We always act as if the USN will operate in alone. In a Pacific War we will probably have Taiwan, Japan, Australia, S. Korea, and the Philippines on our side. Many of them add significant naval capability as well as repair facilities. I think, at a minimum, we should consider the possibility that USN ships will be able to be repaired in those countries.
All the port and repair facilities in those areas will be wrecked by Chinese Missile Barrages on Day 1, 2, 3, and 4. We are going to have to go out to the Second Island Chain or Australia to build defendable bases.
That’s always possible, but I think the PRC will want to keep the war as limited as possible. Shooting missiles at home countries is a bad idea. With an economy dependent on exports and imports of oil from far away, China cannot win a global war, and they know it.
They won’t limit the war. They know they have one shot to defeat us. They will attack with every thing they can muster. Total war is their doctrine. No half measures and no restraint.
Agreed. If conditions and timing dont permit hitting the fwd CVBG at sea, theyll do it in port. The amount of capability in Japan cant be ignored. So whether the Chinese are keen on it or not, Japan gets hit. If we place worthy targets in the Philippines, so do they. Guam gets plastered, and any other smaller states who have given us basing or other significant assistance will too. The amount of damage, havoc, and advantage that a suprise attack gives the Chinese is too much to ignore. A blockade that allows us to get the fwd CVBG to a position of safety isnt a wise move at all. Sure, they can maybe hit it later, but why not whittle down ALL the local military threats from all the countries in one moment? Id bet a whole meager paycheck that the first word we hear of war breaking out will come from a damaged (or worse) CVN...
They won’t go for a blockade at first. Unless they tee it off as another exercise, which is likely. They will take their best swing at us first and then Taiwan will go down without a fight.
You are correct, as usual. So for us, as individuals, we who sit in public places with our back to a wall, facing the door. We who stock food, medicine, and sanitary supplies in our homes. We who have a secure water source. Honestly, in your personal opinion, is there anything we can do, collectively, to strengthen our defense as a nation? Is there anything we can do to stop our government from borrowing 10 billion dollars every day? I encounter young people every day, and I encourage them to strive, and to succeed. Honestly, my friend, what do you think we might could do?
“If the United States intervenes in the conflict with China over Taiwan, Beijing is capable of striking 330 American military bases within the first island chain within the first 10 hours. The number of American casualties will reach from 100,000 to 200,000, and hundreds of thousands of Japanese military personnel will also die” - Chinese professor Li Yi
You are expecting them to act rationally. A rational actor would not attack Taiwan or the US at all: Rationally their best course of action is to allow Taiwan to be overtaken by leftists like the US has been
No. Because they are not RATIONAL actors. If they waited that long, their regime would collapse from internal stress. We cannot expect them to act rationally: That includes attacking mainland US with nuclear missiles. The threat must be honored, and we are living on hopium.
Agree that they wont wait. And I see what you mean about being irrational, but at the same time, with the exception of contemplating war, antagonizing neighbors etc. But if you look at the grand scheme and their long term goals, theyre being quite methodical and rational in the various steps theyre taking towards those goals. Our assessment of rationality has to be done in the context of what they want to see in 2024, 2030, 2040, 2050, and beyond. We cant hardly focus past the next election cycle, so its difficult for us to objectively assess their actions. But Id say, they're not only NOT irrational, but rather well considered.
I'm not sure they will use nukes when they can do [perhaps almost] as much damage with sabotage to infrastructure and power grid without triggering a nuclear response from us.
Given the geography of the islands i believe it's a relatively trivial exercise to bottle fleet elements in Guam by emplacing obstacles both in the inner and outer harbor jetties. This is especially true for the inner harbor. A suitably equipped trojan horse could cause enough midterm problems as to make Guam a humanitarian problem for the US and with luck remove a number of submarines and at least one of our two sub tenders from the equation for the critical early months of a war.
That is a very fragile planning assumption that better have a functional and ready branch plan. If you need a decade to build what you need to execute that branch plan, you've already lost the war.
And they probably be dealing with attacks by China, North Korea or local Chinese proxy insurgents, or have the same structural blue water sustainment deficiencies as the USN.
You need to read "The End of Everything" by Victor Davis Hanson. The Chinese will not fight a limited war, they don't share our "we can't be so brutal as Hamas" moral philosophy, they've already threatened Japan if Japan assists with a Taiwan "skirmish", and a threat of "we will target you if you assist the US" strikes a lot of fear into S Korea, the PI, Australia and others.
Not a nuclear ship or cvn. They have graving docks big enough but it doesn’t mean they have the draft or can handle the weight. Tankers, bulkers, bix ships launch very light in comparison. Same eeason a cvn can necer return to dock 12 after launch. Plus nukes need lots of gear to plug them in while in dock to keep the heart pumping.
Taiwan will certainly not be able to repair our ships - they will be under attack. The PI are unreliable at the present. S. Korea? China may make a deal with them to stay out, or more likely tell N. Korea to attack as a distraction. Or the NORKS may attack because they think it's a good idea with the US distracted.
Airlifting repair parts for a ship? With all respect due to the Admiral, how many sheets of hull plating does he think the US Air Force will be able to airlift in the already blocked out to the tricentennial C5s and C17's? Australia is a long way away to sail/tow a sinking ship.
But even robust recovery and repair capacity may not be enough - if they are destroyed on Day 1 of the war in their 'safe harbors' of Guam, Palau, Australia, even Pearl - a sunken ship or three off Hammer Point and the fleet is bottlenecked for weeks. Likewise fifth-column attacks on the Coronado Bay Bridge, or off Zuniga Point. And guess who runs the Panama Canal now?
South Korea certainly has the capability. They are the #2 ship building country for commercial ships. I think there's little doubt they would commit to assist repairs for allied ships at the very least, but their repair facilities are vulnerable to attack from China and North Korea. But that would require those countries to choose to attack repair facilities over other targets.
Still, the US alone has substantially more large naval vessels than China, even without its in theater allies. Most of the Chinese navy are small coast guard type vessels. And the US and our allies are likely to have near air superiority within a few days of full scale war if our carriers survive. China will lose a lot of capabilities very quickly, as well, so both sides will probably be in need of repairs and seeing massively degraded in theater capabilities within the first week or two.
Did you read all of my first 'graph, above? How much ship repair will they be doing if the Norks attack? If China preemptively destroys the shipyards?
And every year we go without the war starting, the US Navy gets smaller and less capable, and the PLA-N gets better and bigger ships. How many billions of dollars has the US wasted on DDG(x), CG(x), and LCS? On the Ford-Class (when they are still not micap)?
One can blow a lot of ordnance taking out a shipyard unless you hit hose graving dock gates, sink the floating docks, etc. This is where small could be very handy. Things we can get in and out of the water with marine railways and marine travel lifts. Might be good to play around with how the Seabies can set those up in an expeditionary fashion.
Sure. And hitting close enough to count is not that hard with todays PGMs.
Other great targets: Power stations. Flammable storage areas. CBUs over areas with lots of people in them. The big cranes. Just off the top of my head.
The South Koreans are masters of robotic welding, shaping bulbous bows, modular assembly, etc. however a container ship or a cruise ship are not warships. I am not sure what it would take and in what time to transition shipyards form civilian to military use.
Those military aged males that have popped through the border couldn’t possible have been mustered with the non existent Chinese “police stations”. Nope.
If we have a war in WESTPAC Taiwan may be the center of the party. China has been making inroads in the Philippines, if things don't change there what side will they come down on? Nukes worry me most.
A T-ESD modified into a heavy lift ship would require removal of the lanes for LCACs and the vehicle fuel and handling deck, and moving the deck fittings mounted for the ballasting system. It’s practical, but would require either new construction or removal from service of either ESD.
We’ve wasted time and treasure, and there are hungry tigers ridden by authoritarians about.
I thought the Expeditionary Transfer Dock would be a better option than the Army Pier at Gaza. Run LCACs to the Beach with the supplies when needed. No fixed Pier. But LCACs would have put US "Boots on the Beach" when we already know that what we built required "Boots in the Surf" or people in the water.
We all know there were better options, than a US Army JLOT pier for Gaza, the no-boots on the beach and the micro-managing of optics, hamstrung the entire idea. As pointed out in the most recent Midrats Melee...this stuff ain't classified, sooner or, later we're going to find out who's bright idea this was, what options were even considered and who amongst the brass nodded obediently rather than throwing down their stars in opposition. Gotta get through the Afghan/Kabul inquisition first....
All of that gear was added to the ship in Portland after delivery from NASSCO. I have to think removing it will be no harder. I think the challenge is whether the deck was designed to support the weight of ships and can the ship actually submerge deep enough. The draft lines on the deck show only 9 feet and that appears to be what was tested in sea trials from other on line photos.
if only we had the ritual of seppuku as an alternative. not realistic, of course, because it requires honor and shame. neither of which have been present in a majority of our fo/go pop since probably 1783.
