CDR Sal, you are spot on with the analysis. Worked with NATO Allied Command Transformation for many years. We used to note it was "a soft collection effort disguised as a jobs program". Poland and Finland have seen reality, and are responding accordingly, sharply departing from their recent past. Germany is engaging in industrial and economic suicide despite getting their noses rubbed in "green energy reality" by the dunkelflaute (sp?) or "dark doldrums". (No sun and no wind = zero "green" energy). France continues their schizoid internal and international policies that can at best be described as the actions of a tantrum prone three year old who has a better energy policy but out of touch elite governance with little self awareness. (Not sure they have ever recovered from the losses of WW I / II). Conflict in the Pacific will be a genuine "hold your breath moment" for Europe. Fingers crossed.
Sometimes a nation needs to cut loose from idiots in other nations, to save itself and show the idiots they have to spend more than the required 2% to survive the Bear and the Dragon.
I can *almost* understand Slovenia being behind the power curve, but Belgium? Someone needs to remind them that flat geography equates to vulnerability, as in the Great Power events of the last century.
Last century? Last 500 years. The Low Countries were the field of battle for generations. Start looking at maps of various wars starting in the 15th century and there's a number of towns that start looking familiar. William the Silent, Marlborough, and Wellington would have understood the terrain of the Low Countries as fighting men.
Similar to Vietnam.... so Australia, South Korea and (maybe) New Zealand? Not too bad, actually. Still, it would help more if our defense contractors would get out of their peacetime mentality and put money into production capacity (and Congress buy it).
Peacetime mentality = profits before genuine effort to actually produce capability. To be fair, the Military Industrial Complex's (MIC..TM) are aided and abetted by the congress and DoD (active duty and civilians). DoD doesn't / can't do threat based analysis anymore to determine what to tell industry to produce. Capabilities based analysis let's DoD do what they want, tell the MIC to produce expensive incapable hardware, and move from active duty to board membership in a seamless manner. Congress gets jobs and donations for playing along in a very willing manner. OBTW, our potential adversaries give this situation "two thumbs up" and a 100% critics rating on "Rotten Tomatoes".../sarcasm off.
Just meeting the level stated, is not defending your interest.
A soldier in combat may have the regulation 200 rds of ammo on him but if he may go into combat he would behoove himself to go beyond what is just required.
I’m cautiously optimistic that the DOGE crew will cut enough DEI and other crap from the DoD to not only save us some money but shift our spending priorities into the upper right quadrant. I may be naive but if you eat an elephant one bite at a time you eventually finish the meal.
If we wise up and burn down a metric shitload of GOFO billets, SES billets, and their associated staffs, then our spending priorities will immediately improve.
Couple that with a ban on retired GOFOs being paid by lobbyists or government contractors, and you'll notice a sea change in acquisition priorities (once the wailing and gnashing of teeth fades away, of course).
The US budget is at a scale unlike any other. Of course, considering all the requirements coming out of the US defense budget, we do need a focus on some portions of a conventional war.
That Italy is in the lower left is interesting as all get out to me. They've got a very capable Navy and are planning to operate two variants of the F-35. They also were deploying in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Where's the money shortage coming from there? The chronic economic issues?
Luxembourg is an odd duck. It's either the largest microstate, and I must wonder if they have the manpower required for a more substantial military. Considering their strength is under 1000, there's quite a bit of growth space there.
France will always be idiosyncratic. They have their own auto industry. Their own armaments industry. Their own aircraft industry. Their own cuisine. Plus, to top it off, an effeminate prince married to his mother. But let's not get personal.
Of course, this problem dates back decades. Zig Brzezinski once called Europe the biggest retirement home on the planet. In the spirit of no monocausal thinking, the socialist history of Europe is compounded by the institutional memory of centuries of war, culminating in the 20th century. This does not free them from the responsibility for their own defense.
Given NATO's current state of "readiness'," I wonder what the war-gaming think tanks say?
We can provide more than a token force in Europe while fighting in the Pacific with the Army providing 5-6 Heavy Divisions and some air power, with the Pacific fight being Maritime and air forcused.
If necessary, yes. And there are only so many bases we can cram Air Force planes into in the western Pacific (but don't get me started on lack of air defenses and simple hardened aircraft shelters). But NATO able to get by with a small American heavy corps plus air power would be very helpful.
Don't count on it. A war with China is an existential event and priorities will pull everything to the east as Salamander noted. The American people will notice the serious lack of mutual support from NATO.
Agree. If we remember our history we know that even though the USMC fielded 4 divisions during WWII, the USA fielded more. They had primary responsibility for the SW Pacific and the not insignificant PI as well as assists in the amphib ops headed by the Marines. So, yeah, any deployed heavy BCTs in Europe can, probably should, stay. All the rest better get ready for the Pacific. Non-deployed heavies ought to get cannibalized for support troops and replacements with perhaps a few tank and armored infantry going to places like PI.
