Long time reader, first time commenter. The great unspoken question of what do you do when the materiel is expended holds equally true for IAMD. The strategy needs to include going after the archers as well as the arrows, and I don't see that happening.
The Drill SGT: Can't do that. California's Gov. Newsom says 2 cycle engines are bad for humanity. No more 2 cycle leaf blowers, generators and UAVs. Sorry.
Frak California. (Not frac as in fossil fuels, that' no-go too) Honda is spinning up a new small engine plant in North Carolina. The question is - could they get enough domestically sourced components to keep up their output of 2M engines per year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npCc_8cHF4g
Sicinnus: Right there with you. I live in CA and own a nice little Honda, gasoline-powered generator, for earthquake preparedness. CA wants to eliminate the types of "premium residential power applications" (mowers, blowers, generators) described in the linked video.
We know it is so you can keep you A/C running during rolling blackouts. It's okay. I'm sure enough of the Porch has spent time in third world countries to know how it goes. I won't tell.
What I was thinking about is growing our UAV tool set on the lower end of spectrum by getting some UKR IP. Targets? All those SCS atoll bases would seem to be nicely in range of PI launched low tech. Those atolls may have a small offensive punch but they are early warning platforms, same as all those white hull CCP CG cutters. I'm not talking about $100M Global Hawks but $10k drones powered by rice burner engines and a smart phone targeting brain
CDR Sal, happy labor day. From your article, the concluding and pertinent section: "So, with our industrial capacity only a fraction of what it was 85 years ago, and our allies’ industrial capacity in even worse shape…how would we find the capabilities we know we will need to push the fight?
Who, if anyone, would we be able to rely on? How? With what?
Do we abandon the field, or do we push the fight forward?"
Difficult for me to imagine the current administration fighting. A new administration with a different attitude might choose to fight, but given our current state of readiness (how many carriers are in the Pacific right now?), must win very quickly (preferred munitions stocks are...inadequate to need...) or lose, go nuclear (unlikely), or also choose not to fight. Our regional allies (real and imagined...Japan, S. Korea, Philippines...others to be named later) have to be squinting at the odds boards and constantly re-evaluating their decision calculus...back the side that ends up losing, or stay out of the fight and negotiate favorable terms with the new regional hegemon. OBTW, as the players continue to test each other, and we enter one of the most favorable weather windows for something "bad" to happen in the region, a mistake could trigger a cascading series of events that catches everyone by surprise. Have to wonder what that Malaysian patrol boat hit...uncharted undersea mount?
I think we see a very real chance of China going kinetic after November ( lkely between November and December) if Trump can stop the steal. China knows they will need to use the Biden ambiguity as the opportunity. It will be very difficult for Trump to stop the war at that point. He will have to fight. China will make a lot of inroads and damage during its 60 day headstart.
600,000 + ballots received and counted illegally in PA. Tens of thousands (at least) ballots stuffed into unmonitored drop boxes and counted illegally in WI. Tens of thousands of "ballots", many with duplicate images, more which cannot be produced for audit, in GA. Tens of thousands of "ballots" that cannot be produced for audit in AZ. Tens of thousands of ballots illegally received and counted in MI after hours.
Five states all stop counting app. same time election evening while Trump is up in a landslide. After the necessary illegal ballots are brought in, he somehow loses a squeaker by less than 44,000 votes spread across three states.
If the election is un-auditable and the results are not reproduceable with paper ballots, all of which have chain of custody known to be legal according to laws in effect at the time, the election is invalid.
Sorry but you are just Regurgitating the Same Concocted MAGA BS . Why was no Evidence entered in any of the Multiple Court Filings by the Trump Campaign ? Why are so many Trump Lawyers Under going the Disbarment Process or have already been Dibarred ? Why were so many Trump Lawyers Indicted in Various States ? Why did Multiple Trump Lawyers Plead Guilty in Georgia ? Those are FACTS . F A C T S . These Lawyers had every Opportunity to Defend themselves . & Yet they were Devoid of Facts when it was time to Swear on a Bible . I Guess they Did Not want to Play the Perjury Roulette Game ???
Perhaps its tiime some US Foreign Military Assistance funds were allocated to the RN to expedite installation of EM Catapults and Arresting Gear on the QE and the POW? After all we have some RN Aviators over here flying F/A-18s and F-35s in the Fleet and they aren't learning that skillset for nothing.
On the other hand, what about stockpiling kits to turn some of the boneyard planes into pilotless wingmen? The metal has already been bent, no long leadtime crew pipeline...
Will they? Piloting is now relatively safe because we haven't faced a peer air-force in a while. During WWII planes had a reputation as flying coffins.
Excellent history and "what if" scenario; all very apt, given that today is Victory Over Japan Day (may we never forget, although this Administration will give it a good leaving alone...)
As they say, history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. While your point is taken and it could happen - the WWII scenario happened due to the superiority in material, equipment (Zeros, more aircraft carriers, etc.), and experience (pilots) at the beginning of the war on the part of the Japanese. We were fighting against a superior force and new doctrine - rather than it being the other way around for the PLAN.
Some black swan, surprise terrorist attack on Norfolk and HII facilities? Maybe. Don't think it would be as bad as having 300 planes torpedo and bomb almost your entire surface fleet at the dock. And I think you are also assuming some combination of Chinese subs and DK missiles could actually hit the carriers at sea in these surface battles. I am sure you aren't thinking that Chinese surface action groups - or their carrier based air wings - could do it. Or has your opinion of the service sunk so low as to think them incompetent? Again, won't put it beyond them but it wasn't my impression - even with some of the retired very upset Flags I've spoken to.
