What the amateur statesmen on these islands seem to forget is that in the event of a war, we (the west) either use them, or deny them to the enemy.
That denying them to the enemy will not turn out well for the islands and islanders, at all. It will not be like the WWII Pacific war, slogging up the island chains towards Tokyo: We don't have time for that. The islands will be neutralized, in the most efficient way possible.
The US is not, unfortunately, always the best friend to have. We are the best friend to have in a fight, however. And the CCP is not a friend at all: Even when they 'invest' in a country, they bring in their own people to run everything important, and care for the locals just slightly less than they care for their own forces.
All wars include collateral damage. In the next war, the amount of collateral damage your country receives will be in proportion to the importance of the PRC assets in your country.
I disagree. East Palestine is part of Appalachia. The perfumed princelings of government do not care about hillrods. That is different from painting the entire country as uncaring.
Its always been U.S. to help rebuild a countries infrastructure after its been leveled. There's a movie that has a small very poor nation that decides to declare war on the U S.A. knowing it will be destroyed and after losing it will be rebuilt anew. Only problem is that they are winning the war!! Funny movie can't remember it's name though.
I have to point out that US policy in foreign development is exactly the same: have American consultants (the infamous beltway bandits) run every program for USAID, pay them well and largely tax-free, buy American equipment (if equipment is involved), and pay locals marginal salaries. Those running these programs very very rarely have bothered to learn the local language and the way local hires are treated is pretty poor.
Don't know with what authority you speak about USAID policies, but in Ukraine ALL the chiefs of party on USAID projects always were—and still are—Americans. Their deputies might be local (at a fraction of the salary), but not the top boss. In other words, the bulk of American aid money goes back to the US. It does not stay in the designated country.
One of my memories of VietNam is searching a base camp in the Western mountains of RVN and finding large cans bearing the insignia/logo of USAID. Good to know the bulk of the money spent on those cans went back to the US. I am sure things have changed since then.
"Dr Nedopil Wang believes the Pacific's debt situation has been partly driven by China's naivety about the risks of lending.
He said the question now was whether China would use more innovative ways to reduce debt."
ROTFLMAO: Oh, yeah, sure, the People's Republic did this because they didn't know that lending was risky. (Damn, I knew I couldn't say that with a strait face. Sorry let me quit laughing.)
No this is the international version of the mob as loan sharks.
<In a bad Italian American accent> "Oh, by da way, your vig is due. Ya know we could forgive dis vig, this month, in return for a share of your company, and doing some favors for us."
(Next month) "Oh by da way, your vig is due again, let us put a base of operations in your back room, and we'll forgive this month's vig."
(Next month) "Look, we own you bitch. Do what we say, or you sleep wid da fishes, capuche?"
"the People's Republic did this because they didn't know that lending was risky."
When you play with other people's money risk isn't always a primary or even significant concern. And politicians of every nation and ideology are playing with other people's money. See also Lehman Bros., Merrill Lynch, etc.
Which is the idea of China to begin with. China will restructure a loan over and over until its unattainable and bang another Chinese Deep water port or Airport etc etc.
You'll still have an airport, just with some added features, like the dozens of hardened aircraft shelters and munition bunkers guarded by Chinese troops on the land that you donated to the PRC in exchange for debt relief.
Wait, no environmental protection or renewable energy (LOL)
"Under debt swaps, creditors forgive part of the debt owed in exchange for investments that have a positive outcome, such as environmental protection or renewable energy."
Speaking of nations which gullibly borrow relatively large amounts of money from China, and then find it hard to pay them back, or even pay the interest. . .
How much does the U.S. owe China now?
China did not sneak in and sucker us into borrowing money from them, but we went begging for loans from them to cover our spending addictions.
Our government, run by elected politicians, thinks in terms of no more than two to four years. China thinks and acts in terms of decades or even centuries, with a "whole of government"coordination, not thousands of petty entities with their own rice bowls and commitment to spend all they got to justify spending more next year. That is the difference between an emerging global power and a nation imploding after embracing "free stuff" rather than Free trade, and dependency rather than personal responsibility.
Unusually, the Commander has got something dead wrong. Or at least substantially wrong. The vast majority of "associates" at US military think tanks serve on zero cost contracts, and are anything but over paid. Most of the rest get paid $1,000 for a paper (defined as less than 20 pages long), or $1,500 for a book (defined as 20 pages or more). These typically take hundreds (if not thousands) of hours of work to create. One reason is rules about Federal checks. Another (my case) was concern about losing Medicaid if I was paid too much. [I ultimately lost it anyway because my Social Security in 2023 was $1,000 higher than allowed]. The vast majority serve because they think it matters, not because they get paid to do it. Actual patriots.
Wow! I did not know these numbers. By comparison, your $80/yr for Substack is the best bargain in town. Certainly, inside the Washington, DC money swamp.
I imagine those are "total cost of employing them" (includes think tank contribution to their health insurance and retirement) not take-home pay, but still a tidy sum.
These think tanks are little more than places for members of the uniparty to be trained, take a break between government positions and have a retirement to look forward to so long as they toed the party line. They might even produce an article or two. What else do you do with your Ph.D. in political science from Brown or Bard?
I meant Medicaid. There are income limits above which one is not qualified. The details vary state to state. My strategy worked from 2015 (when I began to work for a USAF think tank called CASI) until this year - when I lost Medicaid because Social Security income by itself exceeds the limit allowed to get Medicaid under state law. However, VA compensation cut in last June, and doubled in February. At 70% disabled I have no copays or any other fees for the rest of my life.
