Where is Taiwan's Cherbourg?
not just any port in a war
In all the stories and movies about the D-Day landings in WWII, one thing that simply is not covered all that much - and as such is mostly missing from the popular memory of that campaign - was the importance of the Cherbourg to the northwest of the beaches.
The WWII museum puts the issue together clearly;
The Utah Beach landings and accompanying parachute drops on June 6, 1944, by the 4th Infantry Division and the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions had one primary objective: to set the stage for the capture of the Cotentin Peninsula and, above all, the port city of Cherbourg. Capturing Cherbourg and its harbor installations was considered vital for the long-term viability of the Normandy landings, for no matter how many supplies were brought ashore on the artificial Mulberry harbors, they could not compete with the capacity of modern port facilities.
Kicking in the door is one thing - being able to hold it and then expand out from there is a whole other problem.
That story came to mind over the weekend when our friend Mark Vandroff asked a little question over on X about the usefulness of the below in logistical support of a Taiwan invasion.
Read the whole thing.
Yes, you read that correctly; 60. Six-Zero.
That had me thinking a bit, and that is when Cherbourg came to mind.
Amphibious landings are one if not the most difficult military operations of any era. It is not a “come as you are” party and unquestionably isn’t a figure it out when you get there thing.
Likewise, from loading to unloading, to pulling up to the pier - modern auto carriers are not an easy ship to get around in.
So, are these dual use ships? Tom Shugart has done some of the best thinking on the topic of dual use possiblities, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) seems to have a habit of thinking this way. Looking at the very civilian construction of these ships and all the limitations that come with that, let’s assume they could be useful in bringing vehicles ashore in a Taiwan invasion scenario - but how?
If these were going to be used for a Taiwan invasion, again I’d bet it would be for a follow-on force unless they get real inventive.
If they need a proper port - like the allies in WWII needed Cherbourg - the question is, where are Taiwan's Cherbourg's that they would use?
If you know they would need one, where are they and how do you make sure Taiwan can hold them longer than the month it took the US to take Cherbourg?
To narrow things down, of course the first thing to do; we look at the chart.
I am sure there are may be other options, but the above seem to be the major west coast ferry terminals. Put the ones near Taipei aside for obvious reasons, and that leaves us with Budai, Anping, Yanpu, and Dongliu.
For reference purposes the distances from Budai to Guangzhou's ferry terminal is ~120nm (NB: the distance from Portsmouth to the landing beaches in Normandy is ~85nm).
One of those four ports it very urban environments will need to be taken intact & appropriate security inland achieved. Once you do that, then yes...I can see how useful those car ferries could be. Though you still need to get them across the Taiwan Strait intact.
The long pole in the tent for the PRC is how they can ensure the sea lines of communication (SLOC) in that 120+nm route are secure.
Taiwan’s job is to make that too hard. So, there is your challenge, what needs to be done to ensure that Taiwan and “friends" can keep those four, and other, ports out of PRC hands for the time it takes for reinforces to come from the east, south, and in a fun timeline the northeast.
On the other side of the coin, what needs to be done to ensure blue-SLOC coming from those three directions remain open to make sure none of those critical ports they need to bring reinforcements ashore are degraded or in some way made unusable by the PRC?
Sal,
I agree, and was looking at the same map in some detail recently asking myself the same questions.
There are some important distinctions though that give me pause.
Our need for Cherbourg was based on the need to push forward an armor and mechanized army, fighting in mostly open terrain, for a maneuver centric style of warfare, and the logistical tail to feed it.
I think everybody on our side needs to step back and ask "How does China plan to defeat Taiwan"?
I don't see that as a war based on lot's of thirsty vehicles maneuvering around. There is no space for it.
Furthermore, a war by China to conquer Taiwan will not be a genocidal war of elimination, as the Chinese see the Taiwanese as their wayward little brothers who need to be brought back into the fold.
What I'm getting at is this: The PEOPLE of Taiwan are the strategic terrain. China's plan will be based on isolating and holding the major population centers (Taiwan is highly urbanized and the vast majority of the population are concentrated on the western (China facing) shore.
You don't need nearly as large a logistical tail to support Infantry, light vehicles, and light artillery, when you have air and sea power.
While I have no doubt the PLAN will plan to capture western ports, I suspect there may be far less use for those car carriers, as the PLA and PLAN Marines will not need that many vehicles.
I think their focus will be on carving out a defensible and reliable sea and air lane to the western beaches.
If they can put enough infantry ashore via landing craft or helo, Taiwan will surrender.
The population are NOT die hard willing to fight to the death. political pressure to end the fight and prevent more civilian casualties will be significant.
I expect the Chinese plan is to force that decision as fast as possible by swamping the Western populated side of the island with massive missile attacks against both military and civilian infrastructure, as well as just enough well placed attacks on purely civilian targets to create widespread fear and panic.
And as soon as they can clear the air and waters enough, they will land upwards of 30 divisions of Infantry and seize the urban centers on the west coast and apply pressure until the government surrenders.
Taiwan should be building Kamakazi drones by the millions, and housing them underground and mines built into Harpoon like cruise missiles so they can mine every Chinese port that can be used against them. Any war is going to be a "come as you are" affair with little spin up or production time.