You know Naval doctrine more than we do - do you think the Chiefs/Flags are going about it that way? I don't. I think they're sending the subs out for unrestricted warfare - chiefly against the Chinese boats first. Once they are pared back a bit, they'll go for the surface fleet. In addition, the Air Force will be tasked with long range attacks on the surface ships of the PLAN - from beyond their range to detect and interdict those strikes. But maybe they took out all our bombers, too, along with hamstringing the carriers? If we asked for anything from the Brits it would be to use their subs to restrict the Russians in their bastions so we could move more attack boats to the Pacific. I would also think that the Chinese would not be without losses and that their carriers and escorts would be depleted. So after, what, 5 battles you name - their carriers and surface groups all survive but ours are not just hit, but SUNK, taken out?
I think, too, the big deck amphibs would have a say in all of this.
Whatever their faults, and there are many, I think that the guys with all the gold leaf - some of them at least - know better and would fight the battle in a way that would surprise the Chinese. And you and me, hopefully.
A drone strike conducted by PRC infiltrators could wreck our bomber fleet as you only need to hit five bases with suicide FPV drones. That would take, what, a couple of cargo vans each to pull up outside a base perimeter?
Sure...go give it a try. One of the assessments of foreign intelligence about doing such things in the US is the snoopiness of our law enforcement. They don't think it would be that easy. First, you have to build all that stuff here - the racks in the cargo trucks to carry and launch the drones - and get the drones and create the explosives. Red flags going up when shipped to that newly purchased farm land through a Chinese front company. Then you have to have people to fly the drones fairly close - as there will be electronic countermeasures in place to interdict signals - you aren't running this from China via satellite datalink. So you have to have those folks around town near Whitman AFB for some time to prep all the communications and control equipment - and 50 or more military age Chinese guys hanging out is going to get attention.
It sounds easy, right? Just some enthusiasts out with a hundred or so drones carrying explosives to launch at a base?
I think you are way overestimating the competence of the government. And if drugs and people can be smuggled across our borders at an industrial scale then a bunch of DJI drones with small warheads would be no issue. There are plenty of Chinese nationals all over this country so a couple of guys driving a couple of vans isn't going to raise suspicion.
But it isn't just a "couple of guys driving a couple of vans". It takes workers building the stuff, people paying for materials, the materials themselves, and the operators of the equipment (First Person View - FPV - not AI). And just because drugs come across the border - or anything else - doesn't mean the government or law enforcement don't know about it. Some are involved in making it happen, yes, and others are keeping an eye out. But try to smuggle in the explosives you need. Done all the time, right?
Much of that can be done in the attacking country. Building, shipping, storing, and flying drones is perfectly legal in this country and is done every day. The only tricky part I can see is the fabrication & transport of the payload. It doesn't take a boatload of people; one person can do it depending on the number of drones required.
The trouble is if you are a Chinese illegal, male, military age and trying to do all of that on a farm bought by a Chinese front company. Don't think the intelligence agencies and law enforcement are all sleeping. The slickest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing people he doesn't exist, as the old saying goes, and the belief that our intelligence and law enforcement are inept works to their benefit. Not superhuman, but not asleep either.
You can do it from Mexico. Outside Brownsville and south of Tijuana. Say at 1am Saturday on some 3-day weekend. Do you think they will get an F-15 in the air before or after the first drone flies into the hangar bay of the carrier tied up at North Island? How long to arm, fuel and launch F-18s out of Lemoore? Vs the 2-3 hours for a swarm of flying lawnmowers to arrive?
"there will be electronic countermeasures in place"
Sure about that? Which frequencies?
" some time to prep all the communications and control equipment "
I think you overestimate the difficulties. A lot of the groundwork has already been done; see "drone light show", and "delivery drone" (example; https://www.manna.aero/,) .
Satellite, drone, or aerial photographs, maybe even in person reconnaissance; do the planning, programming, and rehearsals in <insert aggressor country here>,; buy or lease suitable launch site within range of target(s) (could be miles away); deliver pre-programmed autonomous drones to site using rental trucks; final assembly & checks at leisure; deploy drones at launch site at appropriate time, probably at night; send launch signal at zero hour; get in vehicle and leave before drones even reach target(s).
I seem to remember an exercise where we used a commercial aircraft in a racetrack pattern to provide targeting guidance to missiles. I think it was San Diego, the plane was just over the Mexican border, etc. It was picked up on radar and eventually queried/interrogated/planes dispatched in the exercise but then dropped below radar and escaped. Missiles were already on the way.
So, yes you can control drones from a plane. These are, generally, FPVs so you have to maintain connection - so be close enough to overcome last minute jamming. Use an AI drone swarm, if you can program it, and it becomes easier.
Sure, but if you're going to try that, it is just as easy to bring in one or two or three ships loaded with ammonium nitrate fertilizer and explode them off the piers than trying to disable multiple carriers and ships with FPVs carrying 50lbs or less of explosives. And, again, you have to have operators on the cargo ship that are giving off electronic emissions to control all those drones. Gonna set off a few sensors and draw some attention.
Just as easy to get a ballistic missile boat in range as it is to try to make all that happen with containerized cruise missiles and dual use electronics (in case they are inspected). If they're gonna try it, they know they best not miss. There are things built into the systems they might access for things like targeting from a Raider type ship that would mess with their program...that they may or may not be aware of.
Easier for a cargo vessel that’s already docked. China will astound the Normies when she goes kinetic. Her “popular war” and “total war” are legit threat axis. China has merchant vessels as a major asset in her upcoming naval war with the U.S. including Panama, Ports of Norfolk, Baltimore, NY, Houston, Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Look at the time lost when the gate at NASSCOs graving dock failed. We are now building 2 in the dock. Is the intermediate gate in place? Would it work in a catastrophic failure of the first gate?