Excellent analysis. The PRC is seeing much of the lending under its belt and roads initiative run into debt collection issues. Not just in the Pacific but also in Africa. The PRC made those loans on exactly the same basis as Californiaʻs high speed rail fiasco -- build it and it will pay off. Their ROI in many cases is about that of Governor Newsomeʻs railroad toy. That doesnʻt mean that debt slavery is something we can ignore, but the PRC does have a problem.
Personally, I cannot recall ever seeing a Chinese restaurant go out of business. The business acumen of the Chinese is legendary. Ask around in the Third World. Observe it here...you ever see a Chinese couple driving around in something less than a Mercedes? It would be stupid to assume the PRC is stupid. Making pay day loans to the Third World and having a goon squad repo team to do your bidding looks like a very pragmatic strategy.
Communism is the Achilles Heel of China. Much of the progress in the past two decades was in China's adopting market-facing policies. In the past two years, Xi has been purging the western educated, market-orientated, officials and replacing them with doctrinaire communists.
there are three problems with Communism. First, Communists, like their Mercantilist brothers in the Trump party, hold the belief that a government functionary can out-plan a free market. Secondly, Communism cannot harness what Keynes called "animal spirits;" how people's emotions and psychology influence their behavior and financial decisions. Rules and regulations, no matter how well thought out, cannot override hunches and feelings. Lastly, the inability of people to hold onto private property deprives a communist society of the entrepreneur. Without private property, and private profit, nobody is going to take the financial risks in the hope of profit. If there is no reward, nobody takes a risk.
China became our economic rival when she embraced free markets and turned away from the communist planned economy. She will not be able to compete now that she has turned in the direction of more soviets, and less entrepreneurs. It will take time, but what the US needs is to simply stay the course. We will beat China on the docks, not the battlefield.
England, to her detriment, never listened to John. If they had, Germany would not have been saddled with ruinous debt and forced to WWII. ( Among other ideas.)
Keynes literally saved the British government at the beginning of WWI. He was a superhero who came from Oxford to stop a horrible decision which would have collapsed the pound.
Keynes was appointed financial representative for the Treasury to the 1919 Versailles peace conference. That’s where his plea to avoid Germany’s financial ruin was ignored.
Good point, Ming. I was 1 year old in 1949 and didn't know how to pay attention then as my focus was on my next meal. Maybe because Warlord Mao Tse-tung had a better army than Warlord Chiang Kai-shek. And Doctrinaire Communism can preach a loftier sermon than Rapacious Capitalism can most of the time. Unless the Preacher is Milton Friedman. Maybe Commies are just better at snagging serfs, peasants and the weak-minded than Texans are a bulldogging stray cattle.
Mao had a better Army, more true believers and was less corrupt than Chiang Kai-shek and his regime. Barbara Tuchman and General Stilwell wrote of the KMT corruption and brutality of how Chaing treated his troops.
From what I have read, Mao and his army were more active, less corrupt, more professional and successful than Chiang fighting the Japanese in WWII. Mao and his lot were more "of the people". Similarly, the Hukbalahup in the Philippines. They were communists and a very active guerilla force against the Japanese occupiers. In Vietnam, Vichy France and Bao Dai's people collaborated with Japan in the occupation, while Ho's Viet Mihn opposed them. In Europe, the underground fighting the Axis were mostly socialist. Probably about as Marxist leaning as Antifa is today pushing back at some imagined Nazism. I think at the end of WWII people were feeling fine to side with the folks who had been seen to be the hardest working people in throwing out the Japanese. And you are right about Chiang and the KMT. No amount of lipstick we tried to put on those pigs could make them kissable to the Chinese people. However, it worked on this kid in grammar school in the 50s and on the U.S. public, too. Stillwell got blamed for losing China. But it was Chiang, and us for backing the wrong horse.
Excellent points. Stilwell did not get the credit or respect that was due him, though he was made a four star General. Barbara Tuchman's biography of Stilwell was an excellent read. Stilwell made many sacrifices for America, especially in the CBI Theater. People speak of the Korean War as the Forgotten War, but I think the CBI Theater should have that title.
Mao was smarter than Chiang. Mao let Chiang bleed himself dry doing most of the fighting against the Japanese. Until the U.S. entered the war we were limited in the munitions we could (officially) give to China. I wonder what the alternative future would have been had we backed Mao vs Chiang?
I would say the losing horse rather than the wrong horse. I consider Chiang to be the lesser of two evils, and that is about the best we can do in this world. Look next door; Syngman Rhee was certainly no angel, but better him than Kim Il Sung. Compare the results .
I could have phrased it better. For us Chiang was obviously the better choice. I meant to imply that for the Chinese Mao seemed the better choice to back, which as it turned out is what they did, to the degree that Chiang was chased away to Formosa.
Disagree. Chiang was at least as effective at fighting the Japanese as Mao. What the KMT could do was limited due to the lack of supply routes for lend-lease to reach them.
Worth noting that the "corrupt and ineffective" KMT had the Communists on the ropes - taking the offensive into north China - until the US pulled the plug on him.
Agree that Chiang's army had Mao on the ropes- Mao and his troops were forced into the Long March into Northern China. Our strategic focus was always on defeating Germany. Helping China fight the Japanese was helpful to us, but not our primary concern. Mao's strength, support of the Chinese people and martial professionalism continue to grow, Chiang's continued to decline. Chiang was happy to take our aid, but he refused to listen to Stilwell and other professionals on how to fight the Japanese. We did train some Chinese Nationalist troops up to a professional fighting level, but the numbers were too small to make a difference.