I was one of hundreds working on the Battleship Texas Restoration Project and what was really the "rate limiting step" was the lack/unavailability of a Dry Dock on the Gulf Coast that could handle a 570 foot long, 27,000 ton, 110 year old ship. There were contingency plans for an Open Ocean Tow from Galveston to Mobile or Tampa which would have been an "adventure" for the onboard DC and Pump Crews.
The lack of Dry Dock and Repair Facilities on the West Coast and in the Pacific will play a major role in a War with China. Either the US has to "reinvent" the logistic and repair bases we had in Micronesia during World War II or pump massive amounts of funding into infrastructure in Australia which might have political problems over here.
Just like the Maritime Pre-Position Squadrons, this type of Infrastructure is an East Target for Budget Cuts in Peacetime. But when you need them, you need them and you are in Bad Shape if you don't have them ready and available.
Last I checked that frigate will need a lot of young people qualified to serve on it. I grew up in the country. I had plenty to do without bumping into or up against other people. Most people aren't that lucky.
We (as a nation) are not serious about war. If you tour the engine room of a WW II vessel, there is a pad-eye above every piece of machinery, and a series of pad-eyes to transfer it to the nearest hatch, for rapid removal and replacement. We no longer have that. To change out a pump these days, you first have to weld in a stiffener, and a pad eye. Then you need to wrestle it out of the engine room, because we do not have that series of pad-eyes. There are also no hatches. You need to cut open the hull, or a couple of decks, to remove and replace machinery.
Similarly for our land-based vehicles and equipment, field repairs are ancient history. If just one component fails, the vehicle needs to be retrieved by a larger vehicle, or else abandoned. We no longer have robust, field repairable equipment.
Unless we use our superior air power, to deliver death from above, the bad guys might could win.
If you watch the Devil’s Speech from A Man for All Seasons you will hear Sir Thomas More warn about what happens when you cut down all the laws in order to get the devil.
In this case, the people will soon figure out that the law is just a weapon and will act accordingly.
But the people in power don’t care. They staged a coup and they have no intention of ever relinquishing power. I suspect Trump’s plane will be blown up or he will hang himself in his cell on Rikers Island
I tremble for my country when reflect that God is just - A. Lincoln
If they do that it will be all over. I don't know if the bubble will go up in 5 minutes, 5 months, or 5 years, but if they kill President Trump in his cell, might as well call time of death on the First Republic.
I predicted the exact state by sate election result several weeks beforehand, signed and dated. Quit your BS and research elections. Large urban and underserved take more time to count. Its been that way whether its a mayor Daily or a Desantis.
And my uncle died January 6th of Covid so you can either learn to suffer in silence until you are buried in a traitors grave or are properly resworn allegiance to the nation. Then get working on ways to make it better. I never hear one of your ilk with any decent amendments to improve how the entire thing runs. Its always tear the whole thing down and/or Jesus Jesus Jesus.
Why are we not ready? Look at the 7 billion dollar disaster of the FFG program. Six years in and only a budget deficit and some welded steel to show for it. The idea was sound: buy an existing design, stick US weapons and sensors on it, keep most of everything below the weather deck and build em fast and cheap(er) - although not by much - than a Burke.
So what did they do? Made it longer, wider, deeper and heavier and changed the power plant and reconfigured every internal space (that we know, because they still haven't finished the drawings!).
Is this just pork barrelling at its worst? Is this institutional pushback against a "foreign" design competitor? Does navy and industry want to build more Burkes and so are killing the frigates on purpose?
On the subject of repair ships, the US lacks the industrial capacity to get these things built and delivered fast... but South Korea doesn't. While the British yards were tied up with building carrier blocks and then frigates (should have got their design instead of FREMM) they got their new replenishment ships built fast and cheap by Hyundai Heavy Industries and then brought them home to fit out, which didn't tie up a slipway.
The steel is a big part of it. Steel is cheap and air is free, but their air and steel are both cheaper than ours. It adds up. Plus American sourcing for every little thing wastes money, time and then more money because time is money.
It’s not like it’s a problem that the nearest “west coast” steel mill is in Texas, right? The only west coast plate mill in Portland, owned by Russians.
That’s predictated on if we can have the transport capability to move steel and material to repair to a forward port suitable. China has done a lot of preparation of the battlefield. See New Caledonia riots against the French colonial government.
They're not bombarding them, yet. US yards seem unable to fulfill needs right now. Handing a juicy contract to a foreign yard might wake some up (although in reality, it is more likely to line the pockets of professional lobbyists then it is the pockets of welders and fabricators).
Any initial kinetics will be shellshocking. Most Americans have never been punched in the face or even understand what true adrenaline under pressure feels like. As I have said before, the Chinese will strike first and the normalcy bias will lead to inaction. The INDOPACOM and 7th Fleet watch floors will be stunned and paralyzed as they see hundreds of PLB’s from our aircrews and dozens of reports of ship impacts across the entire region. The stress those battle watch captains will endure is so overwhelming it can’t be described in a sentence. The sense of helplessness as our fleet is damaged and our aircraft are destroyed and our information is unreliable at best or not even available.
Now transpose that in an order of magnitude to our civilian leadership.
We need the military force necessary to immediately get back into the fight and restore dominance and get the information flow back. The ship repair proposal by Admiral Paparo is simply not realistic. We need the capacity at Pearl, Bremerton and San Diego as well as Long Beach and Los Angeles. We need the capability in San Francisco and protectable harbors. We need the trade skills. Most importantly we need a plan. We lack a plan.
We can't even recruit enough warm bodies to enlist, much less train them to warfighting standards. But hey, those few sailors that we do have? They're very up to date on their preferred pronouns.
I disagree. The DOd and it’s political class doesn’t have the ability to recruit.
Get back to why people volunteer for the Armed Forces and you will increase recruitment. Get back to industrialization & providing guarantee of long term employment for those who don’t look to go pay for a gender study or X Studies degree & those repair yards will be full.
Concur. And they didn’t rely on an instant operational picture and global communications. We will be fighting blind and without a plan or sadly the resolve.
China does not want a world war, they want Taiwan and the SCS. More likely they will blockade Taiwan, then dare us to break it. The Japanese learned what happens when you pull a sneak attack.
Problem is...there will be no. "Arsenal of Democracy II". Replicating the capabilities that built (and repaired) everything in almost unimaginable quantities is a daydream at best.
Disagree. They want Nk prepared to invade the South; RUS secured in holding UKR and prepared to invade NATO; & Iran ready to unleash havoc in the ME & Med.
This is part of their escalation ladder to ward off the US and the West.
You haven’t been paying attention to anything the Chinese have done in the last 10 years. You claim China only wants Taiwan as if that is somehow something we should simply accept and plan only for. Yea I remember Hong Kong a while back….
China has stated clearly and unambiguously that they desire dominion and that the United States and its influence is in the pass. WTF do you think Darfur crisis was about? Myanmar coup? South African government change towards China? Chinese Belts and Roads literally everywhere including the Caribbean islands of Antigua, Bahamas and South America? China will most certainly blockade Taiwan, but it will be after they punch us in the face. Once we tuck our tails and retreat to the eastern pacific, Taiwan will fall without a shot. But that’s in the most cheapest COA. I expect China to attack us wherever we can be found and that includes CONUS, Panama Canal Zone, and our pacific islands. Including, our Allies, Japan, Philippines and Australia. You can subscribe to your beliefs of Chinese intent but no offense intended: it’s very naive.
That seems to negate divide and conquer as well as know he enemy and know yourself. Although they do seem hell bent on not dividing and conquering in the big sense.
The lack of auxiliary ships be they heavy lift semi submersible or anything should be no surprise. When you neglect every aspect of the maritime world from shipyards to merchant ships do you think anyone will invest in dry docks?
I'm afraid we Americans still do not seem capable of learning history or its lessons from the past when it comes to national security. After America's unwillingness to properly assess Germany's unleashing of unrestricted attacks on neutral shipping that killed hundreds of Americans and other provocations that got us into WWI, escalating Japanese hostilities for a decade culminating in the Pearl Harbor attack that got into WWII, Al Qaida’s declaration of war in the 1990s that went unresponded to until 9-11 got us into the GWOT, and now the cyber-attacks, intellectual property theft, and many other provocations by the CCP for over two decades, our political leaders and those who elect them still appear incapable of getting serious about addressing and preparing to confront the emergent foreign threats facing us all. Instead, they continue to believe that "hope is a strategy" where they play a game of national security "hot potato" hoping to pass on the mess they failed to fix and reach retirement before it all unravels knowing that they are unlikely to ever be held accountable once they have passed the mess to someone else. Until Americans start informing themselves about the foreign threats emerging around the world and start holding failed leadership accountable for gross incompetence and dereliction of duty, we are likely going to have to lose a lot more American lives yet again before people decide to wake up. Unfortunately, we likely no longer have the timelines of the past that allowed us to build up and deploy an effective response... and a war over Taiwan will be an existential threat to either the CCP’s unchallenged control over China and rise in the World, or U.S. credibility as the World’s guarantor of freedom and security against tyrannical regimes and ideologies.
