The assessment of COA A wasn't quite accurate. The US put a lot of pressure on Israel not to respond because it wanted to keep the Arabs in the international coalition. When it got too bad, Israel threatened to "solve the problem." That is when JSOC deployed with Delta to "Scud hunt" in Western Iraq. Schwatzkopf did not want us there, but Collin Powell interceded and directed our involvement.
So, like this time, there was US pressure and then the US did get involved in the response.
I read it, thanks. Perhaps a poor choice of words on my part.
Although I did not have access to the DC perspective, or Tel Aviv perspective, I was the EWO involved in the compartmentalized briefings and on the JSOC staff. Later on I briefed the JCS director of ops on the effort, and also was part of the 66 folks who wrote the Lessons Learned at CENTCOM for Desert Storm.
I can't describe what the Israelis finally said they were going to do (not sure it isn't still classified), but let's just say it was so severe (due to internal pressure in Tel Aviv) that Colin Powell personally intervened and we went from being told on Friday to "expect a complete stand down on Monday" to airborne en route to Northwestern SA Sunday night.
At the time we were specifically prohibited from even acknowledging we existed to outside forces. We had our own JOC, own HQ at Ar-Ar, and an alternate HQ in a fenced off compound within USSOCOM HQ in King Fahd. The 22nd SAS was also involved.
Thanks for the chance to comment and keep up the great work! The JSOC job may have been my most rewarding tour next to my command tours.
Israel is attempting to thread the proverbial camel through the eye of a needle (apologies to biblical scholars for mangling the poorly remembered metaphor). They have nukes, a western value system of morals (despite the "genocide" rhetoric from you know who), and tried to send a nuanced message to the Iranians, appease the U.S. and U.N., while keeping their Israeli citizenry safe. Iran has 7th century values, publicly desires to "genocide" the Israelis, and the United States if they could do it. What they don't have (yet) is nukes. Lost in this horrific mess is the question of how close they are to getting a nuke (and delivery system). The day Iran becomes the Middle East version of N. Korea, everyone's decision calculus dramatically changes. Thanks JCPOA, just what we all need...
"...publicly desires to "genocide" the Israelis, and the United States if they could do it."
They wouldn't stop with the US and Israel. If/when they complete that mission they will move on to the rest of the infidels on the planet. With only Muslims left the next step for Iran would be to "genocide" any Muslim that isn't Shia.
Aviation Sceptic: I'm with you. All this military theorizing ignores the stark lessons of history. When tyrants or tyrannical regimes say they want to kill you, believe them, and kill them first. By taking "measured responses" for decades, Israel allowed Iranian aggression to metastasize to Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Yemen, resulting in years of violent conflict, thousands of Israeli deaths, and billions of dollars of military expenditure, all while Iran continued--and continues, to work on nuclear weapons.
I expect the US put a lot of pressure on Israel for all those decades to take only "measured responses". The US should have taken the stronger responses, or let Israel do it.
Israel is preventing a lot of jihadists from achieving their places in paradise with its measured responses. I think this is highly appropriate on her part and urge Israel to strike much harder so the HAMAS, Hezbollah and Houthi warriors can enjoy their 72 virgins in gardens of pure delight.
Israel has shown, for several months, more restraint than I would have. Months ago during the constant barrage from Yemen, I would have drawn up a map of every military installation, radar installation, government office, and every hometown of every government official (where they may flee) in Iran. When that map was completed the bombing would commence. First Military installations and radar, then governmental offices. I might hold in reserve the hometowns. I have a extremely low tolerance for bullies. An aside note: we haven't heard any statements from the Abraham Accord signatories. I guess they didn't really expect to hold up any resistance to the perpetrators of the violence, just issued a pinky promise they wouldn't participate in the attacks.
The Arabs really hate the Persians, and put on a show of hating Israel to please part of their population. Getting them to shut up about Israel's defensive strikes was about all you were going to get.
I'm not clear what Mckenzie means by "false chimera". Does he mean the nuclear program is "all shirt and no trousers"? Or (whimsy aside), that it's mostly for show and bargaining power, and will never realistically result in a useable weapon? Because if that's what he thinks, a lot of organisations appear to disagree with him.