Our war with Japan officially ended on 2Sept45 with Japan's surrender. Chiang had caused his own demise and our withdrawing of support to him. Chiang wanted to be treated on the same level as France, the USSR and England- that was never going to happen.
The Communists had the support of the Chinese people, Chiang did not. The civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the KMT was the beginning of the end. WWII had ended and we had other issues to deal with- more involvement in China's civil war was not one of them. We continued to help Chiang up until the Fall of 1946 by which time the Civil War would determine who would control mainland China. Obviously the winner was the CCP and Chiang/KMT ended up moving to Taiwan in 1949.
"Chiang was corrupt" was invented to excuse the Democrats throwing the KMT under the bus. And we have abundant examples of communist armies treating their troops brutally, so that wasn't it.
" The business acumen of the Chinese is legendary."
As are the sources of the restaurants' menu items.
Had a local Chinese restaurant go out of business last year. Very authentic cuisine, which means inedible to even those westerners who thrive on head cheese, mountain oysters, and scrapple. The old joke about using every part of the pig but the squeal is not a joke in China. I do not even want to think of what Chinese sausage is made of.
Been to Hong Kong many times. So many good eats there. Eyeballed "Very authentic (Chinese) cuisine" offered by street vendors and down by the Wanchai waterfront. What I saw in pots, fry pans and on plates predated John Carpenter's The Thing (1982). And as much as I love Korean food, even some of the bul-go-gi side dishes, here and abroad, are scary. But I tried those and like them all, just have to close my eyes and bear the occasional fork tine stabbing to my upper and lower lip. But that authentic Chinese food back during my R&R days? Nope then. Nope now. A tip: Never eat any KFC in Bangkok or a sub sandwich at Fleet Landing in Naples. (ps-s-s-st! They don't scrape away all the cat fur. Most intense dry heaves I have ever experienced.)
Thanks for the tip, but I have already decided my traveling days are over, for several reasons. The upside of all this mass immigration is that now those exotic and tasty foods come to us, so I don't have to travel. I did have egg foo young from a street vendor in Taipei once, and chicken(?) noodle soup from a street vendor in a village, and various other foodstuffs, in RVN . Enjoyed them immensely.
I have always had the best of luck with street food world-wide. My traveling days are pretty much over too. I won't fly and get rump-weary driving and all those pit stops and me going 5mph under the limit for safety make it slow travel. And yeah, all that mass immigration. Who wants to come home to find 23 squatters who'll take 6-12 months to evict, or to an empty house that has been looted?
The US used this type of business with developing nations back in the 60's and 70's. Building infrastructure that never could be paid for or maintained to get the country into the US government's debt. "You owe us, now do what we say", type of diplomacy.
In 1984, China exhibited artwork at the World's Fair in Knoxville TN.
The exhibits included a bamboo chest with thousands of coats of lacquer that was then carved in deep relief. A sailing ship with hundreds of tiny human figures on its decks, carved from a single elephant tusk. An ivory mountain wreathed in diaphanous smoke with hundreds of tiny climbers, topped with a sphere. Within the sphere, another sphere, free to rotate. Within that, another... twenty-four concentric spheres, carved from the outside, over a span of three generations.
I realized then that they take the long view. A culture that spans three thousand years has a planning horizon of decades, not months.
Our strategists should be spending more time with Ian Toll’s Pacific Crucible and Alfred Thayer Mahan, and less time with White Guilt, lest we all be spending full time learning Mandarin down the road in the CCP language immersion course.
Not too worried here, Eric. The curriculum won't need to go beyond some basic commands and some pidgin Mandarin. When I was stationed in Japan I got by just fine in mastering Japanese taxi language: "Hidari, Migi, SUTOPPU!!!". "Statsu Kirin, Jodai" was handy too. Had 3 years of Latin in high school, so a Mandarin immersion course ought to be a breeze. I need to read Ian Toll's trilogy.
Hai. Time in homeport (Yokosuka) was short. Mostly, I'd tender a ¥5000 or ¥10000 note and just accept whatever change I got back. Even in the gutter district Japanese are honest. I was single, 21, an RD1, getting ProPay, hostile fire pay, tax-free and still had a wad of VRB handy. They called me "Okane-san". It was the best of times...
I spent a year flying the H46 Marlog out of Atsugi. Yokosuka was a twice per day stop. Maybe gave you a ride, 1970 - 71. Hardy Barracks, Fuji base camp, Yokohama, Kiserazu, etc. etc.
Maybe we stumbled into each in Yokosuka. I did a lot of stumbling around outside the main gate. Got a familiarization flight in an SH-3 as part of ASAC school in 1968. Terrifying experience. I was standing behind the Aviator-in-Charge (because we don't call them "pilots") observing him going through an automated "dip cycle". He flicked the switch, went hands-free and we both watched the helo descend toward the icy water of Chesapeake Bay. And we descended and then descended some more until the guy flying the deathtrap said, "Oops!" and went hands on and yanked us skyward just feet from crashing. They called it day and headed back. Once seated, I noticed something in my peripheral vision. It was an arterial spray of something blood-like from the engine or transmission over head. I told the Aircrewman. He said, "Oh that?" and pointed at a stack of transmission fluid (or whatever) on the deck, "We got plenty to top it off if we need too. Don't worry." My fingerprints are probably still embedded in that seat frame. Next time in SH-3's was dozens of time between 1977-80 in Hawaii getting winched up & down, to and from DD's and FF's. Dozens of terrifying experiences. Had a standing offer from the Lamps Det OIC for a ride-along during our 1991 deployment. I was so-o-o happy to be finally in a position to politely decline a helo ride. Helo rides are terrifying. So are cat shots. I haven't flown since 1986 and never will again. Haven't even mentioned the flip-side of that cat shot when the C-2 took off from Cubi, the engines lost power and we coasted back to Cubi. That time, the Aircrewman was trying to open the door and jump out without a parachute. If he was that scared, I was, by God, 10 times as frightened. I'll take a ride on 40 year old Tilt-A-Whirl with missing bolts at a B-grade carnival after downing 3 chimichangas and a half gallon of warm root beer rather than ever fly again. Happy to be a Surface guy.