"I'm afraid we Americans still do not seem capable of learning history or its lessons from the past when it comes to national security."
First, they have to have the opportunity to have been taught history. Not sure that is being done in high schools and colleges today. The media certainly avoids historical perspective in the platitudes spouted by the commentariate class.
Very true. Even with the greatest of access to information in human history, most people are more ignorant today than when we all had to rely solely on libraries, magazines and newspapers. Additionally, critical thinking skills have been attacked by the same party that banned black literacy in many states during the first half of this country's history.
"Our political leaders and those who elect them still appear incapable of getting serious about addressing and preparing to confront the emergent foreign threats facing us all."
At some point a century of incompetence may be evidence of ulterior motives on the part of our leaders, and a desire to get into these conflicts. Beyond that, I no longer have any faith that they all truly elected, as opposed to selected and imposed upon us.
On the other hand we are leading the universe in terrorist-supporting pier construction and deployment (except in moderately high sea states). Heard today the cost of the Gaza pier was downgraded from $320M to a bargain basement cost of $230M. Would have been better spent on just about anything else including more floating dry docks.
In spite of being a gigantic fan of Commander Salamander, I strongly disagree a war in the Western Pacific will be a long one. That is NOT the conclusion of either PLA OR DoD Sims, nor of my own. Quoting one US general officer disclosing the results of a number of these classified games, "we lose simultaneously in all domains." Their doctrine (look up the Everest Series at CASI Publications) is to win quickly, exploiting the first mover advantage (meaning probably minimal warning of the fight - there are significant indicators in their planning they will give merchant vessels warning to leave the area, exempting only those who are on defined headings from attack for example).
Yes, that is the most realistic scenario. So what happens after "we lose simultaneously in all domains?" Will we survive as a weakened, less-prosperous country, or will the bad guys try to occupy and destroy us?
I suggest that a weakened U.S., with increased crime, drug-abuse, and social disintegration (even more than we have now) would not be a prize worth capturing.
CCP does not intend to give us a vote on the matter. The most elite school of the CCP (which has about 2000 colleges) is reserved for top leaders. A book written for it (alone) was written under the direct supervision of (and official authorship of) Xi himself. He declares the original intent of Communism was the correct one: world rule. In Xi's version, the goal is for a local Communist party to control each nation. But ALL of them are to be chapters of the CCP itself. Communist "negotiations" come with preconditions so severe it means, when you agree to show up, you ALREADY have de facto agreed you are negotiating the terms of your surrender. Suffer no illusions: Communists are quite serious about this sort of thing. They didn't build the world's largest military, and the world's largest industrial base, because they didn't intend to use them.
I think they'll kill power through most of our urban and suburban areas, and after several months of strong immoral people stocking less strong, perhaps more moral people for food, our greatly reduced population will attempt to establish some resistance against the international peacekeepers sent to "help" us.
Will to fight after we lose 2-3 Nimitz Class CVN’s (Admiral Paparo’s “conservative” estimate) will be the main thing. The sky is falling, cowardly leftists will demand we sue for peace. Half of congress would vote for it. Shit show incoming.
They just need to fear those who want to fight on more. Again, if they force peace they will just birth a far right overthrow as a reaction to the betrayal. Pretty sure that has happened somewhere before.
The US NEVER adopted ANY sort of plan to insure Ukraine would be a short war. Given that Russia is at least 14 times larger, it is amazing how well Ukraine has done. It is NOT in our interests to let the fuel and food cost impacts of this war continue. Even more, it is NOT in our interests to allow aggression of this kind not to result in clear, immediate defeat of the aggressor. Declare a limited objective - and act on it. Russian forces should be expelled by a coup de main, under an air umbrella.
The overall consensus when it started was that the Russians would get to their goals quickly, and force the Ukrainians to some kind of negotiated truce.
See the Russo-Japanese War in 1906. Russia was a "great power" and a European power - only the US was regarded as a power outside Europe in those days. It defeated the Russians decisively - twice at sea and several times on land. It committed its last reserves (those 55 years old) for the Battle of Mukden, and then implemented its war termination plan (one that won President Teddy Roosevelt a Nobel Peace Prize). I myself witnessed the 1967 Mideast War. [We were not officially there, but my technical advisory team did get a letter from the President of Israel - an office I didn't know existed - thanking us for our participation without saying why?] The U.S. got half the captured radar and missiles to perform technical evaluation, on condition we shared our analysis with Israel. Short wars are entirely feasible, and the only sort we should fight. I was trained that an opplan WITHOUT a clear path to victory should not be approved.
What price are you willing to pay in order to counter this aggression? Personally, I don't think Ukraine is worth a cent or the life of a Seaman Apprentice.
Where will the ship repair capacity come from? That alone proves it will be a long war. Unless we sue for peace in the first month after China threatens to nuke us.
What happens is either exert and maintain air and naval supremacy or we lose. If we have our CVBGs and AF sitting there and they take whatever the Chinese throw at us, and destroy their offensive potential, then we are basically in an unassailable position. It will take years for China to rebuild the forces they lost in the attempt, and they'd be doing so against a fully prepared enemy. Nobody is going to risk a heavily opposed amphibious assault when they don't control the sea or the air. And if they did, they'd be unable to resupply because... they don't control the sea or the air.
In that respect, it's fundamentally unlike Ukraine, where NATO and Russian can easily move into the war zone.
If we don't maintain that air and sea supremacy, then it's just the opposite. If we lose too many ships or planes, or we have to "retire" because we can no longer defend them (we run out of missiles before they do), then we are ceding months, at a minimum, to China to allow them to stop resupply to Taiwan, conduct their assault, and establish their own unassailable air and sea control.
By the time we are supplied to get back in the fight, the battle of Taiwan would be over. To continue the war at that point would mean something very different (launching our own reconquest) than the initial premise (staving off Chinese conquest).
I just can't see them giving us any chance to rebuild unless they really want to maintain us as a customer after the war. If it was me and tactical considerations only, I'd waste our power using agents in place and sit back to watch us lose half our population or more to starvation.
I agree. Both sides will have exhausted their missile magazines and stockpiles of smart weapons within months. One blessing of the war in Ukraine is that the West is building up its industrial base, but it won’t be enough for this level of combat. China’s export-dependent economy will collapse. It won’t be pretty for the rest of the world either, but at least we have enough oil and can feed ourselves.
The US has a pretty good idea of what OUR reserves are. I don't trust our national intelligence capability to have a clue what the enemies reserves are.
It will be a short war because we won’t have anything left to fight with. That’s the whole premise of this post. We don’t have the numbers of ships, and we don’t have the capability to repair them. We don’t have the numbers of weapons we’d need to wage a long war. And we don’t have the capacity to build them quickly.
And we have to support a ~7000 mile logistical chain. China has a ~100 mile logistical chain.
This means either we win quickly or we lose quickly. If our ships and weapons can turn away or sink an invasion fleet and remain a threat to do so, we win.
If we have to wait years to build ships and missiles, it won’t be worth fighting because the Chinese will be entrenched on Taiwan and it seems infeasible to make wait years and then mount a D-Day style invasion against a hardened enemy.
I was going to say something along these lines. if it happens tomorrow and we go to war with what we have, it will be over in weeks because we simply will have no material to fight with and no industrial capacity to build more.
For example, Paparo described flyaway repair teams that could meet battle-damaged ships for repairs, “including equipment that can be transported to the point of need to execute those repairs quickly and to get units back into the fight,” he said.
As this institutional memory has rapidly faded, for those interested, take a look at this oral history with Robert Green to get some first hand memories of WW2 floating drydock operations in the Pacific. You can jump to the 51:45 point to skip over his early career and get straight to the docks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iUbimis6go&t=3098s
An EDM is very different from an AFDM - and of course, back in the day, we had multiple versions of both. In 1958 (well after WW2), we still had [in the Battleforce, Fleet Support, Tender/Repair category] 49 ships: 15 destroyer tenders (AD), 6 repair ships (AR), 4 cable repair ships (ARC), 4 internal combustion engine repair ships (ARG), 2 repair ships (small) (ARL), 6 submarine tenders (AS), 5 seaplane tenders (AV), and 6 seaplane tenders (small) (AVP). And this in a Navy with only 407 combatants. Note the eleven (11) seaplane tenders!
While we only had two salvage lifting ships (ARSD) in service, we did have 13 salvage ships (ARS) and 10 submarine rescue (ASR ships, plus 30 Fleet Ocean Tugs (ATF).
The US has not been ready to fight any war it entered. The problem now is that you can lose very, very quickly now. If the navy goes in with what it has now, it is likely to find it lost before it can wind up any industrial capacity to fill the gaps as happened in 1942-45.