When China goes kinetic, they will achieve the surprise they desire and their operators and crew will be martyrs. Our EW capacity as you mention is not available when the cargo vessel, with a shit ton of conex boxes that are capable of holding cruise missiles in battery, I’m referring to is literally docked half a mile from our carrier and big deck amphibs done the E river about 1/2 mile from pier 8 to pier 11. I can’t post the photos here due to the stack setup but you can do the research easy enough. We don’t monitor our sensors when the ships are pier side. So who is doing to detect a targeting emitter? As for FPV, China has already demonstrated the capability to monitor our ships in port. Look at Reagan recently in port Japan.
I think you're forgetting, or not aware, that NAS Norfolk at Chamber's Field is less than a mile east of the piers. And THEY are monitoring. Also only the top stack of commercial containers can pop up...the rest are buried. We do have systems that survey foreign flagged ships and can penetrate into cargo containers. Not to mention the GPS and manifest tracking for containers and contents.
No they are not “monitoring”. What watch floor is doing this and with what assets? I was a TAO on a Norfolk based aircraft carrier. I’m very familiar with this AOR and Chambers and Oceana. Your optimism doesn’t align with my experience. So there we are. Poo poo it at your own risk. I have pointed out a legitimate blind spot. I was also a force protection officer when our carrier was in
Dry dock at NNSY. We had very robust rules of engagement when we went into the shipyard but we didn’t have any sensors online for an asymmetrical missile attack. We held several discussions and tacex for that specific threat but the best we could was “low slow flyer”. Carriers and ships for that matter are very very vulnerable in port.
All good comments, but a thought with respect to "Don't think it would be as bad as having 300 planes torpedo and bomb almost your entire surface fleet at the dock."
One guy with a grudge, (or a different actual saboteur, I don't think we ever got the full story) started a fire that took out the BHR in San Diego. I suspect if the PRC decided the bubble was up, almost every ship in overhaul or extended maintenance would have similar issues, all at the same time, in every port. Even in the absence of our porous border, if they can get high level agents with Feinstein, Swallwell, and Cuomo/Hochul, there must be hundreds of low level sleepers in the yards and servicing our ships and aircraft.
True, but a lot of confounding aspects, the main one being that the automatic fire suppression system was disabled for repairs on the BHR. This won't always be the case. This is not to say they couldn't do something else and they are always probing base security, as we have seen.
Ranger had a different smaller power plant. IRC she also had issues with water distillation. Not ideal for long areas of operations without resupply. She was too slow for the fast carrier operations and her flight deck was too light to support heavy torpedo aircraft and the F6 Hellcat. She made it the pacific after a refit but arrived too late to fight the Japanese. She never saw pacific combat.
And she was a first in class with a lot of unknowns in class and even basic aviation as her aircaft were biplane and light weight for her design and commission.
Ranger CV-4 suffered a lot from being a first try. Wasp CV-7 was a much better ship on the same tonnage as Ranger (we had figured out what we wanted with the Yorktowns). They were both more vulnerable than the Yorktowns, as protection had been sacrificed to squeeze under the treaty limits - but Wasp could still operate effectively as a fleet carrier and Ranger could not.
Yorktown bought a lot of time and acquitted herself extremely well. Two battles. Major outcome. Hornet fought valiantly until she went down. Enterprise had a very astute captain and a well trained and experienced and motivated crew. Her fighting spirit helped explain how she stayed into the fight for 18 months continuously until temporarily being knocked out in 43. She was soon back and stayed in the fight. I would submit she was the single most important asset in the US military arsenal until the major Marine Divisions and 12th Army divisions came on line in 44.
"After lifting off on what he logged as an “oxygen system test,” Reinburg circled at 33,000 feet over Japanese-held Palau, watching anti-aircraft batteries—useless over 28,000 feet—waste irreplaceable ammunition trying to hit him. After 35 minutes of fireworks, he returned to Peleliu with a disappointing cargo. The mixture was cold but not frozen (the squadron scarfed it anyway), a failure the crew chalked up to its proximity to the hot engine."
And, as always, much of this is a moot discussion without the logistics/heavy lift capabilities to support a war effort thousands of miles from home. Additionally, depending on the damage, CVNs may have to transit to Bremerton instead of Pearl. Finally, China will not have anywhere close to the resource constraints realized by Japan in WW2. Combining all this with our degraded industrial capacity (enabled by Congresses and administrations of both parties), I suspect the Indo-Pac region out to Guam will quickly fall under Chinese control. Hawaii? TBD. The American public did this to themselves.
We will face what will seem as insurmountable damage to our fleet. We will see the kinetics come to a stall as both sides try to develop replacements for repair capacity, berths for repairs, out right new construction and a work force of trade skills that will be needed to build new ships and aircraft. The hypothetical but historic situation described in the first paragraphs is noteworthy. However it doesn’t go far enough. Pearl will be out of commission, Panama Canal will be OOC and Bremerton will likely be out as well. Literally the only game in town will be Norfolk until we can get Mare Island and Charleston and Pascagoula back on line.
The war with China will be horrific in the first few weeks and months and the outcome won’t likely be decided for a decade. Yes it will take that long to rebuild our fleet and air forces.
Can't speak to Pascagoula, but MI and Charleston are pretty much converted to civilian business use at this point. It would essentially require razing these businesses and starting at ground zero to restart these yards. Better off expanding NASSCO in SD and the shipyard in Philly. If Bremerton is gone, however, that may imply that the entire West Coast is a non-starter from a repair and logistics perspective.
During the winter and spring of 42, the US military had carte blanch to seize or buy entire industries including towns and counties for war production. MI and Charleston will play ball.
Reacquiring the properties won't be the primary issue. It will be rebuilding from ground zero. I'd submit it will be easier to expand existing shipbuilding and maintenance facilities. However, this will be severely constrained by the lack of skilled labor in the shipbuilding trades, but just as critically, a lack of technology-based resources (e.g., the US currently produces only 10-15 percent of its semiconductor chip needs). The US will need to reconstitute a significant portion of its industrial base to wage war successfully, but this will first necessitate rebuilding the resources for these industries. This would be at least a 5 year requirement. By this point, China is entrenched in its new territories. Right now, the only way I see the US defeating China is if the government has the will to use strategic weapons, and sacrifice large portions of the civilian population when China retaliates in kind.