Dale, put another Cheated Death Again sticker by your name. The hydraulic system is 3,000 lbs of boost because it takes that to move the controls in an H3. When it goes empty, you die. There’s no more immediate emergency in a helo than hydraulic failure.
NOW they are. Back when I was younger and stupider I used to step out on the skid of Huey, holding on with one hand, and sidestep forward until I could wave at the pilot/copilot from right outside his window. They were not pleased. Now I can't even climb a ladder without my sphincter welding itself shut. I don't know if that shows that I am smarter, but I think it shows that I am (marginally) less stupid.
China loans money to small nations with terms that evolve into China's control of the policy decisions made by those small nations - via subsequent Chinese offers to them that they "cannot refuse." I would recommend a book to those with interests in that direction: The Imperial Cruise, by the man who also wrote Flags of Our Fathers, as well as Fly Boys.
Another book (so many recommended it to me that I bought it) is Judgement in Moscow (by Vladimir Bukovsky, finally (with minor revision and released in an English language version). As Imperial Cruise reaches back to Theodore Roosevelt's ill-advised personal foreign policy actions in the Pacific area, when he was POTUS, the Bukovsky book is a monumental archival effort that organizes information on USSR and Russian activities made available (with some effort) with fall of the Berlin wall. China's more recent history - the background of which can be secured by reading the book of Stillwell in China - supplies a useful context for Salamander's on-going comments about China and the Bukovsky book provides a third leg to this milkmaid's stool of the USA vis-a-vis international communist attacks on us in present day.
I notice in that Australian Broadcasting Company story that Djibouti is #2 on the CCP debtor list with 4.1% of it's GDP. It's almost like they teach geography in China along with mathematics.
Next, please write about China in Africa. More than a million Chinese settlers and massive debt on infrastructure projects (Angola owes $19 billion). At some point, Africans will be forced to fight second wars of independence. At some point, China will bite off more than it can chew and a collapse will follow.
“How much land in Africa does China own?
The total area of Africa is approximately 1.2 billion acres, of which 71% is covered by land and 29% is covered by water. The total area of land that China owns in Africa is approximately 186,000 square miles (465,000 square kilometers). This is around 7% of the total land area in Africa.”
The Africans have more machetes than the Chinese have settlers. The rule of law there is weak to start with. Whenever race has been added, blood runs freely there
I know about the machetes. I spent most of my adult life in Africa. There will come a breaking point. Africans are patient sufferers, but there always comes a breaking point.
All played out before in book, film and real life, SGT. Something of Value, Robert Ruark, Mau Mau's. The panga play got smoothed to a fine edge in Rwanda some 35 years later. You don't even have to be good with a machete to achieve political change. Have one in hand and scowl. 1952-60/1994...too early to predict a cycle, but 2032-ish might be a bad Chinese New Year.
What? The CCP is not benevolent? Say it ain't so!
What the amateur statesmen on these islands seem to forget is that in the event of a war, we (the west) either use them, or deny them to the enemy.
That denying them to the enemy will not turn out well for the islands and islanders, at all. It will not be like the WWII Pacific war, slogging up the island chains towards Tokyo: We don't have time for that. The islands will be neutralized, in the most efficient way possible.
The US is not, unfortunately, always the best friend to have. We are the best friend to have in a fight, however. And the CCP is not a friend at all: Even when they 'invest' in a country, they bring in their own people to run everything important, and care for the locals just slightly less than they care for their own forces.
All wars include collateral damage. In the next war, the amount of collateral damage your country receives will be in proportion to the importance of the PRC assets in your country.
Indeed. And the islanders have much more to lose these days than they did in 1943. Who will be more attentive to those concerns? The USA or the CCP?
The USA doesn't even care about East Palestine, Ohio.
I disagree. East Palestine is part of Appalachia. The perfumed princelings of government do not care about hillrods. That is different from painting the entire country as uncaring.
I stand corrected. I should have said the elites do not care.
Its always been U.S. to help rebuild a countries infrastructure after its been leveled. There's a movie that has a small very poor nation that decides to declare war on the U S.A. knowing it will be destroyed and after losing it will be rebuilt anew. Only problem is that they are winning the war!! Funny movie can't remember it's name though.
The Mouse that Roared?
Yep!! Thanks.
I have to point out that US policy in foreign development is exactly the same: have American consultants (the infamous beltway bandits) run every program for USAID, pay them well and largely tax-free, buy American equipment (if equipment is involved), and pay locals marginal salaries. Those running these programs very very rarely have bothered to learn the local language and the way local hires are treated is pretty poor.
Not quite right: We pay locals to administer the local programs, they steal most of the money and pay the actual workers poorly.
In short, we fund graft and corruption.
Now, I'm perfectly satisfied by saying no more foreign aid for any country: Are you?
Don't know with what authority you speak about USAID policies, but in Ukraine ALL the chiefs of party on USAID projects always were—and still are—Americans. Their deputies might be local (at a fraction of the salary), but not the top boss. In other words, the bulk of American aid money goes back to the US. It does not stay in the designated country.