USAF will play a major role as well, they have more aircraft than the USN and heavy bombers as well. Though before anyone jumps ugly on the history of those, USAF heavies, at least the B1 and B52 can do Harpoon, maybe TLAM (and if not wouldn't be that hard to do quickly), and JSOW among others plus mines. USAF seems better at offensive mine warfare than the USN.
JSOC can take on the role of coast watchers and raiders. There's a place for everyone, maybe just not doing what they'd prefer. Again.
Europeans need to do more on defense within NATO. Europe is indeed the economy-of-force front, but it is a front. And the much more numerous but atomized European NATO forces need American capabilities to knit together their capabilities into a coherent defense effort.
And when I say "Europeans" I mean European states, not that proto-imperial European Union that would love to eject America from Europe by weakening NATO in order to strip away that pesky prefix. America fought two hot wars and one cold war to keep Europe out of hostile hands. Don't hand Europe to the EU. We won't like it.
Sorry, I've droned on about the EU threat for decades and it astounds me that people think Brussels will defend our interests so we don't have to.
Not mentioned but very relevant is, are these countries capable of raising budgets? Germany is an economic mess because of the Greenies shutting down power plants. It will take years to recover if they ever realize the magnitude of its grave errors. Great Britain's army is a hollow shell.
How do these nations pull it together in time? It will take years to rebuild and improve its industrial base. I heard (and I believe it) that France has enough ammo for a few days.
I wonder if there is time to get all this done. Then there is the almost certain massive civil unrest after the social safety net is cut deeply. Then there is Islam.
Honestly, if a wider war broke out in Europe I am pretty sure there will be no enthusiasm for our young men and women to rush over to die for an arrogant semi hostile place that no longer shares our values. GB is no longer a free nation with rights we hold dear here.
Germany was down to a handful of operational tanks so it looks like its an improvement. 100 tanks would last less than a week if that long in a head to head with Russia.
Who has any faith in a promise to spend 4% of GDP by 2030? Their track record over decades and what they are doing right now is the best predictor of what they will do in the future. Zip, zero, nada.
Confucius say, "famous German saying, 've will expend any number of Poles to keep die Russin out of das Vaterland'". Confucius say, "famous French saying, 'we will expend any number of Germans to keep the Russians out of France'".
In 1870, France and Germany had a disagreement. The Germans won. In the early 1900s, there was a rumor that the Germans wished to revisit that disagreement. In order to keep the disagreeable Germans at arms length or perhaps to prevent an invasion (through the middle of the Ardenne and Vosges mountains) the French built the Maginot Line. As an earlier French marshal had wondered, it was apparently built to prevent smuggling. The Germans, ever disagreeable, drove their armies, tanks, and artillery through Nederland and Belgium into northeastern France. And the bullets and shells fell like rain.
At the end of that disagreement, the French outrage created Versailles.
I have a friend in Finland who was young during the second world war. His mother had taken him to shop at Stockmann's located on the street that would later be called Mannerheimintie. He watched a Russian bomber fly toward them dropping bombs. Karelia, formerly in Finland but now in Russia, will never be the same - the Russians used it as a dump.
Glad you brought in the US Air Force and the Pacific. The Commander often is TOO Navy-centric and expects the US Navy to single-handedly defeat the CCP - I'm overstating that a bit.
I can only see a layered defense. The Navy and the front-line air bases will keep a safe parameter that the Air Force can then penetrate to attack the Chinese afloat.
At some point we need a political call - when do we hit mainland China where their naval bases and fighters launch from? Do the man-made islands count?
It took Nixon to hit Hanoi and Haiphong. Johnson always held back.
Well sure. I assume that we are prepared for the Chinese to strike US bases in reply? I'm pretty sure the number of Patriot batteries we have protecting Lemoore and Whidbey Island is zero, so I'm not so confident we are.
There are several scenarios on how such a fight would play out and I'm not sure I could imagine or predict how it would come down. Do we have a new "War Plan Orange" for the Western Pacific?
I've long assumed that Guam, Okinawa, Subic, all get hit by Chinese first strikes. Hitting CONUS first seems like an overly bold move - but so was Pearl Harbor.
CDR Sal, you are spot on with the analysis. Worked with NATO Allied Command Transformation for many years. We used to note it was "a soft collection effort disguised as a jobs program". Poland and Finland have seen reality, and are responding accordingly, sharply departing from their recent past. Germany is engaging in industrial and economic suicide despite getting their noses rubbed in "green energy reality" by the dunkelflaute (sp?) or "dark doldrums". (No sun and no wind = zero "green" energy). France continues their schizoid internal and international policies that can at best be described as the actions of a tantrum prone three year old who has a better energy policy but out of touch elite governance with little self awareness. (Not sure they have ever recovered from the losses of WW I / II). Conflict in the Pacific will be a genuine "hold your breath moment" for Europe. Fingers crossed.