Mike: Mckenzie was trying to sound intellectual and he flunked. In the sense of his quote, a chimera is a fictional or mythological character or proposition. Other than in molecular biology or surgical/medical transplantion, there is no such thing as a "real" chimera.
Tankster: Israel has always had first strike capability and Iran knows it. I believe Israel was held back by two factors: (1) US pressure and (2) fear of a massive barrage of Hezbollah rockets and missiles, which would produce intolerable mortality, destruction of property and economic damage in Israel.
Aaron: Of the 12,000 rockets first thus-far, most were fired by Hamas, were un-guided, low-payload, and either fell in empty spaces, or were intercepted by Iron Dome. Of the munitions fired thus-far by Hezbollah, most have been been shorter-range, immediate cross-border, and not of strategic, "big picture" significance. Israel wishes to avoid at all costs a large-scale, WWI-style, multi-day Hezbollah barrage with heavier weaponry, targeting Haifa, Tel Aviv, and important military, infrastructure and economic targets. Hezbollah is believed to have over 150,000 rockets and missiles, with many capable of doing great damage in Israel's major population centers. Imagine 10,000+ rockets and missiles a day for two weeks.
The US has exerted extreme, widely publicized pressure on Israel and very little publicly noticeably pressure on Hamas. The US barely even mentions Hezbollah.
Hopefully it did meaningful damage, the Israelis were planning ahead a few steps, and targets were chosen that will enable those strikes in the future.
"That last point - and I’ll give credit to McKenzie as he seems to be slowly coming to terms with what really happened in Kabul (no, I will not let that go) - is, I believe, correct."
In this world of 'de-platforming' McKenzie deserves neither ink or, electrons for his results in Kabul. While I would've preferred to see Gen Miller toss his stars on the table out of principle and his background, McKenzie deserves a larger share of blame for the Catastrophe of '21
Is there any possibility that Iran set up their own generals as they were meeting with all the Iranian proxies.? Curious that they were all together and Israel knew where they were. Perhaps, there is a faction in the Iranian government that does not want a war. Just a thought.
Sal's last paragraph is very important. The US needs a Congressional Commission to examine the exact destination of all of the aid recently provided to both Israel and Ukraine. We seem to have learned nothing from the profligate and undocumented expenses across the Afghan conflict. None of that means taking away support for these nations, but the US public must know where those funds are going. The $61b appropriated for Ukraine this last week could make a whole lot of Virginia class subs, B-21 bombers, new frigates, etc.
You make good points, Lazarus, but I doubt the Congressional Uni-Party examining things (investigating itself) will yield any usable results. It is no longer a matter of "Physician, heal thyself". It's a matter of, "Physician, stay away from bawdy houses and street lizards."
Ongoing expenses in AFG. Why just today our government posted these two wonderful opportunities to teach the Taliban how to embrace women in their workforce. Yeah, it is only $1.5M but I can think of much better uses of my tax dollars compared to draining them through some NGO and into that mountainous outhouse.
The assessment of COA A wasn't quite accurate. The US put a lot of pressure on Israel not to respond because it wanted to keep the Arabs in the international coalition. When it got too bad, Israel threatened to "solve the problem." That is when JSOC deployed with Delta to "Scud hunt" in Western Iraq. Schwatzkopf did not want us there, but Collin Powell interceded and directed our involvement.
So, like this time, there was US pressure and then the US did get involved in the response.
Read the link provided.
I read it, thanks. Perhaps a poor choice of words on my part.
Although I did not have access to the DC perspective, or Tel Aviv perspective, I was the EWO involved in the compartmentalized briefings and on the JSOC staff. Later on I briefed the JCS director of ops on the effort, and also was part of the 66 folks who wrote the Lessons Learned at CENTCOM for Desert Storm.
I can't describe what the Israelis finally said they were going to do (not sure it isn't still classified), but let's just say it was so severe (due to internal pressure in Tel Aviv) that Colin Powell personally intervened and we went from being told on Friday to "expect a complete stand down on Monday" to airborne en route to Northwestern SA Sunday night.