One of my memories of VietNam is searching a base camp in the Western mountains of RVN and finding large cans bearing the insignia/logo of USAID. Good to know the bulk of the money spent on those cans went back to the US. I am sure things have changed since then.
"Dr Nedopil Wang believes the Pacific's debt situation has been partly driven by China's naivety about the risks of lending.
He said the question now was whether China would use more innovative ways to reduce debt."
ROTFLMAO: Oh, yeah, sure, the People's Republic did this because they didn't know that lending was risky. (Damn, I knew I couldn't say that with a strait face. Sorry let me quit laughing.)
No this is the international version of the mob as loan sharks.
<In a bad Italian American accent> "Oh, by da way, your vig is due. Ya know we could forgive dis vig, this month, in return for a share of your company, and doing some favors for us."
(Next month) "Oh by da way, your vig is due again, let us put a base of operations in your back room, and we'll forgive this month's vig."
(Next month) "Look, we own you bitch. Do what we say, or you sleep wid da fishes, capuche?"
Exactly.
"the People's Republic did this because they didn't know that lending was risky."
When you play with other people's money risk isn't always a primary or even significant concern. And politicians of every nation and ideology are playing with other people's money. See also Lehman Bros., Merrill Lynch, etc.
Just so. See also: Peru and Panama.
It's been said before but:
Poor country: When we meet with the Chinese, we get an Airport. When we meet with the US State Dept., we get a Lecture.
But we also get a high interest, non-forgivable loan with the airport that becomes Chinese property upon default.
But the current leader gets a kick-back, jobs for his friends, a ribbon cutting and the loan payments are due 10 years later after he is gone.
Just like our Pols and our deficit
Which is the idea of China to begin with. China will restructure a loan over and over until its unattainable and bang another Chinese Deep water port or Airport etc etc.
You'll still have an airport, just with some added features, like the dozens of hardened aircraft shelters and munition bunkers guarded by Chinese troops on the land that you donated to the PRC in exchange for debt relief.
I can’t wait until they overreach. And they will, because their hubris knows no boundaries.
Wait, no environmental protection or renewable energy (LOL)
"Under debt swaps, creditors forgive part of the debt owed in exchange for investments that have a positive outcome, such as environmental protection or renewable energy."
You seem to forget, it's the State Department's job to make things worse.
Speaking of nations which gullibly borrow relatively large amounts of money from China, and then find it hard to pay them back, or even pay the interest. . .
How much does the U.S. owe China now?
China did not sneak in and sucker us into borrowing money from them, but we went begging for loans from them to cover our spending addictions.
Our government, run by elected politicians, thinks in terms of no more than two to four years. China thinks and acts in terms of decades or even centuries, with a "whole of government"coordination, not thousands of petty entities with their own rice bowls and commitment to spend all they got to justify spending more next year. That is the difference between an emerging global power and a nation imploding after embracing "free stuff" rather than Free trade, and dependency rather than personal responsibility.
I wish to add only this nugget of paraphrased wisdom from a long-dead rich guy, which should round out the conversation:
"If you owe the bank $100 you have a problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, the bank has a problem."
"If you owe the bank $35 trillion, everyone has a problem."
Unusually, the Commander has got something dead wrong. Or at least substantially wrong. The vast majority of "associates" at US military think tanks serve on zero cost contracts, and are anything but over paid. Most of the rest get paid $1,000 for a paper (defined as less than 20 pages long), or $1,500 for a book (defined as 20 pages or more). These typically take hundreds (if not thousands) of hours of work to create. One reason is rules about Federal checks. Another (my case) was concern about losing Medicaid if I was paid too much. [I ultimately lost it anyway because my Social Security in 2023 was $1,000 higher than allowed]. The vast majority serve because they think it matters, not because they get paid to do it. Actual patriots.
- 2019, the then-president of Brookings, John R. Allen, had a reported total compensation of approximately $998,687.
- Richard Haass, who served as president of CFR for 20 years, earned approximately $1.4 million annually.
- In 2021, Richard Fontaine, the head of CNAS received $518,125 in compensation. Paul Scharre, Program Director and Senior Fellow received $260,609
Next slide.
Wow! I did not know these numbers. By comparison, your $80/yr for Substack is the best bargain in town. Certainly, inside the Washington, DC money swamp.
The Deep State builds a nice farm team and has a great retirement plan as long as you toe the line.
I will bet they definitely lost their Medicare.
I imagine those are "total cost of employing them" (includes think tank contribution to their health insurance and retirement) not take-home pay, but still a tidy sum.
These think tanks are little more than places for members of the uniparty to be trained, take a break between government positions and have a retirement to look forward to so long as they toed the party line. They might even produce an article or two. What else do you do with your Ph.D. in political science from Brown or Bard?
"concern about losing Medicaid if I was paid too much"
I assume you meant "Medicare"?
I meant Medicaid. There are income limits above which one is not qualified. The details vary state to state. My strategy worked from 2015 (when I began to work for a USAF think tank called CASI) until this year - when I lost Medicaid because Social Security income by itself exceeds the limit allowed to get Medicaid under state law. However, VA compensation cut in last June, and doubled in February. At 70% disabled I have no copays or any other fees for the rest of my life.
Excellent analysis. The PRC is seeing much of the lending under its belt and roads initiative run into debt collection issues. Not just in the Pacific but also in Africa. The PRC made those loans on exactly the same basis as Californiaʻs high speed rail fiasco -- build it and it will pay off. Their ROI in many cases is about that of Governor Newsomeʻs railroad toy. That doesnʻt mean that debt slavery is something we can ignore, but the PRC does have a problem.