Even if we had the same lead-up to all out war we had in WWII, I doubt that we could ramp up civilian production to produce more ships, more ships engines, more ships electronics, more ships guns, more aircraft, more tanks, more wheeled vehicles, more ammunition, more uniforms, more MREs, more, more, more, more....
The USMC has been short of clothing-bag uniform items since the start of COVID. In the mean time the US Army has changed their uniforms twice, and the US Navy has changed their utilities at least once? Just clothes.
We don't mine the REE's needed for building turbine engines, or building electronics. We don't have a strategic petroleum reserve (the level has never been this low since they started filling it). We are flat out of 155mm Artillery shells, RED (minus) on air defense missiles, MANPADS, ATGMs, small arms ammo. We don't even have domestic sources of drugs, or drug precursors.
Can’t massively influence or expect the current US military aged generation to step up to the plate. Too much cultural war damage has been inflicted and they are literally not fit for combat.
Turn your thinking around. More kids now have been shot at or have been taught to be prepared to be shot at than at any time in our nations history. I'd focus the angst that probably causes before it finds something more nearby to focus on.
Now take a look at the county level data. Almost every metropolitan area and collar county is at average, or more likely below. If your children are in college or public k-12 in these areas, they are likely being taught to hate America specifically and Western Civilization colonizers in general. Utah Mormons and Minnesota/Michigan madrasas notwithstanding. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f6/Americans_under_the_age_of_18_by_county.png
"More kids now have been shot at or have been taught to be prepared to be shot at than at any time in our nations history"
I'm not sure we can count on the gang members to be a fruitful recruiting pool, and outside of them, most suburban kids have never seen a gun, much less fired one.
Hey! Latin American gang members who walk across our borders and have their ticket punched as asylees, need a path to citizenship. What better way than a hitch in a uniformed service to put their experiences to good use for the nation they love. I'm sure they would no more lie on their enlistment papers than they did on their forms claiming asylum. /sarc (for the sarc impaired)
I think the only counter to that is the damage we also can inflict on Chinese shipyards and supply on their mainland. That has to happen. The result will be a years long stalemate of limited engagements (unless they go nuclear with an EMP or massive successful cyber attack and 5th Column guerrilla warfare in CONUS) as each side hastily rebuilds their fleet. We will be punched backwards on our heels in the first hours and days.
We need some real thought on how to do what they won't expect. Not a real idea, but take Hainan for instance. More practical, be ready to sink their lift capacity and to mine their ports of embarkation, like the ferry loading areas for the Hainan crossing.
Yeah, but who has a bunch of loose mines, ways to deliver them, and maybe some folks to plan how and where they get laid, and folks to build them up and ready for planting? Then how to do it sneaky or in opposed waters.
And, remember the enemy may very well want to do the same to us- what do we have to cope with that? Anyone? Buehler? Anyone?
You don’t lay mines unless you want to commit an act of war. People don’t seem to understand that while mines appear to be defensive, the employment of naval mines is actually an offensive and overt act of war.
It's a good question. Because of both parties, we have no idea. We can safely say the number is large, but I don't think they have gotten the numbers for 3 field armies as one site I frequent has said. The problem for the US is that China does not need to "take" the Us. It only needs to neutralize it. With the numbers that seem to have entered, and the fact that weapons smuggling has been uncovered several times, they probably have the numbers in needed to neutralize the US many times over.
I believe that 100,000 is more than a reasonable possibility. Call it one Field Army. And prior to the kickoff of the war, China could stage another FA or two in Mexico without too much difficulty.
And staging a few brigades worth of troops off San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle? Easy-peasy. China has the largest merchant marine fleet in the world, and it's all dual-purpose military gear.
A field army is about 250K, so if 100K have entered they aren't at the halfway mark on one FA. Transportation is a serious problem when going through Mexico. I think neutralization is the goal as it takes far fewer troops, and it yields what they need in their home theater.
I don't see why they would bother fielding an army to fight. After they kill power and other infrastructure and watch us starve for several months they might constitute that army for occupation duties.
It will be even easier for them if they can get our Uniparty stooges to send a bunch of our actual fighting forces back to Europe to fight Russians first.
What isn't mentioned is the lengthy process of in order to acquisition a contract to make those repairs. Today's politician will waste an incredible amount of time being lobbied to support the contract acquisition process, meanwhile our damaged ships will sit at idle waiting to be repaired.
We always act as if the USN will operate in alone. In a Pacific War we will probably have Taiwan, Japan, Australia, S. Korea, and the Philippines on our side. Many of them add significant naval capability as well as repair facilities. I think, at a minimum, we should consider the possibility that USN ships will be able to be repaired in those countries.
All the port and repair facilities in those areas will be wrecked by Chinese Missile Barrages on Day 1, 2, 3, and 4. We are going to have to go out to the Second Island Chain or Australia to build defendable bases.
That’s always possible, but I think the PRC will want to keep the war as limited as possible. Shooting missiles at home countries is a bad idea. With an economy dependent on exports and imports of oil from far away, China cannot win a global war, and they know it.
They won’t limit the war. They know they have one shot to defeat us. They will attack with every thing they can muster. Total war is their doctrine. No half measures and no restraint.
They will get whatever they can get using minor tactics right up until it gets them no further, then yes.
Agreed. If conditions and timing dont permit hitting the fwd CVBG at sea, theyll do it in port. The amount of capability in Japan cant be ignored. So whether the Chinese are keen on it or not, Japan gets hit. If we place worthy targets in the Philippines, so do they. Guam gets plastered, and any other smaller states who have given us basing or other significant assistance will too. The amount of damage, havoc, and advantage that a suprise attack gives the Chinese is too much to ignore. A blockade that allows us to get the fwd CVBG to a position of safety isnt a wise move at all. Sure, they can maybe hit it later, but why not whittle down ALL the local military threats from all the countries in one moment? Id bet a whole meager paycheck that the first word we hear of war breaking out will come from a damaged (or worse) CVN...
They won’t go for a blockade at first. Unless they tee it off as another exercise, which is likely. They will take their best swing at us first and then Taiwan will go down without a fight.
It’s 2am and 24 missiles just appeared 30 miles off San Simeon. How are the air defense at Lemoore and Vandenberg?
Shhh that would never happen. Why? Never happened before.
China isn’t capable. China only wants Taiwan. Blah blah.
Stop
Thinking
Like
A
Warrior.
You are correct, as usual. So for us, as individuals, we who sit in public places with our back to a wall, facing the door. We who stock food, medicine, and sanitary supplies in our homes. We who have a secure water source. Honestly, in your personal opinion, is there anything we can do, collectively, to strengthen our defense as a nation? Is there anything we can do to stop our government from borrowing 10 billion dollars every day? I encounter young people every day, and I encourage them to strive, and to succeed. Honestly, my friend, what do you think we might could do?
Fully up to date on their DEI requirements!
What? No "graduated response" to send a "signal" that we are serious ?
Look at their capabilities, not their presumed intent (this week).
Honor the Threat
Recent PLA post:
“If the United States intervenes in the conflict with China over Taiwan, Beijing is capable of striking 330 American military bases within the first island chain within the first 10 hours. The number of American casualties will reach from 100,000 to 200,000, and hundreds of thousands of Japanese military personnel will also die” - Chinese professor Li Yi
Civilian casualties would be even higher. The enemy does not share our morality.
As long as the workers are left to load ships, the enemy doesn't care
Pretty sure we number less than 100k in theater.
I think they are also looking outside of the first and second island chains.
They have the capability to attack a hell of a lot more than that.
If they are willing to do this I can't imagine they'd leave their sleepers CONUS uninvolved. I'd image significant infrastructure hits here as well.
Depends on their war aims. They might just use their agents of influence to delay and minimize US response until all aims are met in a limited war.
You are expecting them to act rationally. A rational actor would not attack Taiwan or the US at all: Rationally their best course of action is to allow Taiwan to be overtaken by leftists like the US has been
But even If we assumed thats inevitable, when might that be?? Is the CCP willing to wait that long??
No. Because they are not RATIONAL actors. If they waited that long, their regime would collapse from internal stress. We cannot expect them to act rationally: That includes attacking mainland US with nuclear missiles. The threat must be honored, and we are living on hopium.
Agree that they wont wait. And I see what you mean about being irrational, but at the same time, with the exception of contemplating war, antagonizing neighbors etc. But if you look at the grand scheme and their long term goals, theyre being quite methodical and rational in the various steps theyre taking towards those goals. Our assessment of rationality has to be done in the context of what they want to see in 2024, 2030, 2040, 2050, and beyond. We cant hardly focus past the next election cycle, so its difficult for us to objectively assess their actions. But Id say, they're not only NOT irrational, but rather well considered.
This. People look at the Chinese through a western lens. Very naive.
I'm not sure they will use nukes when they can do [perhaps almost] as much damage with sabotage to infrastructure and power grid without triggering a nuclear response from us.
