2027 may also be significant because it marks the 100 anniversary of the beginning of the war between the communists and nationalists which in the mind of the CCP may not be over until Taiwan is incorporated into the mainland. Just a thought.
2049 centenary goals (100 years of PRC) inform 2027 centenary goals. Resolving all territorial disputes is a 2049 centenary goal. Territorial gains do not "resolve" themselves overnight. They will have to start on that path well before 2049 and Xi has stated repeatedly that he will not leave the Taiwan question to the next generation. He is 71 and will not live forever. Xi has been made a "core leader" and wants to surpass Mao's achievement. What is one thing Mao failed to accomplish? Bringing Taiwan into unification with the mainland. Time grows short.
Possibly, Xi will be removed from power by a coup d'etat (rumors currently abound right now) or the ongoing economic meltdown in China will grow and permanently remove China's ability to project power. However, since the best thing that we can control is military preparation it is best to prepare as fast as we can.
CDR, well founded advice. Read your adversaries public musings, for they are his, and will provide a level of information that can be compared to information gleaned about him via open source and "other" National Technical Means (NTM). CCP minutes are what he says. Watch what he actually does (NTM are critical for this), compare the two...and look at the national wealth (the "money"). GDP (measured by metrics NOT provided by the CCP "official" stats, things like shipping numbers, electric consumption, etc.), population demographic trends (population "wealth") industrial production of war use equipment and logistical support. Listen to what they say, watch what they do, and follow the money (wealth). Compare against our own "health" in the same or similar categories. Draw the lines on the chart of health vs time, note where the lines give the greatest advantage to the adversary, there's the window in general terms. BUT, don't underestimate the force multiplier of surprise. You have 2027 marked on the calendar and are planning accordingly? What will you do if things pop tonight? Next month? This spring? Let none of us forget, we sort of produced and innovated the Soviets into insolvency leading to their collapse (which our NTM failed to notice for quite a while after it happened IIRC) as they tried to keep up. Given our current DoD inability to acquire and produce military goods, are we the Soviets here? Also don't disregard Xi's age, health, and strong cultural influence and motivation to secure his "legacy". A complex and potentially world civilization threatening witch's brew to be sure. Note 2027 on the calendar, but don't be "surprised" if something (blockade, actual attack) happens sooner. Trust but verify, and double check the verification.
More than anything else, the US and its allies must be unified and resolute beyond this 2024 election. The world is counting on the US and its allies to carry the banners of law and order.
The alternative is frightening where human rights and lives are cheaper by the day.
Lusting after PRC's pseudo societal and economy advancements is huge mistake, especially for BRICS nations.
PRC promulgate and normalize lawlessness and abuse of human rights.
One of the legacies of the 'one child' policy is a disproportionate number of men to women. If left to itself, there are 105 boys born in a population for every 100 girls. A strict rule that if you deviate from that proportion, someone is putting a thumb on the scale. Selective infanticide, sex-selective abortions. China has about about five men for every four women.
The point of this, to go along with a modernized military, is that you have a bachelor herd. Personnel to fill the ranks of that modernized military. Or, in other words, cannon fodder to expend.
IF (capital IF) those young men become unemployed, it becomes almost a CCP imperative to go to war to preserve the state from a bunch of young males without prospects. So, the unemployment numbers are an economic warning / indicator worth monitoring IF you can get data remotely close to accuracy.
One countervailing note (which may not be dispositive, but is influential): these are only sons of parents whom the state will not care for in their old age. Xi is only dictator for life, and when large numbers of these only sons return in body bags, some of these parents will be miffed...
Xi, from a party founded by Mao, who in his prime could kill humans in odd lots like no other person since Genghis Khan......do you think the powers that be really care?
As the father of an adopted, beautiful Chinese baby girl (now 28), I would say your last point is NOT something that I would shrug off easily as "hyperbole."
North or East, What treasures lie to the North vs what treasures lie to the East? Will the Bear be so injured/tired that a walk North will take minimal effort for maximal gains? Will going East damage what we have built to the point we can't capitalize on the gains? Will the wayward province join us if we just wait them out. Will the Japanese and the South Koreans just sit idly by if we go into Taiwan? There are a huge number of other questions entering the equation in Xi's mind. I also think he believes if he continues to stir the pot, the West will tear itself apart without any effort just by the grift.