Sometimes a nation needs to cut loose from idiots in other nations, to save itself and show the idiots they have to spend more than the required 2% to survive the Bear and the Dragon.
I can *almost* understand Slovenia being behind the power curve, but Belgium? Someone needs to remind them that flat geography equates to vulnerability, as in the Great Power events of the last century.
Tank and motor rifle country.
Last century? Last 500 years. The Low Countries were the field of battle for generations. Start looking at maps of various wars starting in the 15th century and there's a number of towns that start looking familiar. William the Silent, Marlborough, and Wellington would have understood the terrain of the Low Countries as fighting men.
Belgium assumes that the Americans are coming before anyone gets to Germany's eastern border. So do the Germans.
Similar to Vietnam.... so Australia, South Korea and (maybe) New Zealand? Not too bad, actually. Still, it would help more if our defense contractors would get out of their peacetime mentality and put money into production capacity (and Congress buy it).
Peacetime mentality = profits before genuine effort to actually produce capability. To be fair, the Military Industrial Complex's (MIC..TM) are aided and abetted by the congress and DoD (active duty and civilians). DoD doesn't / can't do threat based analysis anymore to determine what to tell industry to produce. Capabilities based analysis let's DoD do what they want, tell the MIC to produce expensive incapable hardware, and move from active duty to board membership in a seamless manner. Congress gets jobs and donations for playing along in a very willing manner. OBTW, our potential adversaries give this situation "two thumbs up" and a 100% critics rating on "Rotten Tomatoes".../sarcasm off.
When Congress can't even pass a budget, what would we expect?
Just meeting the level stated, is not defending your interest.
A soldier in combat may have the regulation 200 rds of ammo on him but if he may go into combat he would behoove himself to go beyond what is just required.
Maybe this is how france lost so many wars.
I’m cautiously optimistic that the DOGE crew will cut enough DEI and other crap from the DoD to not only save us some money but shift our spending priorities into the upper right quadrant. I may be naive but if you eat an elephant one bite at a time you eventually finish the meal.
If we wise up and burn down a metric shitload of GOFO billets, SES billets, and their associated staffs, then our spending priorities will immediately improve.
Couple that with a ban on retired GOFOs being paid by lobbyists or government contractors, and you'll notice a sea change in acquisition priorities (once the wailing and gnashing of teeth fades away, of course).
The US budget is at a scale unlike any other. Of course, considering all the requirements coming out of the US defense budget, we do need a focus on some portions of a conventional war.
That Italy is in the lower left is interesting as all get out to me. They've got a very capable Navy and are planning to operate two variants of the F-35. They also were deploying in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Where's the money shortage coming from there? The chronic economic issues?
Luxembourg is an odd duck. It's either the largest microstate, and I must wonder if they have the manpower required for a more substantial military. Considering their strength is under 1000, there's quite a bit of growth space there.
The CCP budget is no slouch & in many ways more muscular & focused than the US budget.
France will always be idiosyncratic. They have their own auto industry. Their own armaments industry. Their own aircraft industry. Their own cuisine. Plus, to top it off, an effeminate prince married to his mother. But let's not get personal.
But at least their wine is good……🍷🍷
Of course, this problem dates back decades. Zig Brzezinski once called Europe the biggest retirement home on the planet. In the spirit of no monocausal thinking, the socialist history of Europe is compounded by the institutional memory of centuries of war, culminating in the 20th century. This does not free them from the responsibility for their own defense.
Given NATO's current state of "readiness'," I wonder what the war-gaming think tanks say?
We can provide more than a token force in Europe while fighting in the Pacific with the Army providing 5-6 Heavy Divisions and some air power, with the Pacific fight being Maritime and air forcused.
If necessary, yes. And there are only so many bases we can cram Air Force planes into in the western Pacific (but don't get me started on lack of air defenses and simple hardened aircraft shelters). But NATO able to get by with a small American heavy corps plus air power would be very helpful.
Don't count on it. A war with China is an existential event and priorities will pull everything to the east as Salamander noted. The American people will notice the serious lack of mutual support from NATO.
Agree. If we remember our history we know that even though the USMC fielded 4 divisions during WWII, the USA fielded more. They had primary responsibility for the SW Pacific and the not insignificant PI as well as assists in the amphib ops headed by the Marines. So, yeah, any deployed heavy BCTs in Europe can, probably should, stay. All the rest better get ready for the Pacific. Non-deployed heavies ought to get cannibalized for support troops and replacements with perhaps a few tank and armored infantry going to places like PI.