I don't think it's a will issue—besides, the companies and the federal government would be hiring, not municipalities or the states. The worker pool no longer exists. That's one of the reasons claimed by the shipyards for their inability to produce subs and ships on schedule.
Here is the argument for Alameda and Sparrows Point. I like this suggestion more than any I have heard. There is actually enough space at these 2 spaces without quite so much environmental impact. Affordability for the work force would be the problem. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/september/case-fifth-naval-shipyard
I love this idea, the more so since I grew up in Alameda. However I cannot see it working out. If I'm the Chicoms and I get a whiff of any idea the US is going to reconstitute a naval presence in the greatest natural harbor in the world, I'm going to drop a few million into the right politician's pockets to ensure that it never happens.
We can opine all we want about a surface navy that may or may not survive the first 60 days of a global conflict mostly fought along the lines of the Pacific and Atlantic theaters. But, it’s somewhat moot if the senior officers are not qualified to lead the forces necessary to even be sunk at the water line which of course they will be. One commenter said the American people did this to themselves and so they have, the outcomes very uncertain if China decides to launch multiple preemptive strikes. This said what is really in China’s self interest, not sure a hot war with a large trading partner with an already fragile economy is the best outcome for the CCP. Rather long and protracted bites at this and that island chain a deal with Taiwan, etc., allowing the sleeping tiger USA to continue to wallow in self pity and distractions of all sorts, whilst frittering away its independence and way of life. Ultimately the Chinese win and a degraded USA slumps off into the dustbin of history. It’s happened before to empires and will happen again. History rhymes.
If you lose the ships, and, if you no longer have the marine shipyards to rebuild them, let alone the time, manpower, or money.....................then falling back will be the only sound course, while the building of new, replacement, or alternative Navy ships will have to be done elsewhere, while subs hold the horde back as best they can.
Ships will be built In the heartland of the country to give them a depth of defense, since the coastal ports will be problematic. so, ships that can be built faster, at less costs, requiring less manpower to either build or man afterward. smaller and faster than the lost carriers and other surface vessels in order not to be worth targeting with tactical nukes; and more numerous, fielding smaller attack aircraft (aka "drones") to move forward...........and then, deployed directly from the heartland.
China will be bloodied as bad. Her shipyards will be destroyed and she will have to figure out how to beat us from reasserting our dominance. Lots of yolks will be broke. Lots. And it will be a total war with many of us recalled to active duty. That may be a very good thing.
Served aboard USS Hancock (CVA-19) 1973-75. Stood watch in CIC just 20 feet away from the place that kamikaze hit during the Okinawa Campaign. Even 30 years after, you could tell it was a serious hit. The scars were still there. Sobering for this 25-year-old kid. During that time we had a serial arsonist onboard, 4 fires that I recall, was on duty for 3 of them and got involved...an empty 5"/38 ammo handling room port side forward, refueling station starboard side forward, post office, a berthing compartment below the hanger deck. All were gotten under control quickly but were terribly frightening to me, a "novice" firefighter as an EW1. I think of that kamikaze now and know we had it better than they did in 1945. I hope every CDO is doubling down on the daily inport fire drills.
Wow....I always did enjoy your posts, now I know why. My cousin married a sailor from the USS Hancock when she was homeported in Alameda sometime around 69-70. I was a little kid and he took us on a tour of the ship. I fell in love with aircraft carriers that day.
Long time reader, first time commenter. The great unspoken question of what do you do when the materiel is expended holds equally true for IAMD. The strategy needs to include going after the archers as well as the arrows, and I don't see that happening.
I suspect we'll be potshotting missiles as they get to the front at the enemy.
and begging Honda to make more 2 cycle UAV engines
The Drill SGT: Can't do that. California's Gov. Newsom says 2 cycle engines are bad for humanity. No more 2 cycle leaf blowers, generators and UAVs. Sorry.
Frak California. (Not frac as in fossil fuels, that' no-go too) Honda is spinning up a new small engine plant in North Carolina. The question is - could they get enough domestically sourced components to keep up their output of 2M engines per year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npCc_8cHF4g
Sicinnus: Right there with you. I live in CA and own a nice little Honda, gasoline-powered generator, for earthquake preparedness. CA wants to eliminate the types of "premium residential power applications" (mowers, blowers, generators) described in the linked video.
"...for earthquake preparedness." Wink, wink. Nod, nod.
We know it is so you can keep you A/C running during rolling blackouts. It's okay. I'm sure enough of the Porch has spent time in third world countries to know how it goes. I won't tell.
I think there are more options to source it from, although Honda is at least on our side.
What I was thinking about is growing our UAV tool set on the lower end of spectrum by getting some UKR IP. Targets? All those SCS atoll bases would seem to be nicely in range of PI launched low tech. Those atolls may have a small offensive punch but they are early warning platforms, same as all those white hull CCP CG cutters. I'm not talking about $100M Global Hawks but $10k drones powered by rice burner engines and a smart phone targeting brain
CDR Sal, happy labor day. From your article, the concluding and pertinent section: "So, with our industrial capacity only a fraction of what it was 85 years ago, and our allies’ industrial capacity in even worse shape…how would we find the capabilities we know we will need to push the fight?
Who, if anyone, would we be able to rely on? How? With what?
Do we abandon the field, or do we push the fight forward?"