The problem with saber rattling with China is the same as the peace dividend. What happens when your enemy leaves the field?
We don’t need a strong navy because of China. We need a strong US Navy because we are an island nation dependent on the free movement of global shipping. We are alone in a hostile world with nobody to rely upon but ourselves.
Hamilton in 1791. “The want of a Navy to protect our external commerce, as long as it shall Continue, must render it a peculiarly precarious reliance, for the supply of essential articles, and must serve to strengthen prodigiously the arguments in favour of manufactures.”
You do need to acquaint yourself with the late Professor Harold Rood of McKenna-Claremont College. His fundamental concept was the US as an island nation surrounded by the Eurasian landmass.
Also the exigencies of war make it necessary to keep the Bill of Rights away from immediate proximity to the field of war. Hence the need to allies for the ability to fight a war over there on the ramparts.
We could only be so lucky as to have the PRC quit the field before the fight. It is not the 1990s anymore. Its well past time for people to stop acting like it is.
“The problem with saber rattling with China is the same as the peace dividend. What happens when your enemy leaves the field?”
EXACTLY!! Like back in the 80’s, things were going GREAT: 600-ship Navy, plenty of OPTAR funds, TOPGUN movie was out and making the airshow demo circuit in the F-14 living like a rock star, dusting off supersonic in full burner that pesky Soviet “trawler” irritating ‘Mother’…man…surely these days would never end…and then the dadgum Russians up and quit on us! Now what? And under Clinton, we saw what.
I posted this late once before and hardly anyone saw it. Assuming the PRC doesn't attack the USN for the heck of it, a counter intuitive thought. If the PRC decides to invade Taiwan surely they would not be able to hide their months-long preparations. The U.S. intelligence services would learn about it soon enough. As soon as upcoming invasion preparation is obvious, withdraw all the carriers to just outside bases like Bremerton and San Diego. Cycle ships in for replenishment. Put the Atlantic fleet to sea headed to the West Coast. Withdraw aircraft from Guam, Okinawa and bases in Japan. Put the USN and Air Force on war footing. No shots fired, no claims to defend Taiwan. Some of the speculative Taiwan war fiction and maybe war games has China undertaking “surprise” non-nuclear strikes on U.S. Bases in the Western Pacific and attacks on forward deployed U.S. Fleets. Moving assets out of harm's way removes that option. Dust off War Plan Orange. Announce a massive live fire war game of all USN Pacific assets “fighting their way” across the Pacific to the Philippine Sea to "practice" escorting war supplies to Taiwan. Close the ocean for 500 miles around the Fleet as it sails across the Pacific. With the invasion still weeks away, what does China do now? The USN is cocked and locked for dragons. Introducing a little uncertainty in an "enemy's" war plans might prove beneficial.
Recent articles on the progress of testing of Boeing's Orca would seem to suggest the Navy is paying attention to the role mining of The Strait could play as a deterrent and a huge punch to the jaw of The PLAN. As for the PLAN, any fight that they bring (outside of a blockade) requires an amphibious landing and air assault which means big... visible... cavernous... gators.
YES. I promised to lose weight in 2023 and 2024, yet here I sit as fat as I was then. Just like those of us who survived Y2K in spite of prognosticators, Taiwan and Region's 2027 will not differ much from 2026 or 2028, and discourse will move on to the next star alignment to worry over.
While Potential Adversaries must pace our investment strategy, should we bother to actually speak with Chinese and know them, we might learn NO relevant mainlander thinks a shooting war is worth a "crappy island filled with crappy people." (Their view & words--not mine). Yes, the PRC is a bully. Yes, they only respect force. And yes... the Regions of Mainland China despise each other as arrogant, with the Taiwanese "the worst of all." But like Kim Il Sung's promise to re-unify the Koran peninsula in his lifetime, some 30 years after he's gone we sit not much different than before. And that's where Taiwan and the Region will sit in 2028 and beyond given China's main problems are domestic and in the West where it is well-hidden relative to fire-hosing some Philippine Junk.
