't actually belong to Americans, because the natives had migrated from Asia. They said openly that China had more claim to the land because they were here first. I'm not commenting on this or that military incident going on now, I want to point out the attitude behind it. Taiwan is not the real prize, the USA is. They told us openly in comments.
Agree with you on this one, even if we differ in who we support.
China is imperial, not militant. When they are strong, they expect tribute from vassals. When they are weak, they simply rename the conquerors to maintain neat records. E.g. Mongol conquerors become "Yuan dynasty."
America need only remind xi that China is weak. They have shiny new toys, bit no culture fit to use them in coordinated fashion. Eighty years ago, Nipponese navy had no fire control. Today, PRC has no integrated-arms capabilities.
Walk around the table. Imagine how to play the position from the other side's perspective.
* Demographic fail and utter inability to accept immigration.
* Aging, unproductive economy, trapped between innovative West and far lower cost competitors like Vietnam and a host of others, now including even India.
* Woefully misdirected infrastructure spending, now lost.
Sad to be xi. His foreign adventures are a mere distraction to put off his fall.