I recall the thought from "Red Storm Rising" when the skipper was commenting that calling the state of the US Merchant Marine bad was like calling gang rape a minor social deviation.
A country can decide to be sovereign, or by default decide to be another country's play thing. [I wanted to use a word that used to describe female dogs, but in the interest of being polite, I'll say "play thing". I fully believe in international trade, but that trade can never be an excuse for prostrating ourselves to any other country, especially one as evil as the PRC. PRC actions have been pretty consistent since 1948 - conquer and subjugate using any method that works. As Sal points out, anyone claiming to be The Smartest People in the Room™ aren’t. We don't have to guess at that because the actions of the so-called "best & brightest" and the outcomes of those actions speak for themselves.
A sobering reminder of how far the west has fallen. I would put in that in the merchant shipping area, we have done it to ourselves with union scale everything.
The evisceration of our Merchant Marine was the perfect storm between owners, unions and guvmint; they couldn't have been more effective if that had been their intent.
No, the Rust Belt was created by skyrocketed energy and regulatory compliance costs. Decline of water shipping began with the first railroad, and accelerated with roadbuilding, especially the National Defense Highway Act.
Shipping by water is far cheaper than railroads. The additional costs of shipping had a serious effect on the rust belt. It was not the only thing, but it had serious influence as well.
We ship commodities on water, but not finished goods. There's a reason why economic development enthusiasts say Ohio is 24 hours away from 60% of the US/Canada population by truck.
Taking this with yesterday's post on the newest Chinese massive seaport and drydock in CAMBODIA should be a huge wake up to anyone paying attention to this century's "Great Game."
China thinks and plans for the long term, (decades or centuries) with national strategic interests at the core of its decision making. Commercial decisions are driven by, or at least linked to and supportive of, national interests.
American decision making is driven by hoping to win the next two year or four year election cycle by passing out "free stuff" or tugging on emotions to assuage hurt feelings or guilt over suffering somewhere and squandering billions of dollars on nations who hate us. Very damn few of the oppressed people or evil oppressors around the world are a vital U.S. national interest. And very few will be rescued regardless of how much American blood or treasure is expended to civilize people who do not want to be civilized.
Economic actions can be as decisive as military actions, and the self inflicted idiotic obsession with "green" and other environmental crap will bring us to our knees and destroy our nation just as surely as if military strikes wiped out our basic infrastructure in an EMP attack.
The enemy is not just outside the gates, but barricaded in our education establishment, the media, and concentrated in one political party condemning our culture, traditions, economy, and religions. They are successfully imposing self loathing, Marxism, anarchy, class warfare, anti-militarism, depraved notions of sexuality, and socialistic destruction of the means of production under the pretext of some sort of environmental miracle cure to counter the fluctuations of climate and weather.
I see nothing to indicate that China will not replace the U.S. as the dominant world power within the next five to ten years. The recent double downgrade of the U.S. dollar and inevitable rise in interest costs may cause our collapse even sooner.
China will not replace the U.S as the dominant world power until they consign communism to V.I.'s "dustbin of history." A planned economy cannot outperform a free-market, free-trading economy. Humans are not smarter than the market.
We don't need to fear communist China; we are not going to "collapse." That's fear being stoked, "Only I can save you," says the Orange Francisco Franco wanna be.
What is it that makes America, "Great." It is individual liberty; the ability to participate in the marketplace, to use our god-given talents in a way that we deem proper. Communists command; a free people do what they want. Liberty is messy. Some people are jerks, give them freedom and some of them will do jerk things. But, not all of them. It's the mess, the chaos, the freedom that gives our economic system such an advantage. And, some of those jerks, some turn out to be Andrew Carnegie.
Will we sell the communists the rope they intend to use to hang us? Damm straight we will! We will sell them the rope, and we will sell them so many kinds, so many varieties, so many colors that they will go bankrupt trying to pay for it all. We did it to the USSR, and we will do it to Communist China.
We have so many advantages that often aren’t considered: we are surrounded by 2 oceans and weak, friendly neighbors. China is surrounded by enemies. We grow our own food. China imports much of it. We are energy independent. China’s oil could be cut off at two major chokepoints: Hormuz or singapore. China’s population is collapsing. We are still growing. And that’s just for starters....