Difficult for me to imagine the current administration fighting. A new administration with a different attitude might choose to fight, but given our current state of readiness (how many carriers are in the Pacific right now?), must win very quickly (preferred munitions stocks are...inadequate to need...) or lose, go nuclear (unlikely), or also choose not to fight. Our regional allies (real and imagined...Japan, S. Korea, Philippines...others to be named later) have to be squinting at the odds boards and constantly re-evaluating their decision calculus...back the side that ends up losing, or stay out of the fight and negotiate favorable terms with the new regional hegemon. OBTW, as the players continue to test each other, and we enter one of the most favorable weather windows for something "bad" to happen in the region, a mistake could trigger a cascading series of events that catches everyone by surprise. Have to wonder what that Malaysian patrol boat hit...uncharted undersea mount?
I think we see a very real chance of China going kinetic after November ( lkely between November and December) if Trump can stop the steal. China knows they will need to use the Biden ambiguity as the opportunity. It will be very difficult for Trump to stop the war at that point. He will have to fight. China will make a lot of inroads and damage during its 60 day headstart.
Trump's stop the steal is what they are counting on to enable it. Good news, we agree on the timeline and I am sure we both don't like losing.
I hate losing.
" Stop the Steal " is a Slogan , Not a Factual Reality . Seems to be Working as the Slogan gets repeated .
Lol.
How's your chad hanging?
It's a relatively concise way to express the necessity of combatting and overcoming the various methods of cheating that were so evident in 2020.
Too Bad No One Presented any Factual Evidence in a Single Election Case . Facts vs Beliefs / Opinions . https://open.spotify.com/show/1ThqNEZVsv7DlMxEn7TSP1
600,000 + ballots received and counted illegally in PA. Tens of thousands (at least) ballots stuffed into unmonitored drop boxes and counted illegally in WI. Tens of thousands of "ballots", many with duplicate images, more which cannot be produced for audit, in GA. Tens of thousands of "ballots" that cannot be produced for audit in AZ. Tens of thousands of ballots illegally received and counted in MI after hours.
Five states all stop counting app. same time election evening while Trump is up in a landslide. After the necessary illegal ballots are brought in, he somehow loses a squeaker by less than 44,000 votes spread across three states.
If the election is un-auditable and the results are not reproduceable with paper ballots, all of which have chain of custody known to be legal according to laws in effect at the time, the election is invalid.
Sorry but you are just Regurgitating the Same Concocted MAGA BS . Why was no Evidence entered in any of the Multiple Court Filings by the Trump Campaign ? Why are so many Trump Lawyers Under going the Disbarment Process or have already been Dibarred ? Why were so many Trump Lawyers Indicted in Various States ? Why did Multiple Trump Lawyers Plead Guilty in Georgia ? Those are FACTS . F A C T S . These Lawyers had every Opportunity to Defend themselves . & Yet they were Devoid of Facts when it was time to Swear on a Bible . I Guess they Did Not want to Play the Perjury Roulette Game ???
Perhaps its tiime some US Foreign Military Assistance funds were allocated to the RN to expedite installation of EM Catapults and Arresting Gear on the QE and the POW? After all we have some RN Aviators over here flying F/A-18s and F-35s in the Fleet and they aren't learning that skillset for nothing.
Then figure out how to put that smaller carapukt on an LHA along with some ad hoc angled deck.
Suggest we keep AV-8B’s available in the Boneyard for the CVE’s we’ll have to improvise (from commandeered PRC containerships of course).
or as UAV carriers
Can’t just train Marine Aviators to fly these overnight.
On the other hand, what about stockpiling kits to turn some of the boneyard planes into pilotless wingmen? The metal has already been bent, no long leadtime crew pipeline...
True, but you can train aviators faster than you can build planes these days.
And… yes the Air Boss has a plan to increase throughput production in the event of war. They have contingency plans.
USAF is short 2,000 pilots. So maybe not.
When they start recalling and drafting people, everyone will want to be a pilot!
Will they? Piloting is now relatively safe because we haven't faced a peer air-force in a while. During WWII planes had a reputation as flying coffins.
I think "is now" might possibly be more accurately "was" in the next conflict, but point taken.
It would be better to use our own Jones act ships with the MAN diesels we have people familiar with and can license build and maintain.
Excellent history and "what if" scenario; all very apt, given that today is Victory Over Japan Day (may we never forget, although this Administration will give it a good leaving alone...)
As they say, history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. While your point is taken and it could happen - the WWII scenario happened due to the superiority in material, equipment (Zeros, more aircraft carriers, etc.), and experience (pilots) at the beginning of the war on the part of the Japanese. We were fighting against a superior force and new doctrine - rather than it being the other way around for the PLAN.
Some black swan, surprise terrorist attack on Norfolk and HII facilities? Maybe. Don't think it would be as bad as having 300 planes torpedo and bomb almost your entire surface fleet at the dock. And I think you are also assuming some combination of Chinese subs and DK missiles could actually hit the carriers at sea in these surface battles. I am sure you aren't thinking that Chinese surface action groups - or their carrier based air wings - could do it. Or has your opinion of the service sunk so low as to think them incompetent? Again, won't put it beyond them but it wasn't my impression - even with some of the retired very upset Flags I've spoken to.
You know Naval doctrine more than we do - do you think the Chiefs/Flags are going about it that way? I don't. I think they're sending the subs out for unrestricted warfare - chiefly against the Chinese boats first. Once they are pared back a bit, they'll go for the surface fleet. In addition, the Air Force will be tasked with long range attacks on the surface ships of the PLAN - from beyond their range to detect and interdict those strikes. But maybe they took out all our bombers, too, along with hamstringing the carriers? If we asked for anything from the Brits it would be to use their subs to restrict the Russians in their bastions so we could move more attack boats to the Pacific. I would also think that the Chinese would not be without losses and that their carriers and escorts would be depleted. So after, what, 5 battles you name - their carriers and surface groups all survive but ours are not just hit, but SUNK, taken out?
I think, too, the big deck amphibs would have a say in all of this.
Whatever their faults, and there are many, I think that the guys with all the gold leaf - some of them at least - know better and would fight the battle in a way that would surprise the Chinese. And you and me, hopefully.