No.
Western Aristotelian logic may not be applicable in the Far East or Middle East.
Plus nukes and carriers will need very unique repair facilities.
Given the geography of the islands i believe it's a relatively trivial exercise to bottle fleet elements in Guam by emplacing obstacles both in the inner and outer harbor jetties. This is especially true for the inner harbor. A suitably equipped trojan horse could cause enough midterm problems as to make Guam a humanitarian problem for the US and with luck remove a number of submarines and at least one of our two sub tenders from the equation for the critical early months of a war.
*cough*
https://missilethreat.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ChinaMissiles_Map_2020-scaled.jpg
That is a very fragile planning assumption that better have a functional and ready branch plan. If you need a decade to build what you need to execute that branch plan, you've already lost the war.
And they probably be dealing with attacks by China, North Korea or local Chinese proxy insurgents, or have the same structural blue water sustainment deficiencies as the USN.
You need to read "The End of Everything" by Victor Davis Hanson. The Chinese will not fight a limited war, they don't share our "we can't be so brutal as Hamas" moral philosophy, they've already threatened Japan if Japan assists with a Taiwan "skirmish", and a threat of "we will target you if you assist the US" strikes a lot of fear into S Korea, the PI, Australia and others.
With Phib’s permission, here is a link to my substack where I addressed this very issue a few weeks back.
https://mrts.substack.com/p/end-of-everything
You are always welcome to pimp 'yo stuff here. Plankowners of the Front Porch have such privileges.
By your leave.
Is there a plankowners list?
Not a nuclear ship or cvn. They have graving docks big enough but it doesn’t mean they have the draft or can handle the weight. Tankers, bulkers, bix ships launch very light in comparison. Same eeason a cvn can necer return to dock 12 after launch. Plus nukes need lots of gear to plug them in while in dock to keep the heart pumping.
Taiwan will certainly not be able to repair our ships - they will be under attack. The PI are unreliable at the present. S. Korea? China may make a deal with them to stay out, or more likely tell N. Korea to attack as a distraction. Or the NORKS may attack because they think it's a good idea with the US distracted.
Airlifting repair parts for a ship? With all respect due to the Admiral, how many sheets of hull plating does he think the US Air Force will be able to airlift in the already blocked out to the tricentennial C5s and C17's? Australia is a long way away to sail/tow a sinking ship.
But even robust recovery and repair capacity may not be enough - if they are destroyed on Day 1 of the war in their 'safe harbors' of Guam, Palau, Australia, even Pearl - a sunken ship or three off Hammer Point and the fleet is bottlenecked for weeks. Likewise fifth-column attacks on the Coronado Bay Bridge, or off Zuniga Point. And guess who runs the Panama Canal now?
South Korea certainly has the capability. They are the #2 ship building country for commercial ships. I think there's little doubt they would commit to assist repairs for allied ships at the very least, but their repair facilities are vulnerable to attack from China and North Korea. But that would require those countries to choose to attack repair facilities over other targets.
Still, the US alone has substantially more large naval vessels than China, even without its in theater allies. Most of the Chinese navy are small coast guard type vessels. And the US and our allies are likely to have near air superiority within a few days of full scale war if our carriers survive. China will lose a lot of capabilities very quickly, as well, so both sides will probably be in need of repairs and seeing massively degraded in theater capabilities within the first week or two.
Did you read all of my first 'graph, above? How much ship repair will they be doing if the Norks attack? If China preemptively destroys the shipyards?
And every year we go without the war starting, the US Navy gets smaller and less capable, and the PLA-N gets better and bigger ships. How many billions of dollars has the US wasted on DDG(x), CG(x), and LCS? On the Ford-Class (when they are still not micap)?
One can blow a lot of ordnance taking out a shipyard unless you hit hose graving dock gates, sink the floating docks, etc. This is where small could be very handy. Things we can get in and out of the water with marine railways and marine travel lifts. Might be good to play around with how the Seabies can set those up in an expeditionary fashion.
Sure. And hitting close enough to count is not that hard with todays PGMs.
Other great targets: Power stations. Flammable storage areas. CBUs over areas with lots of people in them. The big cranes. Just off the top of my head.
I'm sure that the Chinese have grid/GPS coordinates of every important target thru at least the first island chain.
The South Koreans are masters of robotic welding, shaping bulbous bows, modular assembly, etc. however a container ship or a cruise ship are not warships. I am not sure what it would take and in what time to transition shipyards form civilian to military use.
Those military aged males that have popped through the border couldn’t possible have been mustered with the non existent Chinese “police stations”. Nope.
I'm certain they're all after a better life, as are we all
If we have a war in WESTPAC Taiwan may be the center of the party. China has been making inroads in the Philippines, if things don't change there what side will they come down on? Nukes worry me most.
A T-ESD modified into a heavy lift ship would require removal of the lanes for LCACs and the vehicle fuel and handling deck, and moving the deck fittings mounted for the ballasting system. It’s practical, but would require either new construction or removal from service of either ESD.
We’ve wasted time and treasure, and there are hungry tigers ridden by authoritarians about.
I thought the Expeditionary Transfer Dock would be a better option than the Army Pier at Gaza. Run LCACs to the Beach with the supplies when needed. No fixed Pier. But LCACs would have put US "Boots on the Beach" when we already know that what we built required "Boots in the Surf" or people in the water.
That is a hirde if gas and maintenance for lfew supplies on beach relative to a humanitarian releif effort.
We all know there were better options, than a US Army JLOT pier for Gaza, the no-boots on the beach and the micro-managing of optics, hamstrung the entire idea. As pointed out in the most recent Midrats Melee...this stuff ain't classified, sooner or, later we're going to find out who's bright idea this was, what options were even considered and who amongst the brass nodded obediently rather than throwing down their stars in opposition. Gotta get through the Afghan/Kabul inquisition first....
All of that gear was added to the ship in Portland after delivery from NASSCO. I have to think removing it will be no harder. I think the challenge is whether the deck was designed to support the weight of ships and can the ship actually submerge deep enough. The draft lines on the deck show only 9 feet and that appears to be what was tested in sea trials from other on line photos.
and not a single fo/go or ses will be fired or lose pension/benefits or do jail time.
if only we had the ritual of seppuku as an alternative. not realistic, of course, because it requires honor and shame. neither of which have been present in a majority of our fo/go pop since probably 1783.
Poison berries, or a room with a bottle of cognac and a revolver with one bullet...
I was one of hundreds working on the Battleship Texas Restoration Project and what was really the "rate limiting step" was the lack/unavailability of a Dry Dock on the Gulf Coast that could handle a 570 foot long, 27,000 ton, 110 year old ship. There were contingency plans for an Open Ocean Tow from Galveston to Mobile or Tampa which would have been an "adventure" for the onboard DC and Pump Crews.
The lack of Dry Dock and Repair Facilities on the West Coast and in the Pacific will play a major role in a War with China. Either the US has to "reinvent" the logistic and repair bases we had in Micronesia during World War II or pump massive amounts of funding into infrastructure in Australia which might have political problems over here.
Guam used to have dry docks in the 90s. Not anymore.
Just like the Maritime Pre-Position Squadrons, this type of Infrastructure is an East Target for Budget Cuts in Peacetime. But when you need them, you need them and you are in Bad Shape if you don't have them ready and available.
These cuts are Not “Budget Cuts” they are deliberate disarmament from the fifth column inside our political class.
The political class has different priorities. You can build a lot of abortion clinics for the price of a frigate. Remember midnight basketball?
Last I checked that frigate will need a lot of young people qualified to serve on it. I grew up in the country. I had plenty to do without bumping into or up against other people. Most people aren't that lucky.
You seem to have problems putting a thought into coherent words.
Diego Garcia is certainly within the PLA-N's weapons basket, too.
We (as a nation) are not serious about war. If you tour the engine room of a WW II vessel, there is a pad-eye above every piece of machinery, and a series of pad-eyes to transfer it to the nearest hatch, for rapid removal and replacement. We no longer have that. To change out a pump these days, you first have to weld in a stiffener, and a pad eye. Then you need to wrestle it out of the engine room, because we do not have that series of pad-eyes. There are also no hatches. You need to cut open the hull, or a couple of decks, to remove and replace machinery.
Similarly for our land-based vehicles and equipment, field repairs are ancient history. If just one component fails, the vehicle needs to be retrieved by a larger vehicle, or else abandoned. We no longer have robust, field repairable equipment.
Unless we use our superior air power, to deliver death from above, the bad guys might could win.
True, but we are serious about diversity.
Pete, You are so right! I'm not sure how we got everything so wrong. I have read a lot of your comments. What do you think about this:
The Destructive Generation—Proving America’s Weakest Link
https://victorhanson.com/the-destructive-generation-proving-americas-weakest-link/
I love VDH.