Yes and no but you do capture what a number of my Chinese friends feel. Taiwan is not worth going to war for so long as the status quo exists. Their sights are on more wealth and a better life, not pissing off the world just to piss off the world to just grab a "crappy island". Xi will have to explain to them how it gets them a better life first.
That phrase applies to every country at some point in its history. Point of view and the slippery use of words, as Ukraine well knows from giving up its nukes.
I'm staying in a drilling status through early 2028 for a reason other than it being over a year to get the twenty-year letter for retirement eligibility. In my opinion, the PRC is highly likely to start something in the next few years for the PLA centennial. Will they attempt a forceful reunification? I don't know. It is a possibility we should look out for. Given the open source trends, I doubt it will continue much past that.
Would it not be ironic if Russian puppet Trumps plan to stop the war in Ukraine it to threaten to back the PRCs claim on Siberia if Russia does not pull back to their 2014 boarders with Ukraine. The art of the deal.
We could only be so lucky. Given that he is a core leader, unless he is purged and memory holed, his successor will likely carry on his plans and goals.
For those that are interested: "The Political Thought of Xi Jingping." authors, Steve Tang and Olivia Cheung.
Referring to yesterday's letter, if 2027 is the "magic" year, we are in serious trouble. Patton is famously quoted "If everyone is thinking the same, someone isn't thinking." Based on experience, research, and sources it is apparent, at least to me, that too many on both the civil and military sides are engaged in mutual affirmation that the PLA, PLAN, and PLAAF will make their move in the 2030s. T
he consensus being either a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. However, the "nine-dash line does not just cover the Island and the South China Sea. Historical claims also encompass the border junction of the PRC, India, and Bhutan.
In fact, the Communists have encroached into Bhutan in at least three areas and have built settlements, infrastructure, and Communist governance. Xi could order the take over of the country, that is strategically close to India.
India has a history of territorial disputes with the PRC that have resulted in conflict. The disputed areas are both militarily significant and may contain mineral resources.
Despite the "no-limits" friendship, China has "Historical" claims in Russia's Far East, going back to the Qin Dynasty. There is some evidence that territorial differences between North Korea and Vietnam.
XI has plenty of opportunities to violate its agreements and international law through aggressive action.
The PRCs remit is to resolve all border disputes by 2049. They are already moving against India, Bhutan and Nepal. It will no doubt be a multi-domain fight but the land war in Asia is a harder, if not impossible fight for us to win and also an outside our area of expertise. Best focus on the air and naval areas of dominance and let our Indian allies focus on the land war. A silver lining is that if Xi moves against India first, it will force the Indians (who are currently fence sitting) into our camp and make Sea Control in the Indian Ocean a much more approachable problem set. Not to mention PRC sucked into a land war with a bordering country with a higher population and positive population growth will certainly be a manpower vacuum for them and may limit their ability to strike elsewhere.
China and India have made some steps toward resolving their differences over the Siachen glacier region. Narendra Modi has no wish to send troops to fight a war in the mountains (and the whole border area is mountains--the Himalayas--extending miles in both directions), nor does Xi: any serious fight would be a bloodbath and the border is not close to anything on either side worth seizing.
We may be saved a bit by delay due to the on-going PRC's economic meltdown and a rumored conflict between Xi and his Vice Chairman of the CMC over the military purges over the last year. But barring some miracle either the complete implosion of the Chinese economy or the removal of Xi Jinping by a coup d'etat, an invasion/blockade will only be delayed not canceled.
2027 may also be significant because it marks the 100 anniversary of the beginning of the war between the communists and nationalists which in the mind of the CCP may not be over until Taiwan is incorporated into the mainland. Just a thought.
2049 centenary goals (100 years of PRC) inform 2027 centenary goals. Resolving all territorial disputes is a 2049 centenary goal. Territorial gains do not "resolve" themselves overnight. They will have to start on that path well before 2049 and Xi has stated repeatedly that he will not leave the Taiwan question to the next generation. He is 71 and will not live forever. Xi has been made a "core leader" and wants to surpass Mao's achievement. What is one thing Mao failed to accomplish? Bringing Taiwan into unification with the mainland. Time grows short.