We have big challenges, but we can do it, and we will.
Our agricultural trade deficit is on track to be US$14.4B with a population of 330M. China's agricultural trade deficit last year was US$135B with a population of 1.4B. China's fertility rate is 1.28 compared to ethnic Asians in the US of 1.35. The aggregate US fertility rate would look downright European is we didn't have ethnic Hispanics with a fertility rate of 1.89 averaging in - combined with the free flow of the group across the southern "border". Our refinery capacity is largely reliant on crude oil imports. We could build/modify them to use domestic oil, but that would require a lot of steel piping and pressure vessels. At least the pipelines feeding us from Canada are safe.
The US ag deficit is from higher-valued products. Winter vegetables and fruits we can't grow here. Although tbf to China, they are self-sufficient in rice.
While I agree with your thesis,a free market country is not one that bans gas stoves, mandates mpg of automobiles, constrains the development of safe nuclear power and a host of other similar stupid decisions. Our experts have allowed or caused capabilities critical to our prosperity, such as shipping, information technology, an metal manufacturing to be squandered, and they seem to be in a headlong rush to cripple basic agriculture under the guise of “net zero” and other nonsense.
Yep. Political decisions are made in the context of elections cycles, and too often business decisions with an eye on the quarterly earnings report or next 10-Q filing.
The general point is sound, but the e xample less so. We are the #3 importer of scrap to recycle, meaning we need more scrap per year than we can find domestically. I'm much less interested in commodities and more interested in what we can and can't do. What can't we do that we need to do in composites? What can't we do and need to do in supercomputing and AI?
We figured out how to go without rubber once. I'd like to know that we have the smarts to figure out how to do anything. That's what gives us our edge. Yes, we need more of some things than the other guy, this isn't one of them.
The chemistry of recycled steel is much different than that made from pig iron. It has caused a few problems with structural steel as the recycled component has increased.
It largely depends on how much Ladle metallurgy you do and how selective you are with what goes in your furnace. Copper (from car wiring harnesses etc) is much harder to remove from the melt vs from the shredder conveyer, but a lot of contaminates can be removed with additional processing. But a common solution is DRI briquets or pig iron added to dilute contamination to an acceptable level.
Theory to practice. Indonesia still has rubber plantations and is expanding them year-over-year. Who is growing Russian Dandelions at even a fraction of the same scale?
Doc Cornish at OSU-ATI is working on getting us doing it. Also, there is some guayle (not sure of the spelling) being grown in the Southwest again. DOD is trying to get that scaled up I know.
"We are the #3 importer of scrap to recycle, meaning we need more scrap per year than we can find domestically."
That's an interesting stat...
The largest export out of the vestiges of the Chicago Port complex (for a period of time the World's largest in the late 19th Century) is scrap metal from a facility at the mouth of the Calumet River...
These " 'borg boats" are a routine sight loading up and then heading to Europe.
This is so much worse than I thought. Is this decline permanent? Is there anyone anywhere left that has the will and ability to change things, or is it just too late??? What hollow shell of the nation we remember are we leaving to our kids and grandkids??
"a scavenger living off the hard work of previous generations"
A more apt description of the remains of Western Civilization as embodied in the British Isles, Europe, and North America in the early 21st century will be difficult to find.
For anyone who doesn't track US agriculture, the "bread basket of the world" is about to become a net importer. The fundamentals around rising input costs is unlikely to change that in the near future. Yay team!
"This most recent prediction will be the largest agricultural trade deficit in over 70 years if realized. Before we get into the factors influencing this shift in the agricultural trade outlook, it’s important to note how a trade deficit could impact American farmers and ranchers. As American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall highlighted in a House Ag Committee hearing, healthy and diversified agricultural export trade creates a more productive and resilient domestic food system. When agricultural exports decline, U.S. farm products that would otherwise be exported are funneled back into the local market, which can lead to suppressed prices for American farmers at a time when input costs are on the rise."
It seems that the United Kingdom is now an appendage to The City – that one square mile of London between St. Paul’s, the Tower and the Thames where all the financial institutions are located. The rest of the country is for tourists who want to see museums, castles, cathedrals, estates and royal processions.