If you watch the Devil’s Speech from A Man for All Seasons you will hear Sir Thomas More warn about what happens when you cut down all the laws in order to get the devil.
In this case, the people will soon figure out that the law is just a weapon and will act accordingly.
But the people in power don’t care. They staged a coup and they have no intention of ever relinquishing power. I suspect Trump’s plane will be blown up or he will hang himself in his cell on Rikers Island
I tremble for my country when reflect that God is just - A. Lincoln
Timely speech, is it not?
If they do that it will be all over. I don't know if the bubble will go up in 5 minutes, 5 months, or 5 years, but if they kill President Trump in his cell, might as well call time of death on the First Republic.
The republic ended the morning after election day 2020 when all the states where Trump was leading turned blue.
You just didn't get an official notice.
The Deep State was not going to let Trump pull another inside straight as he did in 2016.
We live in East Germany, comrade.
I predicted the exact state by sate election result several weeks beforehand, signed and dated. Quit your BS and research elections. Large urban and underserved take more time to count. Its been that way whether its a mayor Daily or a Desantis.
And my uncle died January 6th of Covid so you can either learn to suffer in silence until you are buried in a traitors grave or are properly resworn allegiance to the nation. Then get working on ways to make it better. I never hear one of your ilk with any decent amendments to improve how the entire thing runs. Its always tear the whole thing down and/or Jesus Jesus Jesus.
far too true
We need to redefine the floating dry docks and support ships - not 'repair' ships, RECYCLING ships! Do it for Gaia!
To be fair, are we serious about anything that matters anymore?
Why are we not ready? Look at the 7 billion dollar disaster of the FFG program. Six years in and only a budget deficit and some welded steel to show for it. The idea was sound: buy an existing design, stick US weapons and sensors on it, keep most of everything below the weather deck and build em fast and cheap(er) - although not by much - than a Burke.
So what did they do? Made it longer, wider, deeper and heavier and changed the power plant and reconfigured every internal space (that we know, because they still haven't finished the drawings!).
Is this just pork barrelling at its worst? Is this institutional pushback against a "foreign" design competitor? Does navy and industry want to build more Burkes and so are killing the frigates on purpose?
On the subject of repair ships, the US lacks the industrial capacity to get these things built and delivered fast... but South Korea doesn't. While the British yards were tied up with building carrier blocks and then frigates (should have got their design instead of FREMM) they got their new replenishment ships built fast and cheap by Hyundai Heavy Industries and then brought them home to fit out, which didn't tie up a slipway.
Why can't the US do that?
Oh yeah... pork.
Another fallout from free trade. So much cheaper to build ships and make steel in foreign countries.
The steel is a big part of it. Steel is cheap and air is free, but their air and steel are both cheaper than ours. It adds up. Plus American sourcing for every little thing wastes money, time and then more money because time is money.
Steel is not a little thing. Cheap imported steel may proved to be very costly.
It’s not like it’s a problem that the nearest “west coast” steel mill is in Texas, right? The only west coast plate mill in Portland, owned by Russians.
That’s predictated on if we can have the transport capability to move steel and material to repair to a forward port suitable. China has done a lot of preparation of the battlefield. See New Caledonia riots against the French colonial government.
And Labor Unions and Defense Contractors
We are killing ourselves by aiming for perfect instead of good enough and then improve
Problem with South Korea is they are inside Chinas kill chain. I don’t see their facilities withstanding missile bombardment from China & NK.
They're not bombarding them, yet. US yards seem unable to fulfill needs right now. Handing a juicy contract to a foreign yard might wake some up (although in reality, it is more likely to line the pockets of professional lobbyists then it is the pockets of welders and fabricators).
I think not only pork. There is a level of malfeasance to our lack of military preparation that goes beyond simple incompetence and venal politics.
Any initial kinetics will be shellshocking. Most Americans have never been punched in the face or even understand what true adrenaline under pressure feels like. As I have said before, the Chinese will strike first and the normalcy bias will lead to inaction. The INDOPACOM and 7th Fleet watch floors will be stunned and paralyzed as they see hundreds of PLB’s from our aircrews and dozens of reports of ship impacts across the entire region. The stress those battle watch captains will endure is so overwhelming it can’t be described in a sentence. The sense of helplessness as our fleet is damaged and our aircraft are destroyed and our information is unreliable at best or not even available.
Now transpose that in an order of magnitude to our civilian leadership.
We need the military force necessary to immediately get back into the fight and restore dominance and get the information flow back. The ship repair proposal by Admiral Paparo is simply not realistic. We need the capacity at Pearl, Bremerton and San Diego as well as Long Beach and Los Angeles. We need the capability in San Francisco and protectable harbors. We need the trade skills. Most importantly we need a plan. We lack a plan.
We can't even recruit enough warm bodies to enlist, much less train them to warfighting standards. But hey, those few sailors that we do have? They're very up to date on their preferred pronouns.
I disagree. The DOd and it’s political class doesn’t have the ability to recruit.
Get back to why people volunteer for the Armed Forces and you will increase recruitment. Get back to industrialization & providing guarantee of long term employment for those who don’t look to go pay for a gender study or X Studies degree & those repair yards will be full.
Hey now. I am sure 80 year old presidents are the best at not being paralysed when this will happen.
Sigh, US needs a change of guard.
A couple of men named Short and Kimmel, and their staffs, can tell you about the stress of helplessness when you are being attacked.
A dude named Lloyd Fredendall, too. Had his engineers building a Taj Mahal command post in the wrong place while his troops were being overrun
Concur. And they didn’t rely on an instant operational picture and global communications. We will be fighting blind and without a plan or sadly the resolve.
China has a demonstrated ASAT capability - and is launching their own LEO/MEO navigation satellites
Richardson could tell you about what happens when you point out to the National leadership that they are sleepwalking into disaster.
China does not want a world war, they want Taiwan and the SCS. More likely they will blockade Taiwan, then dare us to break it. The Japanese learned what happens when you pull a sneak attack.
Problem is...there will be no. "Arsenal of Democracy II". Replicating the capabilities that built (and repaired) everything in almost unimaginable quantities is a daydream at best.
Yep. Our magazines are not capable of a sustained war in their current state.
Disagree. They want Nk prepared to invade the South; RUS secured in holding UKR and prepared to invade NATO; & Iran ready to unleash havoc in the ME & Med.
This is part of their escalation ladder to ward off the US and the West.
You haven’t been paying attention to anything the Chinese have done in the last 10 years. You claim China only wants Taiwan as if that is somehow something we should simply accept and plan only for. Yea I remember Hong Kong a while back….
China has stated clearly and unambiguously that they desire dominion and that the United States and its influence is in the pass. WTF do you think Darfur crisis was about? Myanmar coup? South African government change towards China? Chinese Belts and Roads literally everywhere including the Caribbean islands of Antigua, Bahamas and South America? China will most certainly blockade Taiwan, but it will be after they punch us in the face. Once we tuck our tails and retreat to the eastern pacific, Taiwan will fall without a shot. But that’s in the most cheapest COA. I expect China to attack us wherever we can be found and that includes CONUS, Panama Canal Zone, and our pacific islands. Including, our Allies, Japan, Philippines and Australia. You can subscribe to your beliefs of Chinese intent but no offense intended: it’s very naive.
That seems to negate divide and conquer as well as know he enemy and know yourself. Although they do seem hell bent on not dividing and conquering in the big sense.
The lack of auxiliary ships be they heavy lift semi submersible or anything should be no surprise. When you neglect every aspect of the maritime world from shipyards to merchant ships do you think anyone will invest in dry docks?
I'm afraid we Americans still do not seem capable of learning history or its lessons from the past when it comes to national security. After America's unwillingness to properly assess Germany's unleashing of unrestricted attacks on neutral shipping that killed hundreds of Americans and other provocations that got us into WWI, escalating Japanese hostilities for a decade culminating in the Pearl Harbor attack that got into WWII, Al Qaida’s declaration of war in the 1990s that went unresponded to until 9-11 got us into the GWOT, and now the cyber-attacks, intellectual property theft, and many other provocations by the CCP for over two decades, our political leaders and those who elect them still appear incapable of getting serious about addressing and preparing to confront the emergent foreign threats facing us all. Instead, they continue to believe that "hope is a strategy" where they play a game of national security "hot potato" hoping to pass on the mess they failed to fix and reach retirement before it all unravels knowing that they are unlikely to ever be held accountable once they have passed the mess to someone else. Until Americans start informing themselves about the foreign threats emerging around the world and start holding failed leadership accountable for gross incompetence and dereliction of duty, we are likely going to have to lose a lot more American lives yet again before people decide to wake up. Unfortunately, we likely no longer have the timelines of the past that allowed us to build up and deploy an effective response... and a war over Taiwan will be an existential threat to either the CCP’s unchallenged control over China and rise in the World, or U.S. credibility as the World’s guarantor of freedom and security against tyrannical regimes and ideologies.
