Why does 2027 Keep Coming up About the Chinese Military?

The CCP Has Thoughts

First of all, yes, it is election day. I’ve already voted. If you are an American citizen, and you have not voted already, stop reading CDRSalamander and go vote. I’ll be right here.

Too many people have given everything a mortal soul can, just so you can vote. Across the planet, people do not even have a shadow of the freedoms we have here.

Go vote.

If you are here, then like me, you are probably done with election talk, one way or another—let’s have a distraction.

So, for my non-American readers in the 90+ nations subscribers to this Substack hail from—and for those Americans who have done their civic duty—let’s look at what the next American administration will have to deal with.

From the Davidson Window to other prognostications, the window of greatest possibility for war with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is generally seen as opening in 2027.

Let’s look at that date not from an American point of view. Enough has been written about that. What hasn’t been discussed enough is the date’s significance for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

I have not been able to read an English translation of The Thoughts of Xi Jinping, and the Mandarin version of the “mind map” of Xi Jinping Thought is scary enough I don’t want to see the English version (actually, I do).

Like all communist publications, it operates on an entirely different spectrum and is cringy to read. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t. Commies like to reference the Boss’s direction and guidance, so let’s give it a shot.

As Xi’s thought is out there, all publications by the CCP will reflect it. What can we find out about the year 2027? Let’s look to the Communique of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted on July 18, 2024.

This line catches the eye,

It was stated that modernizing national defense and the armed forces is an integral part of Chinese modernization. We must maintain the Party's absolute leadership over the people's armed forces and fully implement the strategy of strengthening the military through reform to provide a strong guarantee for realizing the centenary goal of the People's Liberation Army in 2027 and achieving basic modernization of national defense and the armed forces. We will improve the systems and mechanisms for leading and managing the people's armed forces, further reform joint operations systems, and deepen military-civilian reforms.

OK. Dates and anniversaries are important. 2027 will mark the big 100 for the PLA. They have specific goals for that red-letter day (no pun intended). It begs the question, “What are the centenary goals of the People's Liberation Army in 2027?”

I will admit, that reads like something from an Erhard Seminars Training, but even if it is Commie EST, it should give pause.

Yes, the demographics of 2027. Yes, the passing intersection of military and economic power ~2027. Yes, yes to all the other lights that are blinking yellow to red later this decade from the South China Sea to the Arctic.

Yes, I understand … if you’ve been reading me for long and listening to Midrats or UNCLAS Read Board, you know I’m one of those pointing at them. But, should we take a pause to ponder?

Are we reading too much into this? Is this just a drive to modernize the … well … commie-addled PLA/PLAN/PLARF from a parade and show military in to a truly global military Xi would like to have?

One has to wonder if they’ll reach the very human, well-worn path of, 'Well, we’ve built this great military; what are we going to do with it?' trap…but perhaps that’s beyond the 2027 timeline?

Let’s hope that 2027 is just a commie-EST planning date. That would buy us more time as, let’s be clear on this, we are not ready for war west of the International Date Line in 2027.

So, here’s our quasi-China dove moment of the decade. Don’t get used to it; I just find it helpful to challenge basic assumptions now and then.