Hard to believe this is the same country where Sir Henry Bessemer invented the process that bears his name to mass produce steel or Isambard Kingdom Brunel built big iron ships powered by steam and propelled by screws.
What happens to Britain when the rest of the world figures out that it doesn’t even need her financial services? If you can take away the factories and shipyards can you not handle financing, insurance, classification, brokering and chartering?
To openly eviscerate an enemy nation's ability to produce war materiel, without suffering a single casualty, at a cost of only £70 million, and doing it all with the enemy's deluded approval … now THAT is the kind of warfare that would make Sun Tzu proud.
Those filthy commie bastards have my grudging respect.
Shocking, chilling! Sold to a Chinese company in 2020. 2020!!! Really? In 2020 they didn't look beyond their own protective masks and the reason for wearing them?
...but, but, but, pollution, carbon emissions, capitalism, greed, etc.
Of note is the the USA us not even ON the Mership chart.
You've got it right; all of this "green" BS is just that. Gaslighting at best.
oooops...didn't have my readers on; I guess we ARE on the Mership chart;somewhere in the "failing" category.
Oooops...shoulda had my readers on; we ARE on the Mership chart; somewhere in the "failing" category
Sorry, shoulda had my readers on; we are actually on the Mership chart; in the "inconsequential" category
I recall the thought from "Red Storm Rising" when the skipper was commenting that calling the state of the US Merchant Marine bad was like calling gang rape a minor social deviation.
Of course the definition of "minor social deviation " was different in the 80's
Green is and always has been a useful tool of the Soviets and now China to subvert our industry and national strength.
We had a President recently who said something of the sort but was roundly ridiculed for it.
A country can decide to be sovereign, or by default decide to be another country's play thing. [I wanted to use a word that used to describe female dogs, but in the interest of being polite, I'll say "play thing". I fully believe in international trade, but that trade can never be an excuse for prostrating ourselves to any other country, especially one as evil as the PRC. PRC actions have been pretty consistent since 1948 - conquer and subjugate using any method that works. As Sal points out, anyone claiming to be The Smartest People in the Room™ aren’t. We don't have to guess at that because the actions of the so-called "best & brightest" and the outcomes of those actions speak for themselves.
A sobering reminder of how far the west has fallen. I would put in that in the merchant shipping area, we have done it to ourselves with union scale everything.
The evisceration of our Merchant Marine was the perfect storm between owners, unions and guvmint; they couldn't have been more effective if that had been their intent.
Thank the Jones act. That has also played hob with inland shipping as well. Much of the rust belt got that way because of the Jones Act.
No, the Rust Belt was created by skyrocketed energy and regulatory compliance costs. Decline of water shipping began with the first railroad, and accelerated with roadbuilding, especially the National Defense Highway Act.
Shipping by water is far cheaper than railroads. The additional costs of shipping had a serious effect on the rust belt. It was not the only thing, but it had serious influence as well.
We ship commodities on water, but not finished goods. There's a reason why economic development enthusiasts say Ohio is 24 hours away from 60% of the US/Canada population by truck.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_2912,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcc886d1-9788-46a3-bb76-78c319dedb25_1600x900.jpeg
Good to know... so is anyone up for the Barbie movie?
Taking this with yesterday's post on the newest Chinese massive seaport and drydock in CAMBODIA should be a huge wake up to anyone paying attention to this century's "Great Game."
China thinks and plans for the long term, (decades or centuries) with national strategic interests at the core of its decision making. Commercial decisions are driven by, or at least linked to and supportive of, national interests.
American decision making is driven by hoping to win the next two year or four year election cycle by passing out "free stuff" or tugging on emotions to assuage hurt feelings or guilt over suffering somewhere and squandering billions of dollars on nations who hate us. Very damn few of the oppressed people or evil oppressors around the world are a vital U.S. national interest. And very few will be rescued regardless of how much American blood or treasure is expended to civilize people who do not want to be civilized.
Economic actions can be as decisive as military actions, and the self inflicted idiotic obsession with "green" and other environmental crap will bring us to our knees and destroy our nation just as surely as if military strikes wiped out our basic infrastructure in an EMP attack.