Personally, I cannot recall ever seeing a Chinese restaurant go out of business. The business acumen of the Chinese is legendary. Ask around in the Third World. Observe it here...you ever see a Chinese couple driving around in something less than a Mercedes? It would be stupid to assume the PRC is stupid. Making pay day loans to the Third World and having a goon squad repo team to do your bidding looks like a very pragmatic strategy.
(edited for spelling)
"The business acumen of the Chinese is legendary" - Does make ya wonder why they went for the communism thing in 1949...
Communism is the Achilles Heel of China. Much of the progress in the past two decades was in China's adopting market-facing policies. In the past two years, Xi has been purging the western educated, market-orientated, officials and replacing them with doctrinaire communists.
there are three problems with Communism. First, Communists, like their Mercantilist brothers in the Trump party, hold the belief that a government functionary can out-plan a free market. Secondly, Communism cannot harness what Keynes called "animal spirits;" how people's emotions and psychology influence their behavior and financial decisions. Rules and regulations, no matter how well thought out, cannot override hunches and feelings. Lastly, the inability of people to hold onto private property deprives a communist society of the entrepreneur. Without private property, and private profit, nobody is going to take the financial risks in the hope of profit. If there is no reward, nobody takes a risk.
China became our economic rival when she embraced free markets and turned away from the communist planned economy. She will not be able to compete now that she has turned in the direction of more soviets, and less entrepreneurs. It will take time, but what the US needs is to simply stay the course. We will beat China on the docks, not the battlefield.
I am not holding my breath give the Green New Scam. "Animal Spirits?" How quaint. How are things going in Lord Keynes' UK these days?
England, to her detriment, never listened to John. If they had, Germany would not have been saddled with ruinous debt and forced to WWII. ( Among other ideas.)
That was 1919. The General Theory came out in the 30s. Too bad that Labour in the 1940s did listen to him.
Keynes literally saved the British government at the beginning of WWI. He was a superhero who came from Oxford to stop a horrible decision which would have collapsed the pound.
Keynes was appointed financial representative for the Treasury to the 1919 Versailles peace conference. That’s where his plea to avoid Germany’s financial ruin was ignored.
Good point, Ming. I was 1 year old in 1949 and didn't know how to pay attention then as my focus was on my next meal. Maybe because Warlord Mao Tse-tung had a better army than Warlord Chiang Kai-shek. And Doctrinaire Communism can preach a loftier sermon than Rapacious Capitalism can most of the time. Unless the Preacher is Milton Friedman. Maybe Commies are just better at snagging serfs, peasants and the weak-minded than Texans are a bulldogging stray cattle.
Mao had a better Army, more true believers and was less corrupt than Chiang Kai-shek and his regime. Barbara Tuchman and General Stilwell wrote of the KMT corruption and brutality of how Chaing treated his troops.
And Russia was a better ally to Mao than we were to Chaing
We were not the source of Chiang's downfall. Russia was not the cause of Mao's success.
No. But all the stuff Stalin sent Mao helped
Stalin gave Mao arms, we denied Chiang arms. A decisive disparity.
From what I have read, Mao and his army were more active, less corrupt, more professional and successful than Chiang fighting the Japanese in WWII. Mao and his lot were more "of the people". Similarly, the Hukbalahup in the Philippines. They were communists and a very active guerilla force against the Japanese occupiers. In Vietnam, Vichy France and Bao Dai's people collaborated with Japan in the occupation, while Ho's Viet Mihn opposed them. In Europe, the underground fighting the Axis were mostly socialist. Probably about as Marxist leaning as Antifa is today pushing back at some imagined Nazism. I think at the end of WWII people were feeling fine to side with the folks who had been seen to be the hardest working people in throwing out the Japanese. And you are right about Chiang and the KMT. No amount of lipstick we tried to put on those pigs could make them kissable to the Chinese people. However, it worked on this kid in grammar school in the 50s and on the U.S. public, too. Stillwell got blamed for losing China. But it was Chiang, and us for backing the wrong horse.
Excellent points. Stilwell did not get the credit or respect that was due him, though he was made a four star General. Barbara Tuchman's biography of Stilwell was an excellent read. Stilwell made many sacrifices for America, especially in the CBI Theater. People speak of the Korean War as the Forgotten War, but I think the CBI Theater should have that title.
https://bit.ly/3yqhBeE
Chiang = Air Force
Mao = infantry
Mao was smarter than Chiang. Mao let Chiang bleed himself dry doing most of the fighting against the Japanese. Until the U.S. entered the war we were limited in the munitions we could (officially) give to China. I wonder what the alternative future would have been had we backed Mao vs Chiang?
"backing the wrong horse"
I would say the losing horse rather than the wrong horse. I consider Chiang to be the lesser of two evils, and that is about the best we can do in this world. Look next door; Syngman Rhee was certainly no angel, but better him than Kim Il Sung. Compare the results .
I could have phrased it better. For us Chiang was obviously the better choice. I meant to imply that for the Chinese Mao seemed the better choice to back, which as it turned out is what they did, to the degree that Chiang was chased away to Formosa.
Disagree. Chiang was at least as effective at fighting the Japanese as Mao. What the KMT could do was limited due to the lack of supply routes for lend-lease to reach them.
Worth noting that the "corrupt and ineffective" KMT had the Communists on the ropes - taking the offensive into north China - until the US pulled the plug on him.
Thanks. Only going from what I have read. Mayn't have delved deep enough.