Possibly, Xi will be removed from power by a coup d'etat (rumors currently abound right now) or the ongoing economic meltdown in China will grow and permanently remove China's ability to project power. However, since the best thing that we can control is military preparation it is best to prepare as fast as we can.
I didn't know you could read Mandarin! I am impressed!
I don't
CDR, well founded advice. Read your adversaries public musings, for they are his, and will provide a level of information that can be compared to information gleaned about him via open source and "other" National Technical Means (NTM). CCP minutes are what he says. Watch what he actually does (NTM are critical for this), compare the two...and look at the national wealth (the "money"). GDP (measured by metrics NOT provided by the CCP "official" stats, things like shipping numbers, electric consumption, etc.), population demographic trends (population "wealth") industrial production of war use equipment and logistical support. Listen to what they say, watch what they do, and follow the money (wealth). Compare against our own "health" in the same or similar categories. Draw the lines on the chart of health vs time, note where the lines give the greatest advantage to the adversary, there's the window in general terms. BUT, don't underestimate the force multiplier of surprise. You have 2027 marked on the calendar and are planning accordingly? What will you do if things pop tonight? Next month? This spring? Let none of us forget, we sort of produced and innovated the Soviets into insolvency leading to their collapse (which our NTM failed to notice for quite a while after it happened IIRC) as they tried to keep up. Given our current DoD inability to acquire and produce military goods, are we the Soviets here? Also don't disregard Xi's age, health, and strong cultural influence and motivation to secure his "legacy". A complex and potentially world civilization threatening witch's brew to be sure. Note 2027 on the calendar, but don't be "surprised" if something (blockade, actual attack) happens sooner. Trust but verify, and double check the verification.
Pray for the best, but plan for the worst.
Indeed. However, plans without actions are...?
More than anything else, the US and its allies must be unified and resolute beyond this 2024 election. The world is counting on the US and its allies to carry the banners of law and order.
The alternative is frightening where human rights and lives are cheaper by the day.
Lusting after PRC's pseudo societal and economy advancements is huge mistake, especially for BRICS nations.
PRC promulgate and normalize lawlessness and abuse of human rights.
One of the legacies of the 'one child' policy is a disproportionate number of men to women. If left to itself, there are 105 boys born in a population for every 100 girls. A strict rule that if you deviate from that proportion, someone is putting a thumb on the scale. Selective infanticide, sex-selective abortions. China has about about five men for every four women.
The point of this, to go along with a modernized military, is that you have a bachelor herd. Personnel to fill the ranks of that modernized military. Or, in other words, cannon fodder to expend.
And as a reward these bachelor soldiers get their choice of the captured women. A modern version of the Rape of the Sabine Women.
IF (capital IF) those young men become unemployed, it becomes almost a CCP imperative to go to war to preserve the state from a bunch of young males without prospects. So, the unemployment numbers are an economic warning / indicator worth monitoring IF you can get data remotely close to accuracy.
One countervailing note (which may not be dispositive, but is influential): these are only sons of parents whom the state will not care for in their old age. Xi is only dictator for life, and when large numbers of these only sons return in body bags, some of these parents will be miffed...
Xi, from a party founded by Mao, who in his prime could kill humans in odd lots like no other person since Genghis Khan......do you think the powers that be really care?
As the father of an adopted, beautiful Chinese baby girl (now 28), I would say your last point is NOT something that I would shrug off easily as "hyperbole."
North or East, What treasures lie to the North vs what treasures lie to the East? Will the Bear be so injured/tired that a walk North will take minimal effort for maximal gains? Will going East damage what we have built to the point we can't capitalize on the gains? Will the wayward province join us if we just wait them out. Will the Japanese and the South Koreans just sit idly by if we go into Taiwan? There are a huge number of other questions entering the equation in Xi's mind. I also think he believes if he continues to stir the pot, the West will tear itself apart without any effort just by the grift.
The problem with saber rattling with China is the same as the peace dividend. What happens when your enemy leaves the field?
We don’t need a strong navy because of China. We need a strong US Navy because we are an island nation dependent on the free movement of global shipping. We are alone in a hostile world with nobody to rely upon but ourselves.