The enemy is not just outside the gates, but barricaded in our education establishment, the media, and concentrated in one political party condemning our culture, traditions, economy, and religions. They are successfully imposing self loathing, Marxism, anarchy, class warfare, anti-militarism, depraved notions of sexuality, and socialistic destruction of the means of production under the pretext of some sort of environmental miracle cure to counter the fluctuations of climate and weather.
I see nothing to indicate that China will not replace the U.S. as the dominant world power within the next five to ten years. The recent double downgrade of the U.S. dollar and inevitable rise in interest costs may cause our collapse even sooner.
"A republic, if you can keep it," indeed.
China will not replace the U.S as the dominant world power until they consign communism to V.I.'s "dustbin of history." A planned economy cannot outperform a free-market, free-trading economy. Humans are not smarter than the market.
We don't need to fear communist China; we are not going to "collapse." That's fear being stoked, "Only I can save you," says the Orange Francisco Franco wanna be.
What is it that makes America, "Great." It is individual liberty; the ability to participate in the marketplace, to use our god-given talents in a way that we deem proper. Communists command; a free people do what they want. Liberty is messy. Some people are jerks, give them freedom and some of them will do jerk things. But, not all of them. It's the mess, the chaos, the freedom that gives our economic system such an advantage. And, some of those jerks, some turn out to be Andrew Carnegie.
Will we sell the communists the rope they intend to use to hang us? Damm straight we will! We will sell them the rope, and we will sell them so many kinds, so many varieties, so many colors that they will go bankrupt trying to pay for it all. We did it to the USSR, and we will do it to Communist China.
From your lips to God's ears.
As is commonly said in another of our theater of operations, Insha'Allah!!!
We have so many advantages that often aren’t considered: we are surrounded by 2 oceans and weak, friendly neighbors. China is surrounded by enemies. We grow our own food. China imports much of it. We are energy independent. China’s oil could be cut off at two major chokepoints: Hormuz or singapore. China’s population is collapsing. We are still growing. And that’s just for starters....
We have big challenges, but we can do it, and we will.
Our agricultural trade deficit is on track to be US$14.4B with a population of 330M. China's agricultural trade deficit last year was US$135B with a population of 1.4B. China's fertility rate is 1.28 compared to ethnic Asians in the US of 1.35. The aggregate US fertility rate would look downright European is we didn't have ethnic Hispanics with a fertility rate of 1.89 averaging in - combined with the free flow of the group across the southern "border". Our refinery capacity is largely reliant on crude oil imports. We could build/modify them to use domestic oil, but that would require a lot of steel piping and pressure vessels. At least the pipelines feeding us from Canada are safe.
The US ag deficit is from higher-valued products. Winter vegetables and fruits we can't grow here. Although tbf to China, they are self-sufficient in rice.
While I agree with your thesis,a free market country is not one that bans gas stoves, mandates mpg of automobiles, constrains the development of safe nuclear power and a host of other similar stupid decisions. Our experts have allowed or caused capabilities critical to our prosperity, such as shipping, information technology, an metal manufacturing to be squandered, and they seem to be in a headlong rush to cripple basic agriculture under the guise of “net zero” and other nonsense.
Gas stoves are shit. They make kids sick. We ripped ours out and moved to induction. It’s great! Instant heat.
Yep. Political decisions are made in the context of elections cycles, and too often business decisions with an eye on the quarterly earnings report or next 10-Q filing.
The general point is sound, but the e xample less so. We are the #3 importer of scrap to recycle, meaning we need more scrap per year than we can find domestically. I'm much less interested in commodities and more interested in what we can and can't do. What can't we do that we need to do in composites? What can't we do and need to do in supercomputing and AI?
We figured out how to go without rubber once. I'd like to know that we have the smarts to figure out how to do anything. That's what gives us our edge. Yes, we need more of some things than the other guy, this isn't one of them.
Beg to differ. Sal pointed out quite well the difference between making steel and recycling it. The two are not the same.
The chemistry of recycled steel is much different than that made from pig iron. It has caused a few problems with structural steel as the recycled component has increased.