USAF will play a major role as well, they have more aircraft than the USN and heavy bombers as well. Though before anyone jumps ugly on the history of those, USAF heavies, at least the B1 and B52 can do Harpoon, maybe TLAM (and if not wouldn't be that hard to do quickly), and JSOW among others plus mines. USAF seems better at offensive mine warfare than the USN.
JSOC can take on the role of coast watchers and raiders. There's a place for everyone, maybe just not doing what they'd prefer. Again.
all the air and sealift will be in Pac. No available lift to EUCOM
Europeans need to do more on defense within NATO. Europe is indeed the economy-of-force front, but it is a front. And the much more numerous but atomized European NATO forces need American capabilities to knit together their capabilities into a coherent defense effort.
And when I say "Europeans" I mean European states, not that proto-imperial European Union that would love to eject America from Europe by weakening NATO in order to strip away that pesky prefix. America fought two hot wars and one cold war to keep Europe out of hostile hands. Don't hand Europe to the EU. We won't like it.
Sorry, I've droned on about the EU threat for decades and it astounds me that people think Brussels will defend our interests so we don't have to.
Not mentioned but very relevant is, are these countries capable of raising budgets? Germany is an economic mess because of the Greenies shutting down power plants. It will take years to recover if they ever realize the magnitude of its grave errors. Great Britain's army is a hollow shell.
How do these nations pull it together in time? It will take years to rebuild and improve its industrial base. I heard (and I believe it) that France has enough ammo for a few days.
I wonder if there is time to get all this done. Then there is the almost certain massive civil unrest after the social safety net is cut deeply. Then there is Islam.
Honestly, if a wider war broke out in Europe I am pretty sure there will be no enthusiasm for our young men and women to rush over to die for an arrogant semi hostile place that no longer shares our values. GB is no longer a free nation with rights we hold dear here.
Great post. Lots of good info. Thanks
Frog force structure is complicated by how you count all those paramilitary forces, with armored vehicles, gunships, and parachute units
asfor: "France and Germany. They also are the two primary EU military powers."
Germany has 250 tanks, but less than 100 run regularly. Poland has 600, on its way to 1600
Germany was down to a handful of operational tanks so it looks like its an improvement. 100 tanks would last less than a week if that long in a head to head with Russia.
Who has any faith in a promise to spend 4% of GDP by 2030? Their track record over decades and what they are doing right now is the best predictor of what they will do in the future. Zip, zero, nada.
Confucius say, "famous German saying, 've will expend any number of Poles to keep die Russin out of das Vaterland'". Confucius say, "famous French saying, 'we will expend any number of Germans to keep the Russians out of France'".
In 1870, France and Germany had a disagreement. The Germans won. In the early 1900s, there was a rumor that the Germans wished to revisit that disagreement. In order to keep the disagreeable Germans at arms length or perhaps to prevent an invasion (through the middle of the Ardenne and Vosges mountains) the French built the Maginot Line. As an earlier French marshal had wondered, it was apparently built to prevent smuggling. The Germans, ever disagreeable, drove their armies, tanks, and artillery through Nederland and Belgium into northeastern France. And the bullets and shells fell like rain.
At the end of that disagreement, the French outrage created Versailles.
I have a friend in Finland who was young during the second world war. His mother had taken him to shop at Stockmann's located on the street that would later be called Mannerheimintie. He watched a Russian bomber fly toward them dropping bombs. Karelia, formerly in Finland but now in Russia, will never be the same - the Russians used it as a dump.
FAR too many have seen the end of war.
The defense of Europe should no longer be a primary US role.
Glad you brought in the US Air Force and the Pacific. The Commander often is TOO Navy-centric and expects the US Navy to single-handedly defeat the CCP - I'm overstating that a bit.
I can only see a layered defense. The Navy and the front-line air bases will keep a safe parameter that the Air Force can then penetrate to attack the Chinese afloat.
At some point we need a political call - when do we hit mainland China where their naval bases and fighters launch from? Do the man-made islands count?
It took Nixon to hit Hanoi and Haiphong. Johnson always held back.
Well sure. I assume that we are prepared for the Chinese to strike US bases in reply? I'm pretty sure the number of Patriot batteries we have protecting Lemoore and Whidbey Island is zero, so I'm not so confident we are.
There are several scenarios on how such a fight would play out and I'm not sure I could imagine or predict how it would come down. Do we have a new "War Plan Orange" for the Western Pacific?
I've long assumed that Guam, Okinawa, Subic, all get hit by Chinese first strikes. Hitting CONUS first seems like an overly bold move - but so was Pearl Harbor.