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum.
We really need to go back to Hamilton and his justifications for a navy and a country to support that navy.
Hamilton in 1791. “The want of a Navy to protect our external commerce, as long as it shall Continue, must render it a peculiarly precarious reliance, for the supply of essential articles, and must serve to strengthen prodigiously the arguments in favour of manufactures.”
You do need to acquaint yourself with the late Professor Harold Rood of McKenna-Claremont College. His fundamental concept was the US as an island nation surrounded by the Eurasian landmass.
Also the exigencies of war make it necessary to keep the Bill of Rights away from immediate proximity to the field of war. Hence the need to allies for the ability to fight a war over there on the ramparts.
We could only be so lucky as to have the PRC quit the field before the fight. It is not the 1990s anymore. Its well past time for people to stop acting like it is.
“The problem with saber rattling with China is the same as the peace dividend. What happens when your enemy leaves the field?”
EXACTLY!! Like back in the 80’s, things were going GREAT: 600-ship Navy, plenty of OPTAR funds, TOPGUN movie was out and making the airshow demo circuit in the F-14 living like a rock star, dusting off supersonic in full burner that pesky Soviet “trawler” irritating ‘Mother’…man…surely these days would never end…and then the dadgum Russians up and quit on us! Now what? And under Clinton, we saw what.
I posted this late once before and hardly anyone saw it. Assuming the PRC doesn't attack the USN for the heck of it, a counter intuitive thought. If the PRC decides to invade Taiwan surely they would not be able to hide their months-long preparations. The U.S. intelligence services would learn about it soon enough. As soon as upcoming invasion preparation is obvious, withdraw all the carriers to just outside bases like Bremerton and San Diego. Cycle ships in for replenishment. Put the Atlantic fleet to sea headed to the West Coast. Withdraw aircraft from Guam, Okinawa and bases in Japan. Put the USN and Air Force on war footing. No shots fired, no claims to defend Taiwan. Some of the speculative Taiwan war fiction and maybe war games has China undertaking “surprise” non-nuclear strikes on U.S. Bases in the Western Pacific and attacks on forward deployed U.S. Fleets. Moving assets out of harm's way removes that option. Dust off War Plan Orange. Announce a massive live fire war game of all USN Pacific assets “fighting their way” across the Pacific to the Philippine Sea to "practice" escorting war supplies to Taiwan. Close the ocean for 500 miles around the Fleet as it sails across the Pacific. With the invasion still weeks away, what does China do now? The USN is cocked and locked for dragons. Introducing a little uncertainty in an "enemy's" war plans might prove beneficial.
Would not be the first thing we've missed although we seem to have a decent recent track record. At least since the fall of Afghanistan?
Recent articles on the progress of testing of Boeing's Orca would seem to suggest the Navy is paying attention to the role mining of The Strait could play as a deterrent and a huge punch to the jaw of The PLAN. As for the PLAN, any fight that they bring (outside of a blockade) requires an amphibious landing and air assault which means big... visible... cavernous... gators.
YES. I promised to lose weight in 2023 and 2024, yet here I sit as fat as I was then. Just like those of us who survived Y2K in spite of prognosticators, Taiwan and Region's 2027 will not differ much from 2026 or 2028, and discourse will move on to the next star alignment to worry over.
While Potential Adversaries must pace our investment strategy, should we bother to actually speak with Chinese and know them, we might learn NO relevant mainlander thinks a shooting war is worth a "crappy island filled with crappy people." (Their view & words--not mine). Yes, the PRC is a bully. Yes, they only respect force. And yes... the Regions of Mainland China despise each other as arrogant, with the Taiwanese "the worst of all." But like Kim Il Sung's promise to re-unify the Koran peninsula in his lifetime, some 30 years after he's gone we sit not much different than before. And that's where Taiwan and the Region will sit in 2028 and beyond given China's main problems are domestic and in the West where it is well-hidden relative to fire-hosing some Philippine Junk.
Yes and no but you do capture what a number of my Chinese friends feel. Taiwan is not worth going to war for so long as the status quo exists. Their sights are on more wealth and a better life, not pissing off the world just to piss off the world to just grab a "crappy island". Xi will have to explain to them how it gets them a better life first.
