Lots of minable waters there between China and Taiwan. Submarines can deliver mines fairly covertly, albeit in limited numbers, but air/surface delivery would most likely be the key.
Great point! My theory has always been a more subtle “political” takeover - China will simply move their puppets into the leadership, arrest everyone else and Voila!
I've often said we should be working on long range flyable (or drone launched) mines and at the first outbreak of hostilities, mine every port in China. Cut off their supply lines and keep ships still in port bottled up, and those at sea, depending upon stores already at sea. Since they aren't used to resupply at sea, it will be a major dent in their operations.
Their supply lines are going to be a lot shorter than ours and it is going to take a major effort to shut theirs down. Not enough work being done on that.
The Pentagon is assuming that invasion is the only scenario. What happens if China destroys Taiwan's infrastructure with missiles and imposes a blockade?
Putting too much faith in the ability of U.S. submarines to defeat an a heavily escorted amphibious invasion of a large Asian island? I hope that SUBPAC has learned from the lessons of 1941...
We’re raised on the exploits of Fluckey, Morton, and O’Kane in those waters. If you ask my opinion, the hard part would be keeping submarines out of there. Even with Rickover’s caution, when “Thunder Below” is part of the reading list, a certain aggressiveness is part of the force. What’s needed is precision bathymetric information. Understanding the sea floor is better places to hide. On the other hand, how many successful torpedo attacks would it take for the PLAN to back off? And keeping the beachhead open is more difficult when ships are lost.
First time I've ever seen that Taiwan Strait bathymetric chart, and it is eye-opening. My inner-geologist tells me that in Pleistocene time, when sea levels were 300-400 feet lower than today, it was a land bridge. So bottom conditions are likely a bedrock erosional surface, now covered by relatively thin layers of silt, mud and other outwash sediment from the mainland and the island. I suspect that Chinese scholars have performed extremely thorough studies on acoustic propagation and bottom bounce. And along those lines, the "other side" can lay mines as well. No doubt, readers can envision what kinds of mines.
To put these numbers in two very simple perspectives - (a) If a 688 Class sub we’re standing vertical in most of the Taiwan Straight, half of it would be sticking out above the water; and (b) The extensive PRC fishing fleet (a wholly owned subsidiary of the CCP) would be able to trawl for enemy submarines. As said, I realize that both of these pictures are simplistic, but I think they make Sal’s point.
Yes, the Chinese are going to set up traps for attack subs. They would have trouble reading us in those red and yellow areas due to acoustic returns - heck ocean noise and shrimp - but we would also have a lot of trouble hearing them. But they have a lot of noisy old subs and we would only commit a limited number of subs due to commitments, perceived overmatch, etc....so they would hide their quieter Type 95s and run some noisy boats. We respond by firing and reveal ourselves and get sniped. War of attrition and they have the local correlation of forces on their side.
For now, I would actually build as many B-21s and LRASM-ERs as I can. China invades, hit their surface fleet with a few thousands LRASMs, no more invasion (and hit the sub pens and Refueling and Replenishment hubs). Subs aren't going to launch an invasion. Maximum effect, minimal risk.
SSN(X) estimated cost per hull at $6.2 billion? So that likely translates into what? $7 to $8 billion per hull once things get dialed in?? Or maybe we'll get lucky and break $10B/hull...
What do we do when one day we wake up and find that multiple 747 passenger jets have landed in Twain full of troops and that cargo ship that just pulled into the harbor is full of Chinese Marines also those Chinese tourists are actually Chinese sabototors and most of Twain military was wiped out in a mass suprise blastic missle attack do we still go to was to defend Twain win the war is half lost ? Everyone keeps dream like the invasion of Twain we be like the Allie invasion of Europe and I'm like why should it be
By this time, with their stated goals of "reunification", the Chinese have most certainly set up a SOSUS line style thing in areas they feel would be the most likely avenues of approach for an underwater vehicle. So "stealth" would be a rare commodity particularly in that area. I mean seriously, the channel of the Taiwan Straits in 80 miles? Talk about hemming in your forces.
Lots of minable waters there between China and Taiwan. Submarines can deliver mines fairly covertly, albeit in limited numbers, but air/surface delivery would most likely be the key.
Great point! My theory has always been a more subtle “political” takeover - China will simply move their puppets into the leadership, arrest everyone else and Voila!
Well, that makes things.... unpleasant.
Time for Phillipines-based conventional subs?
Ah, maps and charts. Where would operational planning, or historical understanding, be without them?