A drone strike conducted by PRC infiltrators could wreck our bomber fleet as you only need to hit five bases with suicide FPV drones. That would take, what, a couple of cargo vans each to pull up outside a base perimeter?
Sure...go give it a try. One of the assessments of foreign intelligence about doing such things in the US is the snoopiness of our law enforcement. They don't think it would be that easy. First, you have to build all that stuff here - the racks in the cargo trucks to carry and launch the drones - and get the drones and create the explosives. Red flags going up when shipped to that newly purchased farm land through a Chinese front company. Then you have to have people to fly the drones fairly close - as there will be electronic countermeasures in place to interdict signals - you aren't running this from China via satellite datalink. So you have to have those folks around town near Whitman AFB for some time to prep all the communications and control equipment - and 50 or more military age Chinese guys hanging out is going to get attention.
It sounds easy, right? Just some enthusiasts out with a hundred or so drones carrying explosives to launch at a base?
I think you are way overestimating the competence of the government. And if drugs and people can be smuggled across our borders at an industrial scale then a bunch of DJI drones with small warheads would be no issue. There are plenty of Chinese nationals all over this country so a couple of guys driving a couple of vans isn't going to raise suspicion.
But it isn't just a "couple of guys driving a couple of vans". It takes workers building the stuff, people paying for materials, the materials themselves, and the operators of the equipment (First Person View - FPV - not AI). And just because drugs come across the border - or anything else - doesn't mean the government or law enforcement don't know about it. Some are involved in making it happen, yes, and others are keeping an eye out. But try to smuggle in the explosives you need. Done all the time, right?
Much of that can be done in the attacking country. Building, shipping, storing, and flying drones is perfectly legal in this country and is done every day. The only tricky part I can see is the fabrication & transport of the payload. It doesn't take a boatload of people; one person can do it depending on the number of drones required.
The trouble is if you are a Chinese illegal, male, military age and trying to do all of that on a farm bought by a Chinese front company. Don't think the intelligence agencies and law enforcement are all sleeping. The slickest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing people he doesn't exist, as the old saying goes, and the belief that our intelligence and law enforcement are inept works to their benefit. Not superhuman, but not asleep either.
What about dropping them from a balloon?
Ouch
You can do it from Mexico. Outside Brownsville and south of Tijuana. Say at 1am Saturday on some 3-day weekend. Do you think they will get an F-15 in the air before or after the first drone flies into the hangar bay of the carrier tied up at North Island? How long to arm, fuel and launch F-18s out of Lemoore? Vs the 2-3 hours for a swarm of flying lawnmowers to arrive?
"there will be electronic countermeasures in place"
Sure about that? Which frequencies?
" some time to prep all the communications and control equipment "
I think you overestimate the difficulties. A lot of the groundwork has already been done; see "drone light show", and "delivery drone" (example; https://www.manna.aero/,) .
Satellite, drone, or aerial photographs, maybe even in person reconnaissance; do the planning, programming, and rehearsals in <insert aggressor country here>,; buy or lease suitable launch site within range of target(s) (could be miles away); deliver pre-programmed autonomous drones to site using rental trucks; final assembly & checks at leisure; deploy drones at launch site at appropriate time, probably at night; send launch signal at zero hour; get in vehicle and leave before drones even reach target(s).
Would it be possible to run the drones from a charter aircraft flying a civilian pattern nearby?
I seem to remember an exercise where we used a commercial aircraft in a racetrack pattern to provide targeting guidance to missiles. I think it was San Diego, the plane was just over the Mexican border, etc. It was picked up on radar and eventually queried/interrogated/planes dispatched in the exercise but then dropped below radar and escaped. Missiles were already on the way.
So, yes you can control drones from a plane. These are, generally, FPVs so you have to maintain connection - so be close enough to overcome last minute jamming. Use an AI drone swarm, if you can program it, and it becomes easier.
Thanks
They could use a single container ship like the one docked now in the Elizabeth river.
Sure, but if you're going to try that, it is just as easy to bring in one or two or three ships loaded with ammonium nitrate fertilizer and explode them off the piers than trying to disable multiple carriers and ships with FPVs carrying 50lbs or less of explosives. And, again, you have to have operators on the cargo ship that are giving off electronic emissions to control all those drones. Gonna set off a few sensors and draw some attention.
Not drones. Cruise missiles for Hampton Roads. Sure a few drones but they want the carriers and the shipyard repair capacity and build capacity.
Just as easy to get a ballistic missile boat in range as it is to try to make all that happen with containerized cruise missiles and dual use electronics (in case they are inspected). If they're gonna try it, they know they best not miss. There are things built into the systems they might access for things like targeting from a Raider type ship that would mess with their program...that they may or may not be aware of.
Easier for a cargo vessel that’s already docked. China will astound the Normies when she goes kinetic. Her “popular war” and “total war” are legit threat axis. China has merchant vessels as a major asset in her upcoming naval war with the U.S. including Panama, Ports of Norfolk, Baltimore, NY, Houston, Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Sorry. I think in terms of Occam’s Razor. China’s first strike will be decisive.
Look at the time lost when the gate at NASSCOs graving dock failed. We are now building 2 in the dock. Is the intermediate gate in place? Would it work in a catastrophic failure of the first gate?
Great points.
Drones for inland and/or dispersed targets, like B-1 & B-2 bases.
When China goes kinetic, they will achieve the surprise they desire and their operators and crew will be martyrs. Our EW capacity as you mention is not available when the cargo vessel, with a shit ton of conex boxes that are capable of holding cruise missiles in battery, I’m referring to is literally docked half a mile from our carrier and big deck amphibs done the E river about 1/2 mile from pier 8 to pier 11. I can’t post the photos here due to the stack setup but you can do the research easy enough. We don’t monitor our sensors when the ships are pier side. So who is doing to detect a targeting emitter? As for FPV, China has already demonstrated the capability to monitor our ships in port. Look at Reagan recently in port Japan.