At the time we were specifically prohibited from even acknowledging we existed to outside forces. We had our own JOC, own HQ at Ar-Ar, and an alternate HQ in a fenced off compound within USSOCOM HQ in King Fahd. The 22nd SAS was also involved.
Thanks for the chance to comment and keep up the great work! The JSOC job may have been my most rewarding tour next to my command tours.
It appears the proponents of stealth and SDI were correct.
Well, except in the case of LCS and the magical bubble trail!
They can always go back and hit the container cranes at Bandar Abbas some other day.
And the terminals and T-jetty on Kharg Island
Israel is attempting to thread the proverbial camel through the eye of a needle (apologies to biblical scholars for mangling the poorly remembered metaphor). They have nukes, a western value system of morals (despite the "genocide" rhetoric from you know who), and tried to send a nuanced message to the Iranians, appease the U.S. and U.N., while keeping their Israeli citizenry safe. Iran has 7th century values, publicly desires to "genocide" the Israelis, and the United States if they could do it. What they don't have (yet) is nukes. Lost in this horrific mess is the question of how close they are to getting a nuke (and delivery system). The day Iran becomes the Middle East version of N. Korea, everyone's decision calculus dramatically changes. Thanks JCPOA, just what we all need...
"...publicly desires to "genocide" the Israelis, and the United States if they could do it."
They wouldn't stop with the US and Israel. If/when they complete that mission they will move on to the rest of the infidels on the planet. With only Muslims left the next step for Iran would be to "genocide" any Muslim that isn't Shia.
So-called "Muslims" if you want to be technically accurate from their point of view.
Aviation Sceptic: I'm with you. All this military theorizing ignores the stark lessons of history. When tyrants or tyrannical regimes say they want to kill you, believe them, and kill them first. By taking "measured responses" for decades, Israel allowed Iranian aggression to metastasize to Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Yemen, resulting in years of violent conflict, thousands of Israeli deaths, and billions of dollars of military expenditure, all while Iran continued--and continues, to work on nuclear weapons.
I expect the US put a lot of pressure on Israel for all those decades to take only "measured responses". The US should have taken the stronger responses, or let Israel do it.
Israel is preventing a lot of jihadists from achieving their places in paradise with its measured responses. I think this is highly appropriate on her part and urge Israel to strike much harder so the HAMAS, Hezbollah and Houthi warriors can enjoy their 72 virgins in gardens of pure delight.
I would add that it might even be Islamophobic not to kill a jihadist.
Israel has shown, for several months, more restraint than I would have. Months ago during the constant barrage from Yemen, I would have drawn up a map of every military installation, radar installation, government office, and every hometown of every government official (where they may flee) in Iran. When that map was completed the bombing would commence. First Military installations and radar, then governmental offices. I might hold in reserve the hometowns. I have a extremely low tolerance for bullies. An aside note: we haven't heard any statements from the Abraham Accord signatories. I guess they didn't really expect to hold up any resistance to the perpetrators of the violence, just issued a pinky promise they wouldn't participate in the attacks.
Has the optempo decreased at all in Yemen?
It seems the Houthis have been somewhat distracted with the attacks disrupting world wide shipping.
I was more wondering if there was an immediate downturn since Israel did some urban renewal
The Captain of the Dali did more damage than the Houthis.
I'm not sure any ships headed into the port at Baltimore has had to divert around Cape Agulhas Africa. Just saying...
Apparently it has been a WHOLE six days. It will take much more than that for the insurance companies to take notice. https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/the-eu-s-red-sea-naval-mission-is-getting-smaller
What about the expenditures of the warships in the area? That's the metric I'm interested in.
The Arabs really hate the Persians, and put on a show of hating Israel to please part of their population. Getting them to shut up about Israel's defensive strikes was about all you were going to get.
I'm not clear what Mckenzie means by "false chimera". Does he mean the nuclear program is "all shirt and no trousers"? Or (whimsy aside), that it's mostly for show and bargaining power, and will never realistically result in a useable weapon? Because if that's what he thinks, a lot of organisations appear to disagree with him.