"I'm afraid we Americans still do not seem capable of learning history or its lessons from the past when it comes to national security."
First, they have to have the opportunity to have been taught history. Not sure that is being done in high schools and colleges today. The media certainly avoids historical perspective in the platitudes spouted by the commentariate class.
Very true. Even with the greatest of access to information in human history, most people are more ignorant today than when we all had to rely solely on libraries, magazines and newspapers. Additionally, critical thinking skills have been attacked by the same party that banned black literacy in many states during the first half of this country's history.
“The only thing that we learn from history’, it has been said, is that men never learn from history.” Sir John Glubb
My favorite headlines from the COVID mess revolved around how "Critical Thinking" is a bad thing
They are taught Marxists DEI LGBTQ history. They can tell you all about Harvey Milk, but nothing about George Washington.
"Our political leaders and those who elect them still appear incapable of getting serious about addressing and preparing to confront the emergent foreign threats facing us all."
At some point a century of incompetence may be evidence of ulterior motives on the part of our leaders, and a desire to get into these conflicts. Beyond that, I no longer have any faith that they all truly elected, as opposed to selected and imposed upon us.
On the other hand we are leading the universe in terrorist-supporting pier construction and deployment (except in moderately high sea states). Heard today the cost of the Gaza pier was downgraded from $320M to a bargain basement cost of $230M. Would have been better spent on just about anything else including more floating dry docks.
Is the operation over? Is the Administration throwing in the towel? Otherwise, it is $230M so far.
It's fixed and back in operation. Keep rolling over those $$$ signs! https://apnews.com/article/us-pier-humanitarian-aid-gaza-israel-hamas-3db724ef590b4d056e81a1bac1b9c13f
In spite of being a gigantic fan of Commander Salamander, I strongly disagree a war in the Western Pacific will be a long one. That is NOT the conclusion of either PLA OR DoD Sims, nor of my own. Quoting one US general officer disclosing the results of a number of these classified games, "we lose simultaneously in all domains." Their doctrine (look up the Everest Series at CASI Publications) is to win quickly, exploiting the first mover advantage (meaning probably minimal warning of the fight - there are significant indicators in their planning they will give merchant vessels warning to leave the area, exempting only those who are on defined headings from attack for example).
Yes, that is the most realistic scenario. So what happens after "we lose simultaneously in all domains?" Will we survive as a weakened, less-prosperous country, or will the bad guys try to occupy and destroy us?
California surrenders. Invites Chinese peacekeepers in due to the states inability to stop the gang wars / race wars.
I suggest that a weakened U.S., with increased crime, drug-abuse, and social disintegration (even more than we have now) would not be a prize worth capturing.
As always, I could be wrong.
There are still a lot of resources here
The Schlichter option
You should get out more often. Play with our dolphins in the surf, climb a mountain, grab a bite to eat.
I was being snarky. A little.
CCP does not intend to give us a vote on the matter. The most elite school of the CCP (which has about 2000 colleges) is reserved for top leaders. A book written for it (alone) was written under the direct supervision of (and official authorship of) Xi himself. He declares the original intent of Communism was the correct one: world rule. In Xi's version, the goal is for a local Communist party to control each nation. But ALL of them are to be chapters of the CCP itself. Communist "negotiations" come with preconditions so severe it means, when you agree to show up, you ALREADY have de facto agreed you are negotiating the terms of your surrender. Suffer no illusions: Communists are quite serious about this sort of thing. They didn't build the world's largest military, and the world's largest industrial base, because they didn't intend to use them.
I think they'll kill power through most of our urban and suburban areas, and after several months of strong immoral people stocking less strong, perhaps more moral people for food, our greatly reduced population will attempt to establish some resistance against the international peacekeepers sent to "help" us.
I think you underestimate he average American's ability to resist being told what to do and make violence happen, generally.
I think I overestimated it until the COVID restrictions were tolerated
"I strongly disagree a war in the Western Pacific will be a long one"
Seriously?
As we count down to the 1000th day in Ukraine...
What war wasn't going to be short...
Until it wasnt?
US participation in WW2 was about 1300 days. UKR/RUS will exceed that shortly.
I disagree. Sustainment, and will to fight.
Will to fight after we lose 2-3 Nimitz Class CVN’s (Admiral Paparo’s “conservative” estimate) will be the main thing. The sky is falling, cowardly leftists will demand we sue for peace. Half of congress would vote for it. Shit show incoming.
They just need to fear those who want to fight on more. Again, if they force peace they will just birth a far right overthrow as a reaction to the betrayal. Pretty sure that has happened somewhere before.
The Han have been very open about this for decades...
They want to pay us...the round eyes who poisoned their great culture for greed...back in Spades.
They aren't out to annihilate us. They want us prostrate and subjugated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boPkMCJSYSs
Long vid worth watching in full (and very 'China friendly')
Cutting to the heart of the matter, start here:
https://youtu.be/boPkMCJSYSs?si=w8Z3KjHIUOCRNhlf&t=2540
The UKE/Rus war is a border war - with adjacent countries. That mitigates against ultimate warfare.
China v. US? Great Circle from (say) San Diego to Shanghai is 10, 600 km (6600 miles). Just getting from A to B is going to be time consuming
All the more reason any Sino US dustup will take much longer than many people think.
The US NEVER adopted ANY sort of plan to insure Ukraine would be a short war. Given that Russia is at least 14 times larger, it is amazing how well Ukraine has done. It is NOT in our interests to let the fuel and food cost impacts of this war continue. Even more, it is NOT in our interests to allow aggression of this kind not to result in clear, immediate defeat of the aggressor. Declare a limited objective - and act on it. Russian forces should be expelled by a coup de main, under an air umbrella.
The overall consensus when it started was that the Russians would get to their goals quickly, and force the Ukrainians to some kind of negotiated truce.
That hasn't happened.
But, lets go back in time to another example...
https://www.jstor.org/stable/45345874
The Illusion of a Short-War
Stephen Blank
SAIS Review (1989-2003)
Vol. 20, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2000), pp. 133-151 (19 pages)
Published By: The Johns Hopkins University Press
See the Russo-Japanese War in 1906. Russia was a "great power" and a European power - only the US was regarded as a power outside Europe in those days. It defeated the Russians decisively - twice at sea and several times on land. It committed its last reserves (those 55 years old) for the Battle of Mukden, and then implemented its war termination plan (one that won President Teddy Roosevelt a Nobel Peace Prize). I myself witnessed the 1967 Mideast War. [We were not officially there, but my technical advisory team did get a letter from the President of Israel - an office I didn't know existed - thanking us for our participation without saying why?] The U.S. got half the captured radar and missiles to perform technical evaluation, on condition we shared our analysis with Israel. Short wars are entirely feasible, and the only sort we should fight. I was trained that an opplan WITHOUT a clear path to victory should not be approved.
The Russo Japanese War lasted a year and alayer. I wasn't a one and done at Tsushima
The "Six Day War"...which I well remember...was arguably a campaign in a war that started in 1948 and is ongoing as I type 74 years later.
What price are you willing to pay in order to counter this aggression? Personally, I don't think Ukraine is worth a cent or the life of a Seaman Apprentice.
Where will the ship repair capacity come from? That alone proves it will be a long war. Unless we sue for peace in the first month after China threatens to nuke us.
If there is no ship repair capability, why will it be a long war? We'll have nothing to fight with in a few months.
Right?
What happens is either exert and maintain air and naval supremacy or we lose. If we have our CVBGs and AF sitting there and they take whatever the Chinese throw at us, and destroy their offensive potential, then we are basically in an unassailable position. It will take years for China to rebuild the forces they lost in the attempt, and they'd be doing so against a fully prepared enemy. Nobody is going to risk a heavily opposed amphibious assault when they don't control the sea or the air. And if they did, they'd be unable to resupply because... they don't control the sea or the air.
In that respect, it's fundamentally unlike Ukraine, where NATO and Russian can easily move into the war zone.
If we don't maintain that air and sea supremacy, then it's just the opposite. If we lose too many ships or planes, or we have to "retire" because we can no longer defend them (we run out of missiles before they do), then we are ceding months, at a minimum, to China to allow them to stop resupply to Taiwan, conduct their assault, and establish their own unassailable air and sea control.
By the time we are supplied to get back in the fight, the battle of Taiwan would be over. To continue the war at that point would mean something very different (launching our own reconquest) than the initial premise (staving off Chinese conquest).
I just can't see them giving us any chance to rebuild unless they really want to maintain us as a customer after the war. If it was me and tactical considerations only, I'd waste our power using agents in place and sit back to watch us lose half our population or more to starvation.
I agree. Both sides will have exhausted their missile magazines and stockpiles of smart weapons within months. One blessing of the war in Ukraine is that the West is building up its industrial base, but it won’t be enough for this level of combat. China’s export-dependent economy will collapse. It won’t be pretty for the rest of the world either, but at least we have enough oil and can feed ourselves.