Agree that Chiang's army had Mao on the ropes- Mao and his troops were forced into the Long March into Northern China. Our strategic focus was always on defeating Germany. Helping China fight the Japanese was helpful to us, but not our primary concern. Mao's strength, support of the Chinese people and martial professionalism continue to grow, Chiang's continued to decline. Chiang was happy to take our aid, but he refused to listen to Stilwell and other professionals on how to fight the Japanese. We did train some Chinese Nationalist troops up to a professional fighting level, but the numbers were too small to make a difference.
Our war with Japan officially ended on 2Sept45 with Japan's surrender. Chiang had caused his own demise and our withdrawing of support to him. Chiang wanted to be treated on the same level as France, the USSR and England- that was never going to happen.
The Communists had the support of the Chinese people, Chiang did not. The civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the KMT was the beginning of the end. WWII had ended and we had other issues to deal with- more involvement in China's civil war was not one of them. We continued to help Chiang up until the Fall of 1946 by which time the Civil War would determine who would control mainland China. Obviously the winner was the CCP and Chiang/KMT ended up moving to Taiwan in 1949.
"Chiang was corrupt" was invented to excuse the Democrats throwing the KMT under the bus. And we have abundant examples of communist armies treating their troops brutally, so that wasn't it.
They get driven out after 300 health violations and the crazy cat women finally get an interview on the news at 6.
You triggered me with "cat". (See below)
" The business acumen of the Chinese is legendary."
As are the sources of the restaurants' menu items.
Had a local Chinese restaurant go out of business last year. Very authentic cuisine, which means inedible to even those westerners who thrive on head cheese, mountain oysters, and scrapple. The old joke about using every part of the pig but the squeal is not a joke in China. I do not even want to think of what Chinese sausage is made of.
Been to Hong Kong many times. So many good eats there. Eyeballed "Very authentic (Chinese) cuisine" offered by street vendors and down by the Wanchai waterfront. What I saw in pots, fry pans and on plates predated John Carpenter's The Thing (1982). And as much as I love Korean food, even some of the bul-go-gi side dishes, here and abroad, are scary. But I tried those and like them all, just have to close my eyes and bear the occasional fork tine stabbing to my upper and lower lip. But that authentic Chinese food back during my R&R days? Nope then. Nope now. A tip: Never eat any KFC in Bangkok or a sub sandwich at Fleet Landing in Naples. (ps-s-s-st! They don't scrape away all the cat fur. Most intense dry heaves I have ever experienced.)
Thanks for the tip, but I have already decided my traveling days are over, for several reasons. The upside of all this mass immigration is that now those exotic and tasty foods come to us, so I don't have to travel. I did have egg foo young from a street vendor in Taipei once, and chicken(?) noodle soup from a street vendor in a village, and various other foodstuffs, in RVN . Enjoyed them immensely.
I have always had the best of luck with street food world-wide. My traveling days are pretty much over too. I won't fly and get rump-weary driving and all those pit stops and me going 5mph under the limit for safety make it slow travel. And yeah, all that mass immigration. Who wants to come home to find 23 squatters who'll take 6-12 months to evict, or to an empty house that has been looted?
The US used this type of business with developing nations back in the 60's and 70's. Building infrastructure that never could be paid for or maintained to get the country into the US government's debt. "You owe us, now do what we say", type of diplomacy.
We were fond of giving airports and phone systems. Both of which the USAF and NSA were pleased with.
If I were the Chinese I wouldn't trust any Cisco equipment.
In 1984, China exhibited artwork at the World's Fair in Knoxville TN.
The exhibits included a bamboo chest with thousands of coats of lacquer that was then carved in deep relief. A sailing ship with hundreds of tiny human figures on its decks, carved from a single elephant tusk. An ivory mountain wreathed in diaphanous smoke with hundreds of tiny climbers, topped with a sphere. Within the sphere, another sphere, free to rotate. Within that, another... twenty-four concentric spheres, carved from the outside, over a span of three generations.
I realized then that they take the long view. A culture that spans three thousand years has a planning horizon of decades, not months.
She can plan all she wants. Planning is no match for individual liberty, free markets, and free trade.
It was 1982. I was there.
Our strategists should be spending more time with Ian Toll’s Pacific Crucible and Alfred Thayer Mahan, and less time with White Guilt, lest we all be spending full time learning Mandarin down the road in the CCP language immersion course.
Not too worried here, Eric. The curriculum won't need to go beyond some basic commands and some pidgin Mandarin. When I was stationed in Japan I got by just fine in mastering Japanese taxi language: "Hidari, Migi, SUTOPPU!!!". "Statsu Kirin, Jodai" was handy too. Had 3 years of Latin in high school, so a Mandarin immersion course ought to be a breeze. I need to read Ian Toll's trilogy.
Don’t forget Ikura, desaku- “how much is it?”
Hai. Time in homeport (Yokosuka) was short. Mostly, I'd tender a ¥5000 or ¥10000 note and just accept whatever change I got back. Even in the gutter district Japanese are honest. I was single, 21, an RD1, getting ProPay, hostile fire pay, tax-free and still had a wad of VRB handy. They called me "Okane-san". It was the best of times...
I spent a year flying the H46 Marlog out of Atsugi. Yokosuka was a twice per day stop. Maybe gave you a ride, 1970 - 71. Hardy Barracks, Fuji base camp, Yokohama, Kiserazu, etc. etc.