I think you're forgetting, or not aware, that NAS Norfolk at Chamber's Field is less than a mile east of the piers. And THEY are monitoring. Also only the top stack of commercial containers can pop up...the rest are buried. We do have systems that survey foreign flagged ships and can penetrate into cargo containers. Not to mention the GPS and manifest tracking for containers and contents.
No they are not “monitoring”. What watch floor is doing this and with what assets? I was a TAO on a Norfolk based aircraft carrier. I’m very familiar with this AOR and Chambers and Oceana. Your optimism doesn’t align with my experience. So there we are. Poo poo it at your own risk. I have pointed out a legitimate blind spot. I was also a force protection officer when our carrier was in
Dry dock at NNSY. We had very robust rules of engagement when we went into the shipyard but we didn’t have any sensors online for an asymmetrical missile attack. We held several discussions and tacex for that specific threat but the best we could was “low slow flyer”. Carriers and ships for that matter are very very vulnerable in port.
"you have to have operators...to control all those drones"
You are way behind the times. How many operators does a cruise missile have?
Just sink a few hulls full of cement in the right areas, that would delay the response for a couple weeks.
All good comments, but a thought with respect to "Don't think it would be as bad as having 300 planes torpedo and bomb almost your entire surface fleet at the dock."
One guy with a grudge, (or a different actual saboteur, I don't think we ever got the full story) started a fire that took out the BHR in San Diego. I suspect if the PRC decided the bubble was up, almost every ship in overhaul or extended maintenance would have similar issues, all at the same time, in every port. Even in the absence of our porous border, if they can get high level agents with Feinstein, Swallwell, and Cuomo/Hochul, there must be hundreds of low level sleepers in the yards and servicing our ships and aircraft.
True, but a lot of confounding aspects, the main one being that the automatic fire suppression system was disabled for repairs on the BHR. This won't always be the case. This is not to say they couldn't do something else and they are always probing base security, as we have seen.
What’s the reason that a ship would be ok for warfare in the Atlantic but not in the Pacific?
Ranger had a different smaller power plant. IRC she also had issues with water distillation. Not ideal for long areas of operations without resupply. She was too slow for the fast carrier operations and her flight deck was too light to support heavy torpedo aircraft and the F6 Hellcat. She made it the pacific after a refit but arrived too late to fight the Japanese. She never saw pacific combat.
Treaty limited. She was kinda' limited in facilities, airwing size, speed, and range. The Ranger probably only had half the range of the Essex.
She was comparable to the Independence Class, which while a useful class were pretty much shoved down King's throat by FDR.
And she was a first in class with a lot of unknowns in class and even basic aviation as her aircaft were biplane and light weight for her design and commission.
Ranger CV-4 suffered a lot from being a first try. Wasp CV-7 was a much better ship on the same tonnage as Ranger (we had figured out what we wanted with the Yorktowns). They were both more vulnerable than the Yorktowns, as protection had been sacrificed to squeeze under the treaty limits - but Wasp could still operate effectively as a fleet carrier and Ranger could not.
Correct. And sadly Wasp paid that price.
Yes. The contrast with the pounding that Hornet and Yorktown took before sinking (let alone Enterprise's resilience as a survivor) is remarkable.
Yorktown bought a lot of time and acquitted herself extremely well. Two battles. Major outcome. Hornet fought valiantly until she went down. Enterprise had a very astute captain and a well trained and experienced and motivated crew. Her fighting spirit helped explain how she stayed into the fight for 18 months continuously until temporarily being knocked out in 43. She was soon back and stayed in the fight. I would submit she was the single most important asset in the US military arsenal until the major Marine Divisions and 12th Army divisions came on line in 44.
This is a very disturbing,but probably accurate scenario .
I'm terrified how a Harris Whitehouse would address this.
Happy Labor Day
I am terrified how our entire government would respond. Ship a mobile Burger King to Palau to get the ball rolling?
Spam factory
Maybe a mobile Dairy Queen in the form of an F4U. At least they could get airborne after an EMP.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/cool-side-tropical-warfare-180969515/
"After lifting off on what he logged as an “oxygen system test,” Reinburg circled at 33,000 feet over Japanese-held Palau, watching anti-aircraft batteries—useless over 28,000 feet—waste irreplaceable ammunition trying to hit him. After 35 minutes of fireworks, he returned to Peleliu with a disappointing cargo. The mixture was cold but not frozen (the squadron scarfed it anyway), a failure the crew chalked up to its proximity to the hot engine."
And, as always, much of this is a moot discussion without the logistics/heavy lift capabilities to support a war effort thousands of miles from home. Additionally, depending on the damage, CVNs may have to transit to Bremerton instead of Pearl. Finally, China will not have anywhere close to the resource constraints realized by Japan in WW2. Combining all this with our degraded industrial capacity (enabled by Congresses and administrations of both parties), I suspect the Indo-Pac region out to Guam will quickly fall under Chinese control. Hawaii? TBD. The American public did this to themselves.
They can't actually go dry in the graving dock at Pearl. At least those with a bulbous bow.
We will face what will seem as insurmountable damage to our fleet. We will see the kinetics come to a stall as both sides try to develop replacements for repair capacity, berths for repairs, out right new construction and a work force of trade skills that will be needed to build new ships and aircraft. The hypothetical but historic situation described in the first paragraphs is noteworthy. However it doesn’t go far enough. Pearl will be out of commission, Panama Canal will be OOC and Bremerton will likely be out as well. Literally the only game in town will be Norfolk until we can get Mare Island and Charleston and Pascagoula back on line.
The war with China will be horrific in the first few weeks and months and the outcome won’t likely be decided for a decade. Yes it will take that long to rebuild our fleet and air forces.