It largely depends on how much Ladle metallurgy you do and how selective you are with what goes in your furnace. Copper (from car wiring harnesses etc) is much harder to remove from the melt vs from the shredder conveyer, but a lot of contaminates can be removed with additional processing. But a common solution is DRI briquets or pig iron added to dilute contamination to an acceptable level.
You know what matches well with the brainpower that goes into synthetic rubber? A buttload of stainless steel combined with non-renewable energy. http://129.71.204.160/goldenseal/spring12/rubber.html
We didn't go without rubber. We developed a synthetic rubber industry, plus grew Russian Dandelion and other plants for rubber.
Same point
Theory to practice. Indonesia still has rubber plantations and is expanding them year-over-year. Who is growing Russian Dandelions at even a fraction of the same scale?
Doc Cornish at OSU-ATI is working on getting us doing it. Also, there is some guayle (not sure of the spelling) being grown in the Southwest again. DOD is trying to get that scaled up I know.
"We are the #3 importer of scrap to recycle, meaning we need more scrap per year than we can find domestically."
That's an interesting stat...
The largest export out of the vestiges of the Chicago Port complex (for a period of time the World's largest in the late 19th Century) is scrap metal from a facility at the mouth of the Calumet River...
These " 'borg boats" are a routine sight loading up and then heading to Europe.
https://youtu.be/IUTuxwvpnG4?si=QG1q2s51_D5XO3t0
Yet more bad news...
This is so much worse than I thought. Is this decline permanent? Is there anyone anywhere left that has the will and ability to change things, or is it just too late??? What hollow shell of the nation we remember are we leaving to our kids and grandkids??
It would not have to be permanent if we had the time to rectify the stupidity. I doubt we have the time.
We are so far down the hill, looking back is like looking up at Mt. Everest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwuVp7JtQyU
"a scavenger living off the hard work of previous generations"
A more apt description of the remains of Western Civilization as embodied in the British Isles, Europe, and North America in the early 21st century will be difficult to find.
For anyone who doesn't track US agriculture, the "bread basket of the world" is about to become a net importer. The fundamentals around rising input costs is unlikely to change that in the near future. Yay team!
https://agamerica.com/blog/q1-2023-agricultural-trade-outlook/
"This most recent prediction will be the largest agricultural trade deficit in over 70 years if realized. Before we get into the factors influencing this shift in the agricultural trade outlook, it’s important to note how a trade deficit could impact American farmers and ranchers. As American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall highlighted in a House Ag Committee hearing, healthy and diversified agricultural export trade creates a more productive and resilient domestic food system. When agricultural exports decline, U.S. farm products that would otherwise be exported are funneled back into the local market, which can lead to suppressed prices for American farmers at a time when input costs are on the rise."
Disgraceful
The idea is to surrender world dominance to China, why I don't know.
Quarterly statements.
No doubt and 10 percent
The answer to "Why?" is no mystery if a nation's elites share the enemy's worldview, are on the enemy's payroll, or both.
Great piece.
It seems that the United Kingdom is now an appendage to The City – that one square mile of London between St. Paul’s, the Tower and the Thames where all the financial institutions are located. The rest of the country is for tourists who want to see museums, castles, cathedrals, estates and royal processions.
Hard to believe this is the same country where Sir Henry Bessemer invented the process that bears his name to mass produce steel or Isambard Kingdom Brunel built big iron ships powered by steam and propelled by screws.
What happens to Britain when the rest of the world figures out that it doesn’t even need her financial services? If you can take away the factories and shipyards can you not handle financing, insurance, classification, brokering and chartering?
Fear not. Lord Cameron of Brexit is back as the Tory Foreign Minister. Not often you see a rat gettting on board a sinking ship.
To openly eviscerate an enemy nation's ability to produce war materiel, without suffering a single casualty, at a cost of only £70 million, and doing it all with the enemy's deluded approval … now THAT is the kind of warfare that would make Sun Tzu proud.
Those filthy commie bastards have my grudging respect.
Oh my, it is hard to believe the UK has slipped below the US in merchant ships. I hope your navy is in better shape than ours. That is another day...
I have some bad news.....
Shocking, chilling! Sold to a Chinese company in 2020. 2020!!! Really? In 2020 they didn't look beyond their own protective masks and the reason for wearing them?