Mike: Mckenzie was trying to sound intellectual and he flunked. In the sense of his quote, a chimera is a fictional or mythological character or proposition. Other than in molecular biology or surgical/medical transplantion, there is no such thing as a "real" chimera.
Hi bill, thanks. I understand chimera which was why I found the phrase confusing. Am not familiar with Mckenzie so thanks for the clarification.
Agree. McKenzie tried to be more nuanced than he was capable of.
Correct. I was far too limited and shortsighted with my timeframe.
Israel proved it has first strike capability. They can launch all out and retaliation, such as it may be will be shot down.
Tankster: Israel has always had first strike capability and Iran knows it. I believe Israel was held back by two factors: (1) US pressure and (2) fear of a massive barrage of Hezbollah rockets and missiles, which would produce intolerable mortality, destruction of property and economic damage in Israel.
Aaron: Of the 12,000 rockets first thus-far, most were fired by Hamas, were un-guided, low-payload, and either fell in empty spaces, or were intercepted by Iron Dome. Of the munitions fired thus-far by Hezbollah, most have been been shorter-range, immediate cross-border, and not of strategic, "big picture" significance. Israel wishes to avoid at all costs a large-scale, WWI-style, multi-day Hezbollah barrage with heavier weaponry, targeting Haifa, Tel Aviv, and important military, infrastructure and economic targets. Hezbollah is believed to have over 150,000 rockets and missiles, with many capable of doing great damage in Israel's major population centers. Imagine 10,000+ rockets and missiles a day for two weeks.
The US has exerted extreme, widely publicized pressure on Israel and very little publicly noticeably pressure on Hamas. The US barely even mentions Hezbollah.
Fair enough. Best, Tank
Every once-in-a-while, some sort of over the top, horrific object lesson display of power is needed to remind the evil of their potential mortality.
I would say Israel made a good choice.
They did damage to the radar sites and airbase that protected their nuke plants.
Hopefully it did meaningful damage, the Israelis were planning ahead a few steps, and targets were chosen that will enable those strikes in the future.
I agree, they demonstrated they could blow the door open and hit something Iran doesn't want to lose.
"That last point - and I’ll give credit to McKenzie as he seems to be slowly coming to terms with what really happened in Kabul (no, I will not let that go) - is, I believe, correct."
In this world of 'de-platforming' McKenzie deserves neither ink or, electrons for his results in Kabul. While I would've preferred to see Gen Miller toss his stars on the table out of principle and his background, McKenzie deserves a larger share of blame for the Catastrophe of '21
Is there any possibility that Iran set up their own generals as they were meeting with all the Iranian proxies.? Curious that they were all together and Israel knew where they were. Perhaps, there is a faction in the Iranian government that does not want a war. Just a thought.
From your lips to God's ears.
A good question I don't have an idea of an answer for... lol
Sal's last paragraph is very important. The US needs a Congressional Commission to examine the exact destination of all of the aid recently provided to both Israel and Ukraine. We seem to have learned nothing from the profligate and undocumented expenses across the Afghan conflict. None of that means taking away support for these nations, but the US public must know where those funds are going. The $61b appropriated for Ukraine this last week could make a whole lot of Virginia class subs, B-21 bombers, new frigates, etc.
You make good points, Lazarus, but I doubt the Congressional Uni-Party examining things (investigating itself) will yield any usable results. It is no longer a matter of "Physician, heal thyself". It's a matter of, "Physician, stay away from bawdy houses and street lizards."
Ongoing expenses in AFG. Why just today our government posted these two wonderful opportunities to teach the Taliban how to embrace women in their workforce. Yeah, it is only $1.5M but I can think of much better uses of my tax dollars compared to draining them through some NGO and into that mountainous outhouse.
https://grants.gov/search-results-detail/353672
https://grants.gov/search-results-detail/353677
I hope that if those NGO's print and posters, hand bills or pamphlets that they do it on soft 2-ply paper so that the locals can make good use of it.
The Taliban... who just announced last month that they will resume flogging and stoning of women for "adultery".
Yes. Sending them how-to pamplets on DEI will improve *that* situation.
COA B is still available, as Iran may not take the hint.