The US has a pretty good idea of what OUR reserves are. I don't trust our national intelligence capability to have a clue what the enemies reserves are.
It will be a short war because we won’t have anything left to fight with. That’s the whole premise of this post. We don’t have the numbers of ships, and we don’t have the capability to repair them. We don’t have the numbers of weapons we’d need to wage a long war. And we don’t have the capacity to build them quickly.
And we have to support a ~7000 mile logistical chain. China has a ~100 mile logistical chain.
This means either we win quickly or we lose quickly. If our ships and weapons can turn away or sink an invasion fleet and remain a threat to do so, we win.
If we have to wait years to build ships and missiles, it won’t be worth fighting because the Chinese will be entrenched on Taiwan and it seems infeasible to make wait years and then mount a D-Day style invasion against a hardened enemy.
We and our allies greatly outproduce China in jet skis and recreational boats. We need a plan to harness that resource.
I was going to say something along these lines. if it happens tomorrow and we go to war with what we have, it will be over in weeks because we simply will have no material to fight with and no industrial capacity to build more.
You may be right, but war has its own logic.
Flyaway teams?
Where is the airlift coming from to transport these people...and more puzzling...the equipment they will require?
Where will they land west of Wake?
If this is the plan, let's just go full French and roll over early.
https://news.usni.org/2023/02/14/pacfleet-co-paparo-talks-combat-logistics-chinese-coercion
For example, Paparo described flyaway repair teams that could meet battle-damaged ships for repairs, “including equipment that can be transported to the point of need to execute those repairs quickly and to get units back into the fight,” he said.
He also doesn’t seem to address replacement crews.
I know there is alot of respect for him, but sure wish he would stop dressing like he is in the Air Force
..when he isn't in Army cammo.
Also, his statements in that article point to a systemic critical vulnerability in the way we look at war these days...
Gaming...and the belief that gaming reflects the realities of the next war.
In particular, the Marines are eaten up by that pox.
The LSM is the result of the contagion.
Actually, their unrealistic dreams of how the EABO will be sustained once the rounds fly smack of "paramaterization".
And come to think of it...
Adm. Paparo's remarks detach from reality around sustainment as well.
There aren't many people who have served in the US military even alive who had to fight a war in the midst of contested logistics
Can anyone recall an attack on an oiler...or any other UNREP ship...since the loss of the Mississinewa at Ulithi?
https://images.app.goo.gl/mhzGmq5vwHaTawcB7
The good admiral plans on slinging hull plating under Ospreys, perhaps?
As this institutional memory has rapidly faded, for those interested, take a look at this oral history with Robert Green to get some first hand memories of WW2 floating drydock operations in the Pacific. You can jump to the 51:45 point to skip over his early career and get straight to the docks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iUbimis6go&t=3098s
An EDM is very different from an AFDM - and of course, back in the day, we had multiple versions of both. In 1958 (well after WW2), we still had [in the Battleforce, Fleet Support, Tender/Repair category] 49 ships: 15 destroyer tenders (AD), 6 repair ships (AR), 4 cable repair ships (ARC), 4 internal combustion engine repair ships (ARG), 2 repair ships (small) (ARL), 6 submarine tenders (AS), 5 seaplane tenders (AV), and 6 seaplane tenders (small) (AVP). And this in a Navy with only 407 combatants. Note the eleven (11) seaplane tenders!
While we only had two salvage lifting ships (ARSD) in service, we did have 13 salvage ships (ARS) and 10 submarine rescue (ASR ships, plus 30 Fleet Ocean Tugs (ATF).
The US has not been ready to fight any war it entered. The problem now is that you can lose very, very quickly now. If the navy goes in with what it has now, it is likely to find it lost before it can wind up any industrial capacity to fill the gaps as happened in 1942-45.
Even if we had the same lead-up to all out war we had in WWII, I doubt that we could ramp up civilian production to produce more ships, more ships engines, more ships electronics, more ships guns, more aircraft, more tanks, more wheeled vehicles, more ammunition, more uniforms, more MREs, more, more, more, more....
The USMC has been short of clothing-bag uniform items since the start of COVID. In the mean time the US Army has changed their uniforms twice, and the US Navy has changed their utilities at least once? Just clothes.
We don't mine the REE's needed for building turbine engines, or building electronics. We don't have a strategic petroleum reserve (the level has never been this low since they started filling it). We are flat out of 155mm Artillery shells, RED (minus) on air defense missiles, MANPADS, ATGMs, small arms ammo. We don't even have domestic sources of drugs, or drug precursors.
Can’t massively influence or expect the current US military aged generation to step up to the plate. Too much cultural war damage has been inflicted and they are literally not fit for combat.
Turn your thinking around. More kids now have been shot at or have been taught to be prepared to be shot at than at any time in our nations history. I'd focus the angst that probably causes before it finds something more nearby to focus on.
Naw. They are taught to hate America at every opportunity by the leftists.
Looks like the states with the highest 18 and under percentage of the population are near exclusively red so that doesn't seem to hold water. https://www.prb.org/usdata/indicator/age18/snapshot/
Now take a look at the county level data. Almost every metropolitan area and collar county is at average, or more likely below. If your children are in college or public k-12 in these areas, they are likely being taught to hate America specifically and Western Civilization colonizers in general. Utah Mormons and Minnesota/Michigan madrasas notwithstanding. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f6/Americans_under_the_age_of_18_by_county.png
"More kids now have been shot at or have been taught to be prepared to be shot at than at any time in our nations history"
I'm not sure we can count on the gang members to be a fruitful recruiting pool, and outside of them, most suburban kids have never seen a gun, much less fired one.
You have to be kidding
Not at all. I'd imagine it varies considerably by region
Hey! Latin American gang members who walk across our borders and have their ticket punched as asylees, need a path to citizenship. What better way than a hitch in a uniformed service to put their experiences to good use for the nation they love. I'm sure they would no more lie on their enlistment papers than they did on their forms claiming asylum. /sarc (for the sarc impaired)
But we have global trade, donchakno?
I think the only counter to that is the damage we also can inflict on Chinese shipyards and supply on their mainland. That has to happen. The result will be a years long stalemate of limited engagements (unless they go nuclear with an EMP or massive successful cyber attack and 5th Column guerrilla warfare in CONUS) as each side hastily rebuilds their fleet. We will be punched backwards on our heels in the first hours and days.
We need some real thought on how to do what they won't expect. Not a real idea, but take Hainan for instance. More practical, be ready to sink their lift capacity and to mine their ports of embarkation, like the ferry loading areas for the Hainan crossing.
Absolutely.
Yeah, but who has a bunch of loose mines, ways to deliver them, and maybe some folks to plan how and where they get laid, and folks to build them up and ready for planting? Then how to do it sneaky or in opposed waters.
And, remember the enemy may very well want to do the same to us- what do we have to cope with that? Anyone? Buehler? Anyone?
You don’t lay mines unless you want to commit an act of war. People don’t seem to understand that while mines appear to be defensive, the employment of naval mines is actually an offensive and overt act of war.
Of the 10-million or so illegals that have crossed the border in the last three years, how many have been ethnic (Han) Chinese men of military age?
Great question
It's a good question. Because of both parties, we have no idea. We can safely say the number is large, but I don't think they have gotten the numbers for 3 field armies as one site I frequent has said. The problem for the US is that China does not need to "take" the Us. It only needs to neutralize it. With the numbers that seem to have entered, and the fact that weapons smuggling has been uncovered several times, they probably have the numbers in needed to neutralize the US many times over.
I believe that 100,000 is more than a reasonable possibility. Call it one Field Army. And prior to the kickoff of the war, China could stage another FA or two in Mexico without too much difficulty.
And staging a few brigades worth of troops off San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle? Easy-peasy. China has the largest merchant marine fleet in the world, and it's all dual-purpose military gear.
A field army is about 250K, so if 100K have entered they aren't at the halfway mark on one FA. Transportation is a serious problem when going through Mexico. I think neutralization is the goal as it takes far fewer troops, and it yields what they need in their home theater.
There are indications of this.
I don't see why they would bother fielding an army to fight. After they kill power and other infrastructure and watch us starve for several months they might constitute that army for occupation duties.
It will be even easier for them if they can get our Uniparty stooges to send a bunch of our actual fighting forces back to Europe to fight Russians first.
Has anyone asked how they got permission to leaver China?
They have tacit approval to “migrate”.
I think the cyber attacks and guerilla attacks, especially on infrastructure and power grid, are a given. I hope I am wrong.
What isn't mentioned is the lengthy process of in order to acquisition a contract to make those repairs. Today's politician will waste an incredible amount of time being lobbied to support the contract acquisition process, meanwhile our damaged ships will sit at idle waiting to be repaired.
How long has USS Connecticut (SSN-22) been waiting for repairs? Did it actually START repairs last year as planned?
Ouch