Your Chinese "friends" may be playing you.
Everyone is a potential adversary. Ever hear the phrase “perfidious Albion?”
That phrase applies to every country at some point in its history. Point of view and the slippery use of words, as Ukraine well knows from giving up its nukes.
We cannot ignore the Chinese, but, we should not chase China down the communist rat hole. Communism is a dead end. At the end, everyone is dead.
At this point except for our Reservist we're just along for the ride.
I'm staying in a drilling status through early 2028 for a reason other than it being over a year to get the twenty-year letter for retirement eligibility. In my opinion, the PRC is highly likely to start something in the next few years for the PLA centennial. Will they attempt a forceful reunification? I don't know. It is a possibility we should look out for. Given the open source trends, I doubt it will continue much past that.
Just think, you'll make Master Chief! Maybe even O-3e!
I'm up for the first look at Senior Chief in '26, maybe I'll put in a Warrant Package one last time.
I'd rather be an W-5!
Would it not be ironic if Russian puppet Trumps plan to stop the war in Ukraine it to threaten to back the PRCs claim on Siberia if Russia does not pull back to their 2014 boarders with Ukraine. The art of the deal.
"Russian puppet Trumps"
Delete your account.
"...Russian puppet Trump..." Suggest you go over to the comment section of The War Zone where you will be warmly embraced.
I hope this is their dove moment. My mind pushes me to macims like to be early is on time and to be on time is to be late.
Xi is 71. What happens if he keels over from a random medical happening in the next year or so?
We could only be so lucky. Given that he is a core leader, unless he is purged and memory holed, his successor will likely carry on his plans and goals.
For those that are interested: "The Political Thought of Xi Jingping." authors, Steve Tang and Olivia Cheung.
Referring to yesterday's letter, if 2027 is the "magic" year, we are in serious trouble. Patton is famously quoted "If everyone is thinking the same, someone isn't thinking." Based on experience, research, and sources it is apparent, at least to me, that too many on both the civil and military sides are engaged in mutual affirmation that the PLA, PLAN, and PLAAF will make their move in the 2030s. T
he consensus being either a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. However, the "nine-dash line does not just cover the Island and the South China Sea. Historical claims also encompass the border junction of the PRC, India, and Bhutan.
In fact, the Communists have encroached into Bhutan in at least three areas and have built settlements, infrastructure, and Communist governance. Xi could order the take over of the country, that is strategically close to India.
India has a history of territorial disputes with the PRC that have resulted in conflict. The disputed areas are both militarily significant and may contain mineral resources.
Despite the "no-limits" friendship, China has "Historical" claims in Russia's Far East, going back to the Qin Dynasty. There is some evidence that territorial differences between North Korea and Vietnam.
XI has plenty of opportunities to violate its agreements and international law through aggressive action.
The PRCs remit is to resolve all border disputes by 2049. They are already moving against India, Bhutan and Nepal. It will no doubt be a multi-domain fight but the land war in Asia is a harder, if not impossible fight for us to win and also an outside our area of expertise. Best focus on the air and naval areas of dominance and let our Indian allies focus on the land war. A silver lining is that if Xi moves against India first, it will force the Indians (who are currently fence sitting) into our camp and make Sea Control in the Indian Ocean a much more approachable problem set. Not to mention PRC sucked into a land war with a bordering country with a higher population and positive population growth will certainly be a manpower vacuum for them and may limit their ability to strike elsewhere.
China and India have made some steps toward resolving their differences over the Siachen glacier region. Narendra Modi has no wish to send troops to fight a war in the mountains (and the whole border area is mountains--the Himalayas--extending miles in both directions), nor does Xi: any serious fight would be a bloodbath and the border is not close to anything on either side worth seizing.
We may be saved a bit by delay due to the on-going PRC's economic meltdown and a rumored conflict between Xi and his Vice Chairman of the CMC over the military purges over the last year. But barring some miracle either the complete implosion of the Chinese economy or the removal of Xi Jinping by a coup d'etat, an invasion/blockade will only be delayed not canceled.