Maybe we stumbled into each in Yokosuka. I did a lot of stumbling around outside the main gate. Got a familiarization flight in an SH-3 as part of ASAC school in 1968. Terrifying experience. I was standing behind the Aviator-in-Charge (because we don't call them "pilots") observing him going through an automated "dip cycle". He flicked the switch, went hands-free and we both watched the helo descend toward the icy water of Chesapeake Bay. And we descended and then descended some more until the guy flying the deathtrap said, "Oops!" and went hands on and yanked us skyward just feet from crashing. They called it day and headed back. Once seated, I noticed something in my peripheral vision. It was an arterial spray of something blood-like from the engine or transmission over head. I told the Aircrewman. He said, "Oh that?" and pointed at a stack of transmission fluid (or whatever) on the deck, "We got plenty to top it off if we need too. Don't worry." My fingerprints are probably still embedded in that seat frame. Next time in SH-3's was dozens of time between 1977-80 in Hawaii getting winched up & down, to and from DD's and FF's. Dozens of terrifying experiences. Had a standing offer from the Lamps Det OIC for a ride-along during our 1991 deployment. I was so-o-o happy to be finally in a position to politely decline a helo ride. Helo rides are terrifying. So are cat shots. I haven't flown since 1986 and never will again. Haven't even mentioned the flip-side of that cat shot when the C-2 took off from Cubi, the engines lost power and we coasted back to Cubi. That time, the Aircrewman was trying to open the door and jump out without a parachute. If he was that scared, I was, by God, 10 times as frightened. I'll take a ride on 40 year old Tilt-A-Whirl with missing bolts at a B-grade carnival after downing 3 chimichangas and a half gallon of warm root beer rather than ever fly again. Happy to be a Surface guy.
Dale, put another Cheated Death Again sticker by your name. The hydraulic system is 3,000 lbs of boost because it takes that to move the controls in an H3. When it goes empty, you die. There’s no more immediate emergency in a helo than hydraulic failure.
Meh. I have three different tours in 3 different helo platforms as an Aircrewman in each. MIL-H-83282 is in my veins.
"Helo rides are terrifying."
NOW they are. Back when I was younger and stupider I used to step out on the skid of Huey, holding on with one hand, and sidestep forward until I could wave at the pilot/copilot from right outside his window. They were not pleased. Now I can't even climb a ladder without my sphincter welding itself shut. I don't know if that shows that I am smarter, but I think it shows that I am (marginally) less stupid.
" It was the best of times..."
"Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
But to be young was very heaven!..."
Wordsworth
My pidgin worked quite well on Okinawa. Attitude and trying went a long way.
I have been rereading Mahan.
He has much to say about the merchant navy.
He is more than just battleships.
China loans money to small nations with terms that evolve into China's control of the policy decisions made by those small nations - via subsequent Chinese offers to them that they "cannot refuse." I would recommend a book to those with interests in that direction: The Imperial Cruise, by the man who also wrote Flags of Our Fathers, as well as Fly Boys.
Another book (so many recommended it to me that I bought it) is Judgement in Moscow (by Vladimir Bukovsky, finally (with minor revision and released in an English language version). As Imperial Cruise reaches back to Theodore Roosevelt's ill-advised personal foreign policy actions in the Pacific area, when he was POTUS, the Bukovsky book is a monumental archival effort that organizes information on USSR and Russian activities made available (with some effort) with fall of the Berlin wall. China's more recent history - the background of which can be secured by reading the book of Stillwell in China - supplies a useful context for Salamander's on-going comments about China and the Bukovsky book provides a third leg to this milkmaid's stool of the USA vis-a-vis international communist attacks on us in present day.
I notice in that Australian Broadcasting Company story that Djibouti is #2 on the CCP debtor list with 4.1% of it's GDP. It's almost like they teach geography in China along with mathematics.
Just buy the islands and be done with it. Worked great with Puerto Rico (sips pinã colada on beach)
It is sad to know how much blood we gave to get those islands back in WWII, and that we may have to do so again (if we even can).
Alas, that is a Big If.
Not another Guadalcanal
Hopefully not.
Next, please write about China in Africa. More than a million Chinese settlers and massive debt on infrastructure projects (Angola owes $19 billion). At some point, Africans will be forced to fight second wars of independence. At some point, China will bite off more than it can chew and a collapse will follow.
“How much land in Africa does China own?
The total area of Africa is approximately 1.2 billion acres, of which 71% is covered by land and 29% is covered by water. The total area of land that China owns in Africa is approximately 186,000 square miles (465,000 square kilometers). This is around 7% of the total land area in Africa.”
https://african.land/blog/article/how-much-land-does-china-own-in-africa-b88#:~:text=The%20total%20area%20of%20Africa,total%20land%20area%20in%20Africa.
I look forward to Africa whining and begging the Europeans to come back after experiencing a few decades under benevolent Chinese control.
(To which the Europeans will say, "so sorry, no can do" in Arabic.)
Pithy & merciless, Ming. : )
I doubt Niger will want the French back under any circumstances.
Even Algeria would want the French back under the right circumstances.
You might be right. I would take Charles and Kamila over Joe and Kamala.
The Africans have more machetes than the Chinese have settlers. The rule of law there is weak to start with. Whenever race has been added, blood runs freely there
I know about the machetes. I spent most of my adult life in Africa. There will come a breaking point. Africans are patient sufferers, but there always comes a breaking point.
All played out before in book, film and real life, SGT. Something of Value, Robert Ruark, Mau Mau's. The panga play got smoothed to a fine edge in Rwanda some 35 years later. You don't even have to be good with a machete to achieve political change. Have one in hand and scowl. 1952-60/1994...too early to predict a cycle, but 2032-ish might be a bad Chinese New Year.
and the follow-on book: Uhuru
That Uhuru. I was thinking closer to home. Comrade Yeshitela's Uhuru Movement here in Florida spreading Marxist Pan-Africanism.
Belt and Road Sal... Belt and Road in SOPAC.