This difference this time is various external influences will be manipulating the media and fomenting protests labor union strikes.
(People ignore that prior to June 1941 most of the union leadership was against Lend-Lease. That mysteriously changed on June 23.)
Very true.
"mysteriously"
I see what you did there
Can't speak to Pascagoula, but MI and Charleston are pretty much converted to civilian business use at this point. It would essentially require razing these businesses and starting at ground zero to restart these yards. Better off expanding NASSCO in SD and the shipyard in Philly. If Bremerton is gone, however, that may imply that the entire West Coast is a non-starter from a repair and logistics perspective.
During the winter and spring of 42, the US military had carte blanch to seize or buy entire industries including towns and counties for war production. MI and Charleston will play ball.
Reacquiring the properties won't be the primary issue. It will be rebuilding from ground zero. I'd submit it will be easier to expand existing shipbuilding and maintenance facilities. However, this will be severely constrained by the lack of skilled labor in the shipbuilding trades, but just as critically, a lack of technology-based resources (e.g., the US currently produces only 10-15 percent of its semiconductor chip needs). The US will need to reconstitute a significant portion of its industrial base to wage war successfully, but this will first necessitate rebuilding the resources for these industries. This would be at least a 5 year requirement. By this point, China is entrenched in its new territories. Right now, the only way I see the US defeating China is if the government has the will to use strategic weapons, and sacrifice large portions of the civilian population when China retaliates in kind.
Oh you are correct. Does the Bay Area posses a mental capacity to hire workers? No.
I don't think it's a will issue—besides, the companies and the federal government would be hiring, not municipalities or the states. The worker pool no longer exists. That's one of the reasons claimed by the shipyards for their inability to produce subs and ships on schedule.
"to hire workers"
extraneous, unnecessary to make the point.
We need a real fast way to build the most elaborate minefields ever. We need deterrence which is many and cheap.
See above Proceedings article suggesting Alameda and Sparrows Point.
Here is the argument for Alameda and Sparrows Point. I like this suggestion more than any I have heard. There is actually enough space at these 2 spaces without quite so much environmental impact. Affordability for the work force would be the problem. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/september/case-fifth-naval-shipyard
We should go with Alameda and reopen MI as an auxiliary overflow.
Guilt the Bay area into using the world's greatest natural harbor as a port.
I love this idea, the more so since I grew up in Alameda. However I cannot see it working out. If I'm the Chicoms and I get a whiff of any idea the US is going to reconstitute a naval presence in the greatest natural harbor in the world, I'm going to drop a few million into the right politician's pockets to ensure that it never happens.
Hunters Point still has the drydocks. Don't know about the pumps (which the US doesn't make) but the drydock and gates are still there.
So will all our satellites and underwater cables.
would anyone lend/lease to us? china, maybe? 😅
We can opine all we want about a surface navy that may or may not survive the first 60 days of a global conflict mostly fought along the lines of the Pacific and Atlantic theaters. But, it’s somewhat moot if the senior officers are not qualified to lead the forces necessary to even be sunk at the water line which of course they will be. One commenter said the American people did this to themselves and so they have, the outcomes very uncertain if China decides to launch multiple preemptive strikes. This said what is really in China’s self interest, not sure a hot war with a large trading partner with an already fragile economy is the best outcome for the CCP. Rather long and protracted bites at this and that island chain a deal with Taiwan, etc., allowing the sleeping tiger USA to continue to wallow in self pity and distractions of all sorts, whilst frittering away its independence and way of life. Ultimately the Chinese win and a degraded USA slumps off into the dustbin of history. It’s happened before to empires and will happen again. History rhymes.
💯
I could see it. Even more interesting, I could see F-35s flying from a Japanese Izumo-class "destroyer" joining in the mix.
If you lose the ships, and, if you no longer have the marine shipyards to rebuild them, let alone the time, manpower, or money.....................then falling back will be the only sound course, while the building of new, replacement, or alternative Navy ships will have to be done elsewhere, while subs hold the horde back as best they can.
Ships will be built In the heartland of the country to give them a depth of defense, since the coastal ports will be problematic. so, ships that can be built faster, at less costs, requiring less manpower to either build or man afterward. smaller and faster than the lost carriers and other surface vessels in order not to be worth targeting with tactical nukes; and more numerous, fielding smaller attack aircraft (aka "drones") to move forward...........and then, deployed directly from the heartland.
China will be bloodied as bad. Her shipyards will be destroyed and she will have to figure out how to beat us from reasserting our dominance. Lots of yolks will be broke. Lots. And it will be a total war with many of us recalled to active duty. That may be a very good thing.
I surely do applaud your "light at the end of the tunnel". Still, just as you have always said....China will go big, and fast, and first.
it's going to be a long, long treacherous tunnel...
Oh for sure. I can’t wait to get my reissue of Digi-cams.
Served aboard USS Hancock (CVA-19) 1973-75. Stood watch in CIC just 20 feet away from the place that kamikaze hit during the Okinawa Campaign. Even 30 years after, you could tell it was a serious hit. The scars were still there. Sobering for this 25-year-old kid. During that time we had a serial arsonist onboard, 4 fires that I recall, was on duty for 3 of them and got involved...an empty 5"/38 ammo handling room port side forward, refueling station starboard side forward, post office, a berthing compartment below the hanger deck. All were gotten under control quickly but were terribly frightening to me, a "novice" firefighter as an EW1. I think of that kamikaze now and know we had it better than they did in 1945. I hope every CDO is doubling down on the daily inport fire drills.
Your stories always bring back the reality of being at sea, and the emotive moments that made it a heightened existence.
Wow....I always did enjoy your posts, now I know why. My cousin married a sailor from the USS Hancock when she was homeported in Alameda sometime around 69-70. I was a little kid and he took us on a tour of the ship. I fell in love with aircraft carriers that day.