I've often said we should be working on long range flyable (or drone launched) mines and at the first outbreak of hostilities, mine every port in China. Cut off their supply lines and keep ships still in port bottled up, and those at sea, depending upon stores already at sea. Since they aren't used to resupply at sea, it will be a major dent in their operations.
Their supply lines are going to be a lot shorter than ours and it is going to take a major effort to shut theirs down. Not enough work being done on that.
The Pentagon is assuming that invasion is the only scenario. What happens if China destroys Taiwan's infrastructure with missiles and imposes a blockade?
How many personnel and how much money is this country willing to sacrifice for Taiwan? My guess is zero.
Putting too much faith in the ability of U.S. submarines to defeat an a heavily escorted amphibious invasion of a large Asian island? I hope that SUBPAC has learned from the lessons of 1941...
https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2021/december/bleak-december
We’re raised on the exploits of Fluckey, Morton, and O’Kane in those waters. If you ask my opinion, the hard part would be keeping submarines out of there. Even with Rickover’s caution, when “Thunder Below” is part of the reading list, a certain aggressiveness is part of the force. What’s needed is precision bathymetric information. Understanding the sea floor is better places to hide. On the other hand, how many successful torpedo attacks would it take for the PLAN to back off? And keeping the beachhead open is more difficult when ships are lost.
First time I've ever seen that Taiwan Strait bathymetric chart, and it is eye-opening. My inner-geologist tells me that in Pleistocene time, when sea levels were 300-400 feet lower than today, it was a land bridge. So bottom conditions are likely a bedrock erosional surface, now covered by relatively thin layers of silt, mud and other outwash sediment from the mainland and the island. I suspect that Chinese scholars have performed extremely thorough studies on acoustic propagation and bottom bounce. And along those lines, the "other side" can lay mines as well. No doubt, readers can envision what kinds of mines.
To put these numbers in two very simple perspectives - (a) If a 688 Class sub we’re standing vertical in most of the Taiwan Straight, half of it would be sticking out above the water; and (b) The extensive PRC fishing fleet (a wholly owned subsidiary of the CCP) would be able to trawl for enemy submarines. As said, I realize that both of these pictures are simplistic, but I think they make Sal’s point.
Yes, the Chinese are going to set up traps for attack subs. They would have trouble reading us in those red and yellow areas due to acoustic returns - heck ocean noise and shrimp - but we would also have a lot of trouble hearing them. But they have a lot of noisy old subs and we would only commit a limited number of subs due to commitments, perceived overmatch, etc....so they would hide their quieter Type 95s and run some noisy boats. We respond by firing and reveal ourselves and get sniped. War of attrition and they have the local correlation of forces on their side.
Then there is this, if it is real: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/china-claims-its-new-submarines-are-quieter-ever-190011?page=0%2C1
Which may explain this: https://www.naval-technology.com/features/darpa-silent-mhd-magnetic-drives-for-replacing-naval-propellers/#:~:text=The%20US%20Defense%20Advances%20Research,magnets%20and%20an%20electric%20current.
For now, I would actually build as many B-21s and LRASM-ERs as I can. China invades, hit their surface fleet with a few thousands LRASMs, no more invasion (and hit the sub pens and Refueling and Replenishment hubs). Subs aren't going to launch an invasion. Maximum effect, minimal risk.
SSN(X) estimated cost per hull at $6.2 billion? So that likely translates into what? $7 to $8 billion per hull once things get dialed in?? Or maybe we'll get lucky and break $10B/hull...
What do we do when one day we wake up and find that multiple 747 passenger jets have landed in Twain full of troops and that cargo ship that just pulled into the harbor is full of Chinese Marines also those Chinese tourists are actually Chinese sabototors and most of Twain military was wiped out in a mass suprise blastic missle attack do we still go to was to defend Twain win the war is half lost ? Everyone keeps dream like the invasion of Twain we be like the Allie invasion of Europe and I'm like why should it be
Use Drones to target ships, lock them up for a stand off attack by a Surface or subsurface engagement at distance.
All mines laid don't have to be live or hidden, a few Swift boat style runs dropping a few mines and a lot of decoys and dummies.
Can a Mine or two be delivered off a small fast boat?
By this time, with their stated goals of "reunification", the Chinese have most certainly set up a SOSUS line style thing in areas they feel would be the most likely avenues of approach for an underwater vehicle. So "stealth" would be a rare commodity particularly in that area. I mean seriously, the channel of the Taiwan Straits in 80 miles? Talk about hemming in your forces.